Democracy Reaps a Whirlwind in Peru : Popular Mood Turns on President as Economy Spins Into Chaos

Twice in the past 40 years, constitutionally elected governments in Peru have been toppled by military coups. On Oct. 27, 1948, the army turned on President Jose Luis Bustamante and sent him packing on a plane bound for Buenos Aires. As Gen. Manuel Odria installed his conservative military dictatorship, poet Martin Adan sighed and wrote, “We have returned to normalcy.”

Twenty years later, during the night of Oct. 3, 1968, President Fernando Belaunde Terry was awakened rudely and hustled out of the country on a jet bound (again) for Buenos Aires. Don Fernando settled into exile with little but his dignity intact as Gen. Juan Velasco Alvarado consolidated the new military junta in power.

Velasco’s revolution differed somewhat from Odria’s in that the revolution of 1968 brought into power an intensely nationalistic left-wing regime while Odria’s rule was pro-American and conservative. But to Presidents Bustamante and Belaunde soldiers were soldiers, tearing at the vulnerable fabric of democracy.

Today Peruvians, with an almost uncanny communal sense of history, are slipping into the sort of mood that can precipitate coups. They are disgusted with the economics of President Alan Garcia and his Aprista party, who have plunged the country into the worst economic crisis in 50 years. With the average wage at half last year’s earning power, with inflation rampaging toward 2,000% and with strikes in several key sectors, those who aren’t mumbling about coups in private are publicly calling for Garcia’s resignation--the sooner the better.

In September the government decreed draconian economic measures to deal with the raging inflation and near-panic among the public. The program, variously called Plan Cero (for zero inflation) or--in slang--the paquetazo (big package), backfired. Food, drug and transportation subsidies were stripped away, and prices on those vital necessities soared, some as high as 400%. Salaries and wages were allowed to increase from 50% to 150%, leaving a huge gap for the mass of Peruvians. Suppliers hoarded, consumption decreased precipitously and producers cut back, leading to true shortages in rice, flour, chickens and beans. Presumably the army still has plenty of bullets.

Last week the government announced a new paquetazo , devaluing the inti by half (against the U.S. dollar) and raising the prices of food (40% to 270%) and gasoline (125%). Reportedly Garcia’s economics minister, Abel Salinas, argued for even tougher measures; after announcing the new program on behalf of the government, Salinas resigned. Salinas’ departure was recognition that the government has failed to come to terms with the economic crisis. With a new economics minister, Garcia has the opportunity to take a new approach; it will have to be severe.

Strikes in the public sector--especially the miners’ strike, now in its seventh week--have become crippling. The mines are the country’s leading export earners; if Peru is ever to pass the litmus test of solvency, that industry cannot languish for long.

Peru has become a pariah among the international lending agencies--especially the International Monetary Fund, with which Garcia has refused to cooperate. This, too, annoys Peruvians, who do not like to think of themselves in the same class as other renegades in the complex world of international finance.

Peruvians are in the main angry and sullen, outraged at having to form lines for everything and at the Aprista government’s inability to dig them out of the mess.

Garcia, famous for his balconazos-- nationalistic harangues launched from the balcony of the presidential palace--hasn’t made a balconazo in months. Yet he remains feisty and combative, although his political pronouncements and actions are sometimes wildly contradictory as he attempts to deal with the spreading crises.

The eminent national leaders in opposition, like ex-President Belaunde and Peru’s distinguished novelist-turned-politician Mario Vargas Llosa, are all appearing on national television to denounce the talk of coups, calling for patience and loyalty to the democratic way.

More than anything else, Peruvians want some order and stability. If the left were to come to power in the elections of 1990, many fear an Allende-style slide into social and economic dissolution such as characterized Chile between 1970 and 1973. In the wake of Salvador Allende came the conservative dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. But many Peruvians also envy the order and economic success of Pinochet’s Chile.

A few weeks ago Prime Minister Armando Villanueva said that “blood would run in the streets if the right ever tried to regain power.” That remark, by one of the leaders of a party that came to power via the vote in 1985, struck many as intemperate and inflammatory.

Meanwhile, the lieutenant colonels, colonels and young generals must wonder if their hour of destiny is once more at hand.

Democracy is a fragile institution at best in Latin America. One of the major early challenges for the new Administration in Washington will be to forge a Latin American policy that will support both democracy and economic progress. Peru’s immediate well-being depends on how Garcia and democracy rise to the current challenge. If he doesn’t show a strong hand at the helm, democracy might take a serious tumble in a Peru clamoring for leadership, for direction, for stability.