U.S., Soviets Push for Angola Coalition : Rebels, Marxist Regime Expected to Begin Talks on Ending War

After decades of often bitter superpower confrontation in Africa, the United States and the Soviet Union have agreed on a joint effort to end the 13-year-old Angolan civil war by pushing U.S.-backed rebels and the Soviet-backed government toward an uneasy coalition.

A senior Reagan Administration official said that peace talks between the insurgents of Jonas Savimbi’s National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) and the Marxist government of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos are expected to begin soon, probably early next year.

Officially, the leaders of Angola’s neighboring nations will sponsor the Savimbi-Dos Santos talks. But Washington and Moscow have pledged their full support, thus greatly increasing the pressure on UNITA and the Luanda government to resolve their differences.

‘Face is Saved’

“The skids are greased for early national reconciliation talks,” the U.S. official said. “Because the African nations are supporting the talks, everybody’s face is saved and no one is expected to show weakness by taking the first step.”

Nevertheless, the talks are expected to be difficult because UNITA and the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA, as the governing party is known, have been bitter enemies since Portuguese colonial rule ended in 1975.

“Neither we nor the Soviets are in a position to tell UNITA and the MPLA what the solution should be,” the senior official said. “No one should underestimate their independence or cantankerousness.”

In addition to the support he receives from the United States, Savimbi gets aid from South Africa, although he insists that he is totally opposed to apartheid, Pretoria’s policy of racial separation. For its part, the Angolan government depends on the military support of 50,000 Cuban troops as well as on political backing from Moscow.

The Angolan reconciliation talks are expected to begin shortly after the Angolan government, Cuba and South Africa complete work on a complex, U.S.-mediated agreement calling for South Africa to grant independence to Namibia and for Cuba to withdraw its troops from Angola. All three governments accepted the broad outlines of the agreement last month, but the task of tying down all the details has proved difficult.

A meeting last weekend in Brazzaville, Congo, which had been expected to wrap up the deal, broke up without an agreement. State Department officials said Monday that they are confident, however, that the setback is a temporary one and that the pact will be completed soon.

Namibia (South-West Africa) is a sparsely populated territory on the southwestern coast of Africa that has been ruled by South Africa since 1920. Guerrillas of the South-West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) have been fighting for years to end South Africa’s control, using Angola to the north for their rear bases.

U.N. Backs Truce

The United Nations has called for a truce and supervised elections leading to independence, and South Africa has agreed to independence within the framework of an overall settlement in southern Africa, including withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola.

Although the Angolan civil war was not officially on the table in the Brazzaville talks, an Angolan-Cuban-South African agreement could have a profound effect on the conflict between UNITA and the MPLA. Independence for Namibia would deny UNITA the use of Namibian territory for its strategic rear area and probably would cut Savimbi’s forces off from South African support. And the withdrawal of Cuban troops would remove a vital prop from the Angolan army.

Reagan Administration officials say that the impact of a Namibian settlement on the Angolan civil war would be either neutral or weighted slightly toward UNITA because they believe that Cuban backing is more important to the government than South African support is to UNITA. However, Savimbi’s supporters on Capitol Hill are uneasy about the projected Namibian pact.

A special Senate task force on Angola, headed by Sen. Dennis DeConcini (D-Ariz.), has warned that a Namibian pact will not, by itself, foster national reconciliation. Constantine C. Menges, a former member of the National Security Council, has branded the emerging Namibia agreement as a “sellout” of Savimbi and UNITA. Menges’ view is shared by many conservatives.

The senior Administration official insisted that the deal is as favorable to Savimbi as could be realistically expected.

“Of course, there are a lot of comfortable Cold Warriors sitting in their armchairs who will ask why you didn’t get 150%,” he said.

The proposed Namibian pact does not restrict future U.S. aid to UNITA, and the U.S. government is committed to continue the backing until there is a political settlement. Both UNITA and the regime have said they favor a coalition, although animosity between the two sides will make the negotiations difficult.

The U.S. official said the two sides really are not very far apart on matters of policy. For instance, the regime has backed away from its once-doctrinaire Marxist economics and now favors a mixed economy of public and private enterprise. For his part, Savimbi professes to support democratic socialism, an apparently similar philosophy.

But on matters ranging from personality and tone to the typically African issue of tribe, the gulf between the parties is a wide one.

Largest Tribe

Savimbi’s stronghold is in the Ovimbundu tribe, Angola’s largest. He also enjoys the support of several smaller tribes. By contrast, the ruling party is an urban elite drawing its strength from Africans without strong tribal attraction and from people of mixed race.

The regime’s Marxist ideology is not compatible with the sort of two-party system that a compromise would require. Also, the UNITA forces, like many guerrilla armies, are austere and disciplined, while many government officials have come to enjoy the comforts of the city.

“There is a fear of honest government in Luanda,” the senior Administration official said. “They seem to be thinking, ‘What happens to my shopping trips to Paris if the puritanical guys come in from the bush?’ ”

But the most difficult problem of all may be finding a place for Savimbi in a coalition government. The charismatic rebel leader has established a reputation as a brilliant politician, balancing an eclectic group of patrons including the late Mao Tse-tung, North Korean leader Kim Il Sung, former President Gerald R. Ford, President Reagan, Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) and President Pieter W. Botha of South Africa.

In public, Dos Santos has said his government is willing to accept UNITA members but will never reconcile with Savimbi personally. However, the senior U.S. official said that Dos Santos has indicated in private that “he is ready to bite that bullet.”

Savimbi has said he is willing to accept Dos Santos as the nation’s president, provided that UNITA is given a share of power.