Lebanon’s Christian-Led Regime Has Back to Wall

Lebanon’s civil strife, entering its 15th year next week, has evolved from a standoff between rival Christian and Muslim militias to a struggle for survival by the Christian-led government against not only Lebanese Muslims but also Syria.

The latest phase of the war has already killed at least 177 and injured almost 600 since early March, according to Lebanese police.

When the war erupted on April 13, 1975, the main issue was the uneven division of power among the country’s 17 recognized religious sects. Now, it has become a regional conflict that pits the Lebanese army against Syria and, potentially, also the occupying armies of Israel, Iran and the Palestine Liberation Organization.

“This stage of the fighting is different from the past 14 years,” said Maj. Gen. Michel Aoun, interviewed in Beirut by telephone. “For the first time, we are saying that we want the liberation of the country from all foreign forces. We want no one left so we can reconcile the country and rebuild Lebanon--ourselves.”

Aoun, the Christian commander of the Lebanese army, has also been Lebanon’s acting chief of state since the Parliament was unable to elect a new president last September. He has used Lebanon’s military to enforce his agenda.

Muslim factions, which refused to accept Aoun’s appointment by outgoing President Amin Gemayel, formed their own government under Premier Salim Hoss.

The latest crisis began in early March when Aoun moved to exert government authority over both Christian and Muslim militias. His first step was to close the various militia-run illegal ports that have diverted at least $100 million of vital state revenues to the sectarian factions.

His goal, as he told his nation in a televised address Thursday, is to regain state sovereignty and to “meet around a Lebanese negotiating table for a free and true national dialogue.”

Aoun specifically mentioned long-sought reforms that would give Muslims a greater share of power in the Christian-dominated government.

The general launched the campaign to regain state control March 8 with a crackdown on ports run by Christian militias. He followed up on March 14 with a blockade around Muslim-run ports.

But those actions led Syria and its Druze and Muslim allies to respond militarily, opening fire on the Aoun government in Christian-dominated East Beirut and laying siege around the 310-square-mile Christian enclave stretching from Batroun in the mountainous north to the capital.

Since then, Beirut has witnessed some of the most savage fighting of the entire war.

Christians Taking the Brunt

Unlike previous stages of the conflict, the Christians are now feeling the brunt of the artillery barrages. They are also facing the shortages--of fuel, water and electricity--that Muslim sectors have suffered in the past.

“They are destroying the infrastructure of the country, everything but the military positions,” Aoun charged of the Syrians.

The U.S. ambassador’s residence has been hit once, causing a brief fire, and shells landing nearby have caused further damage. The French consul-general’s home came under a four-hour bombardment this week after a French envoy arrived to try to mediate. The envoy said he interpreted the strike as an “unambiguous” welcome from Syria.

“Aoun is portraying it as a ‘last stand,’ the Lebanese equivalent of ‘Give us liberty or give us death,’ ” said a Bush Administration official. “He truly sees himself as the liberator of Lebanon.”

But in one of the odd twists to the war’s new stage, many Muslim civilians, exhausted by a generation of warfare and angered by the domineering Syrian presence since 1976, are reportedly quietly backing Aoun. U.S. analysts say that Aoun has won more Muslim backing for the Christian-led government than at any point since the civil war began.

Total support for the Syrians has been limited to the Druze militia, a pro-Syrian party and radical Palestinian factions. Other Muslim factions--including the two largest Shiite militias, Amal and Hezbollah (Party of God)--have verbally supported Syria but have not become major players in the clashes, according to Lebanese and U.S. officials.

For the Syrian regime of President Hafez Assad, the stakes are also high, according to American analysts.

Damascus has always had a proprietary interest in Lebanon, which was carved out of Syria by the French to provide protection for the last Christian stronghold in the Middle East. Syria has always felt that Lebanon’s identity should be with the Arab world, while Christians viewed the Mediterranean state as the eastern outpost of the Western world.

The Syrians have long feared that Lebanon would become too oriented to the West. Their short-term concern is that Muslims gain a greater share of power in the Arab world’s only democracy. They became directly involved in 1976, when they sent in troops ostensibly to help guarantee peace between Christian and Muslim factions that had been fighting since the summer of 1974.

According to Augustus Richard Norton, professor of politics at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, the current situation in Lebanon is ultimately driven by Syria’s feeling of being “incredibly boxed in” because of several political and military setbacks,

PLO chief Yasser Arafat, Assad’s rival for control of the Arab position in the Arab-Israeli dispute, opened a dialogue with the United States last December. He also made peace with Aoun in January after almost seven years of tension between the PLO and the Lebanese government. Politically, Syria appears increasingly isolated on both fronts.

Iran, Syria’s ally in their joint rivalry with Iraq, abruptly ended the Persian Gulf War last summer. Baghdad then moved in to supply Lebanon’s Christian militias with arms, which again challenged Syrian hegemony in Lebanon. Militarily, Damascus is now more vulnerable on two of its borders.

Syria, however, has the military edge in Lebanon. It has up to 40,000 troops spread throughout two-thirds of the country.

Can Aoun Hold Out?

And Aoun’s ability to hold out through a prolonged siege is doubtful, U.S. officials say. In the interview, Aoun claimed to have 15,000 army troops under his command, although Bush Administration sources put the figure at only about 8,000.

A precarious cease-fire mediated by the Arab League appeared to take hold Friday. But few in Lebanon or the United States expect it to last, since Aoun refuses to end his blockade of the Muslim ports, and Syria has balked at lifting the siege.

Lebanese on both sides of the Green Line that divides the capital reportedly spent the day buying and filling new sandbags to fortify their homes and offices.

The siege of the Christian enclave has created a furor in France, from which Lebanon gained independence in 1943. Paris has dispatched two vessels carrying fuel and basic foods to Beirut. France is also expected to introduce a resolution at the United Nations calling for an end to the siege.

To show solidarity with the Christians, dozens of French nationals have applied for honorary Lebanese citizenship at the Lebanese Embassy in Paris.

THE CONTINUING CRISIS IN LEBANON

Key dates in Lebanon’s 14 years of civil war:

April, 1975: Civil war begins.

September, 1976: First phase of war ends when Arab League peacekeeping force, including Syrian troops, arrives.

March, 1978: Israel invades southern Lebanon.

Summer, 1978: 100-day war between Christians and Arab League troops forces Syria to withdraw from Christian regions and East Beirut.

December, 1980, to June, 1981: Syrian and Christian troops battle over control of the Christian enclave of Zahlah, ending in an agreement that Christian troops withdraw and Syria end its siege.

June to September, 1982: Israel again invades Lebanon, advancing as far north as Beirut.

June, 1985: Israel withdraws troops from most of Lebanon.

September, 1988: Lebanon’s Parliament fails to elect a new president to succeed Amin Gemayel.

March 14, 1989: Lebanese army battles combined Syrian and local Muslim militia forces.

1--Christian enclave

2--Muslim and Syrian controlled area

3--Israel security zone