Telecommunications Gear Is the Exception : High Tech Growth to Slow, Trade Group Says
Between now and 1993 there is likely to be a slowdown in worldwide growth rates for computers and other information technology except telecommunications equipment, according to a U.S. trade association.
The Computer and Business Equipment Manufacturers Assn. said global revenues of the information technology industry in 1988 totaled $604.7 billion, up 11.2% from the previous year.
The figure includes computers and other electronic data processing equipment, $304 billion; office equipment, $62.1 billion; telecommunications equipment, $112.2 billion; as well as software and services, $126.4 billion.
In a global market analysis issued last week, CBEMA said information industry revenues grew at an average annual rate of 10.8% over the period 1980-88. But that growth rate, it said, is projected to decrease to 8.7% a year for the period from 1988 through 1993.
Looking ahead for the next four years, “there is a slowdown in all equipment markets except telecommunications,” said Helga Sayadian, director of industry marketing statistics for the Washington-based association.
Sayadian said this trend “reflects economic conditions worldwide and the slight recession that is forecast near the beginning of next year.”
For electronic data processing equipment, the worldwide annual growth rate averaged 12.3% in 1980-88 and is projected to drop to 8.9% in 1988-93.
Average annual growth for office equipment was 9.3% in 1980-88 and is forecast to decline to 7.7% in 1988-93, while yearly growth of software and services averaged 19% in 1980-88 and is projected to drop to 11.9% in 1988-93.
By contrast, CBEMA said, annual growth for telecommunications equipment is forecast to increase slightly to 5.3% in 1988-93 from 4.5% in 1980-88.
For 1988, consumption of information technology in North America totaled $299.4 billion; Europe, $212.4 billion; Asia, $76.7 billion; South America, $8.8 billion, and the rest of the world, $7.4 billion.
Projections for 1993 are North America, $448.6 billion; Europe, $303.3 billion; Asia, $141.1 billion; South America, $16.2 billion, and the rest of the world, $12.1 billion, for a global total of $921.1 billion.
In terms of market share, the share of global information technology accounted for by electronic data processing equipment was 50.3% in 1988 and is forecast to edge up slightly to 50.5% by 1993. Software and services is projected to rise to 24.1% in 1993 from 20.8% in 1988.
However, the global market share for telecommunications equipment is expected to drop to 15.7% in 1993 from 18.6% in 1988, while office equipment is projected to decline to 9.7% in 1993 from 10.3% in 1988.
The CBEMA study was prepared by the Center for Economic Analysis Inc., a Stamford, Conn.-based consulting firm, in cooperation with the association’s Industry Marketing Statistics Committee.
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