The Times Poll : North Trial Deepens U.S. Suspicion on Bush Role

The trial of former National Security Council aide Oliver L. North has deepened public suspicion about President Bush’s involvement in the Iran-Contra scandal.

A third of the respondents to a Los Angeles Times Poll say that North’s trial has made them think Bush was more involved--while fewer than a fifth said it made them think he was less involved.

The poll also shows that about one-half of the American people continue to think Bush has lied about the Iran-Contra affair and that two-thirds think North is protecting both Bush and former President Ronald Reagan.

By a margin of 47% to 32%, Americans think North is guilty as charged of lying to Congress, destroying government documents and misappropriating government money to his own use. People are about evenly split on whether he should go to jail if he is convicted--or get a suspended sentence or be pardoned. About 71% of the public does not consider North a hero.

The Times interviewed 1,715 Americans on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The number of respondents is large enough to make the poll accurate to within a range of 3 percentage points in either direction.

The poll links revelations at North’s trial with public suspicion concerning Bush’s involvement in the Iran-Contra affair, in which money from the illegal sale of arms to Iran was diverted to rebels in Nicaragua.

Respondents were asked: “As a result of disclosures at the Oliver North trial, do you think George Bush was more involved in Iran-Contra than you thought?”

About 35% said they now think he was more involved, while only 16% said they now think he was less involved. Thirty-four percent said they had not changed their mind, and 15% either were not sure or declined to answer.

Fifty-one percent said they think Bush has lied about the Iran-Contra affair. The percentage is statistically unchanged from the 49% who told Times poll-takers last September that they thought Bush had lied.

A substantial majority of the public believes that North was only following orders and is now taking the blame for Iran-Contra to protect Reagan and Bush.

Those who agreed totaled 67%. Only 18% disagreed.

Favorable Impression

Because of this belief, said I. A. Lewis, director of the Times poll, many Americans continue to have a favorable impression of North.

Lewis said 53% of the poll respondents viewed North favorably.

“It is not that they necessarily think he did not do it,” Lewis said. “It is that they feel that he is the sacrificial lamb for higher-ups.”

Lewis noted, however, that North’s favorableness rating was down from 67% in July, 1987, the month of congressional hearings into the Iran-Contra affair.

North’s trial ended last week. He is awaiting a verdict from a U.S. District Court jury in Washington. If he is convicted, 33% of the public think he should go to jail.

Twenty-seven percent think he should get a suspended sentence, and 29% think that Bush should pardon him.

Republicans seem split about Bush’s involvement in Iran-Contra, which he has denied. Nearly a quarter--24%--of those who identified themselves as Republican said the trial made them think Bush was more involved, compared to 21% who now think he was less involved.

Republicans are also split on the question of whether Bush has lied about his involvement in the affair.

Thirty-nine percent said he has not; 34% said he has--but the 5-percentage-point difference is less than the margin needed for statistical significance.

Similarly, North has been unable to convince a statistically significant majority of Republicans that he is innocent. Forty percent believe he is innocent and 38% say he is guilty.

Indeed, 57% of the Republicans said North is a willing scapegoat.

An equal percentage of men and women think Bush has lied about Iran-Contra.

Middle Group at 58%

But blacks at 71% far outweigh whites at 48% on that question. Those who consider themselves neither conservative nor liberal, but middle of the road, view Bush as a liar on the matter by a 58% majority.

Generally, public attention to the Iran-Contra scandal is waning.

In July, 1987, 77% of the respondents to a Times poll said they were interested in the issue, and 18% said they were not.

In the current poll, 47% said they were troubled at least somewhat by the affair.

More--51%--said they were not troubled much.

IMPACT OF THE NORTH TRIAL Many people now think Bush was more involved in the Iran-Contra affair....

Q. As a result of disclosures at the Oliver North trial, do you think George Bush was more involved in Iran-Contra than you thought, or about as much, or less involved?

More involved: 35%As much: 34%Less: 16%No opinion: 15%....and fewer people have a favorable impression of North, compared to a similar poll in July, 1987.

Q. What is your impression of Oliver North?

April, 1989

Favorable: 53%Unfavorable: 34%No opinion: 13% July, 1987

Favorable: 67%Unfavorable: 19%No opinion: 14%SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll