A Welcome Reversal of Policy

The Bush Administration, in a welcome reversal of policy, now signals that it is ready to take seriously the profound biological and economic implications of global warming. It is preparing to host an international “workshop” on the problem in October as a first step toward achieving a treaty that would try to control activities that contribute to the so-called greenhouse effect. This is a far cry from the go-slow approach urged until just a few days ago by White House Chief of State John Sununu, despite appeals from both the Environmental Protection Agency and the State Department that the United States take the international lead in addressing this compelling issue.

The chemistry as well as the politics of global warming are complex, but the danger that is presented can be simply stated. Increasing amounts of carbon are being concentrated in Earth’s atmosphere, much of it in the form of the carbon dioxide that is given off when fossil fuels, primarily coal, are burned. These gases prevent the sun’s radiation from returning harmlessly to space. Instead, heat is trapped, threatening--and here there is still no scientific consensus about the degree or imminence of risk--to raise the level of the oceans, flooding heavily populated coastal areas; alter the direction of ocean currents; produce severe storms, and devastate some major agricultural regions.

To define the problem, though, is not to resolve it. The concentration of carbon in the atmosphere is also a product of the deforestation that is occurring on a mass scale in much of the third world. A nation like Brazil might argue, however, that the destruction of its trees is a concomitant of development and not the affair of other countries. The same argument is often heard when proposals are made to control the burning of coal, which in a global context is an abundant and relatively cheap form of energy.

The drafters of an international treaty to mitigate the effects of global warming clearly have their work cut out for them. They must also be aware that they are working against an ominously ticking clock. Some scientists project that within as few as 20 years the Earth’s average surface temperature could rise 2 degrees Fahrenheit; within 60 years it could go up as much as 4 degrees. The won’t, as the old cliche has it, spell the end of civilization as we know it, but it surely will require an enormous degree of adaptation, and the time to begin planning for that is now.