Quayle Fears U.S. ‘Inaction’ Over Soviet Military Moves

Vice President Dan Quayle expressed concern Friday that the United States might react with “paralysis and inaction” if the Soviet Union were to use military force against rebellious satellites in Eastern Europe and said that the Administration should begin planning how it would respond.

Citing Moscow’s use of troops to crush a popular uprising in Hungary in 1956 and the Kremlin’s suppression of the reform movement in Czechoslovakia in 1968, Quayle said that the possibility of Soviet military intervention is the “big risk” in the present situation. So far, Bush Administration officials have not discussed how the United States would respond, he said, “and we ought to.”

Quayle’s views, far from being expressions of his personal thoughts, reflect the thinking of at least some of the most seasoned Kremlin-watchers in the Administration.

One senior Administration official, commenting on condition that he not be identified, said contingency planning for a U.S. response “probably is the next step, but right now there are no signs or developments that would make a military intervention (by Moscow) appear to be a near-term likelihood.”

The senior official said that the United States has not discussed specific contingency plans for responding to any Soviet military intervention in Eastern Europe, but that--as part of the Administration’s continuing foreign policy review--officials have discussed what the proper balance should be in encouraging change in Eastern Europe without provoking a military confrontation.

The vice president’s remarks could stir concern among North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies already unhappy with what they see as the Bush Administration’s overly skeptical attitude toward the changes in policy by Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev.

Quayle did not suggest that the United States should respond to a Soviet move against unruly satellites with military force. Rather, he seemed to be suggesting an assertive response similar to the Ronald Reagan Administration’s reaction to the Soviet-backed declaration of martial law in Poland in 1981.

At that time, Reagan imposed major political and economic sanctions against the Warsaw regime and further chilled his then already strained relations with the Kremlin.

Quayle, interviewed at a breakfast session with reporters, said that efforts to liberalize the Communist regimes in East Europe are “certainly moving a great deal” and “it is clearly in our interest to try to see if Eastern Europe will be able to move out of the total control and domination by the Soviet Union.”

The vice president wondered whether the U.S. response would be “paralysis and inaction,” which he suggested was the case in 1956 in Hungary, in 1968 in Czechoslovakia and the United States, and its allies did not intervene.

He said that the NATO summit in Brussels May 29-30 can be expected to focus on new opportunities and problems that may arise for the West as the struggle for greater autonomy intensifies in some East Bloc countries.

U. S. intelligence officials also have expressed concern that the movement eventually could result in Soviet military intervention. But Quayle’s comments mark the first time an Adminstration official has publicly raised the possibility.

A senior intelligence official, commenting on the vice president’s statement, said: “He’s right that we’ve got to watch developments carefully, but any discussion of possible U.S. reaction to any Soviet military move won’t be discussed in a public forum. I am glad, though, some of the people are beginning to think in ‘Chapter Two’ terms, which we sometimes tend not to do.”

The official suggested that the Bush Administration might explore whether Gorbachev, in pursuing his own agenda, could be persuaded to “renounce--or disassociate himself from--the Brezhnev Doctrine,” which asserts a Soviet right “to protect Communist regimes even if it means the use of force.”

Soviet leader Leonid I. Brezhnev expounded the doctrine on Nov. 12, 1968, after a large Soviet force and token East German, Hungarian, Polish and Bulgarian forces, totaling 650,000 troops, crushed the so-called “Prague Spring” reform movement in Czechoslovakia.

The United States already has begun feeling out the Soviets to determine whether Gorbachev is prepared to back away from the Brezhnev Doctrine, according to another senior intelligence official, who added that “the only real test would be if we have a blow-up in East Europe.”

Quayle pointed out that President Bush, in supporting liberalizing forces in Eastern Europe, is using Poland as a model. Last month Bush, declaring that “Eastern Europe is awakening to the yearnings for democracy, independence and prosperity,” announced a program to provide Poland with a modest package of trade and economic benefits.