CHINA IN TURMOIL : They Think Leadership Has Collapsed : Rival Armies May Clash in Beijing Soon, Diplomats Say

Western diplomats said Monday that they believe China’s political leadership has now completely collapsed and that Beijing could soon be the scene of a battle between rival armies.

According to one diplomatic source, some troops from China’s People’s Liberation Army are moving from the south towards Beijing, where they apparently intend to confront the PLA’s 27th Army.

It was the 27th Army that was primarily responsible for the bloody assault on Beijing on Saturday night and early Sunday, and which now apparently controls most of this terrified city.

“It looks like a potential clash within the military,” said one Western diplomat.

There were reports Monday of skirmishing between rival military units both south and northwest of Beijing, but these could not be confirmed.

“Things are now completely out of control,” said another Western diplomat. “It is now really an inter-army problem.”

Even if no new troops arrive here, there are already 150,000 to 300,000 troops from other parts of China massed in the Beijing area. In downtown Beijing, tanks patrol, trucks burn and troops continue to fire volleys of gunfire alongside once-genteel diplomatic compounds, tourist hotels and Beijing’s Friendship Store.

Rumors swept Beijing on Monday that China’s paramount political and military leader, 84-year-old Deng Xiaoping, is dead or incapacitated. Deng has not been seen since the end of his summit meeting with Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev 20 days ago.

There have been rumors of Deng’s death in the past whenever he has dropped out of sight. But this time, they are given some credence here because of his failure to appear in public at any time during China’s weeks-long political and military crisis.

Since the carnage in Beijing last weekend, other Chinese political leaders have also disappeared from sight. Neither Premier Li Peng nor President Yang Shangkun, the two leaders responsible for putting Beijing under martial law and calling troops to the city, has appeared on television or issued any statement about the massacre.

“It appears that the government has abdicated,” said a senior Western diplomat. “There is no one at the top.”

The PLA’s 27th Army is allied with Yang, for years a senior military figure. Its commander is Yang’s own nephew, Yang Jianhua, according to a Western diplomat.

Yang Shangkun serves as the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the group that runs the PLA and is chaired by Deng. His younger brother, Yang Baibing, is the PLA’s top political commissar, and the PLA’s chief of general staff, Chi Haotian, is reportedly Yang’s son-in-law.

It is not known for sure, however, whether Yang and his family are firmly in control of the 27th Army, or if so, whether they actually ordered this army to fire indiscriminately on unarmed civilians as it has done since Saturday night.

Several diplomats said Monday they are still uncertain which if any of the senior officials within the Chinese military are challenging the power of Yang and his family.

“There are a number of people involved, with shifting loyalties,” said one source. “It’s hard to tell who’s on whose side any more.”

One other Chinese unit, the PLA’s 54th Army from southern Hebei province, is said to have joined with the 27th Army in its deadly weekend invasion.

By contrast, the 38th Army, which is based near Beijing, earlier had apparently refused to go along with the orders of Yang and Li to move into the city and, if necessary, use force against its populace. There are now reports that the 38th Army is seeking to wrest control of downtown Beijing from the 27th Army.

The 27th Army currently occupies Tian An Men Square in the center of Beijing, the area which, until recently, was occupied by youthful student demonstrators for democracy.

One Western European diplomat here said he was particularly concerned about the potential for civil war because the leaders of the 27th Army have no reason or incentive to negotiate some political settlement to the military crisis.

“The army on the square has nothing to lose by fighting, because they know that after what happened here last weekend, if they surrender they will be executed for their crimes,” he explained.

One Asian diplomat said he thought the 27th Army’s savage shootings of the past three days could be explained only as an attempt to terrorize all of Beijing into submission. But he said he doubted whether the effort will succeed.

“They think they can terrorize the entire country?” the Asian diplomat asked. “One billion people? You can’t try to explain that in rational terms.”