CHINA IN TURMOIL : Chinese Leaders Reportedly Fled to Military Base

On Monday morning, a convoy of 40 limousines and minibuses, guarded by six tanks and several more armored personnel carriers, rolled out of the Chinese leadership compound at Zhongnanhai in central Beijing and headed west.

Some sketchy details about this convoy were provided in a Communist Party-affiliated newspaper here, and brief footage of the convoy appeared on Chinese television.

Western analysts here now believe that convoy contained virtually the entire top political leadership of China, vacating the complex adjacent to the Forbidden City from which the Communist Party has ruled the nation for nearly 40 years.

“We think they went to a military compound in the Western Hills outside Beijing,” said one source here.

Zhao’s ‘Limousine Arrest’

Included in the entourage, this source said, were ousted Communist Party General Secretary Zhao Ziyang and Hu Qili, a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo--both men brought along under guard in what might be called “limousine arrest,” a traveling version of house arrest. The two are believed to have lost their posts because they opposed the imposition of martial law last month.

Chinese President Yang Shangkun and other hard-line leaders took Zhao and Hu along “in order to keep an eye on them,” said one analyst.

None of these leaders has been seen in public for as long as two weeks and it is unknown which of them is ascendant at the moment. In Washington, President Bush’s spokesman said Wednesday that the Administration remains confused about “the structure of the government . . . or who is making decisions.”

“We don’t know where they are. We simply surmise that based on historical patterns that there have been some of the leaders which have gone to other locations within the city or to the outskirts of the city,” press secretary Marlin Fitzwater said. He said U.S. officials have been unable to make contact with any “any of the top leaders.”

Thus there is considerable speculation now about what is going on inside that compound in the Western Hills.

(Western analysts insist they do not know exactly where this military command post is located.)

Who Is Boss Now?

Who is the most influential official in the compound? Is Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, unseen since May 16, there? And what persons or units are providing security for the leaders during this political crisis?

The question of security--that is, of who provides protection for the leaders--has proved important in recent Chinese history.

After the death of Mao Tse-tung, a special palace guard unit called the “8341” unit helped arrange the arrest of Mao’s wife, Jiang Qing, and other radical leaders allied with her.

Earlier this week, there were reports that Premier Li Peng had been shot and wounded in the thigh by one of his guards. Western diplomats here have not confirmed that the incident took place. But the report serves as a reminder that the outcome of the current power struggle could well hinge on who has the best and the most loyal security protection.

Current Palace Guard

The current version of the old 8341 unit, the palace guard for China’s leadership, is called the Central Guard Unit. It is run by the General Office of the Communist Party Central Committee.

From 1984 until recently, this unit was run by an official named Wen Jiabao, a protege of Zhao. Like his mentor, Wen is now believed to be under some form of house arrest.

This guard unit is also supervised by an older, semi-retired military figure named Yang Dezhong, who was for years the personal bodyguard to Chinese Premier Chou En-lai.

“If Deng Xiaoping is alive and in that complex, he’d go with the old and reliable Yang Dezhong for his security,” said a Western analyst.

No one in the West knows for certain if Deng is alive--and if he is, no one is too sure whether he is serving as commander, captive or medical patient inside the Western Hills compound. For a decade, Deng has been called China’s “paramount leader,” and the common assumption has been that as long as he is healthy, he will be the dominant figure in Chinese political life.

But that assumption is now being called into question. Another Western analyst interviewed here said he believes that within the command post in the Western Hills, President Yang is now a more powerful figure than Deng.

“Yang has more direct control over the military than Deng Xiao-ping does,” he said. “Over the past two years, Deng has had to drop his own two proteges (Communist Party General Secretaries Hu Yaobang and Zhao). That’s a sign of weakness. In a power struggle, Yang’s got more influence in the inner circle than Deng.”

However, another government analyst here disputed that theory. He said he believes Deng is healthy and gave the military orders that led to the massacre last weekend in Beijing--but that Deng has stayed out of sight so that he can avoid being blamed for what happened.

Western analysts here are also trying to figure out whether there is some centralized command post for the military units that have been seeking to take control of Beijing away from those units that invaded the city last weekend.

One possibility is that each of these units is operating independently--each unit motivated by revulsion over the massacre and over the harm it has done to the image of the People’s Liberation Army.

The other possibility is that there is a broader factional struggle within the Chinese military, and that those units seeking to recapture Beijing are working closely together.