Cambodia Crisis Seen as Viet Troops Go

After more than a decade of demanding an end to the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia, leaders of the United States and the non-Communist nations of Southeast Asia expressed alarm Thursday that Cambodia may be plunged back into civil war if Hanoi keeps its promise to withdraw by Sept. 30.

Addressing the start of the annual dialogue among foreign ministers of the six-member Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations and their major trading partners, Secretary of State James A. Baker III said that unless hostile Cambodian factions settle their differences soon, “the danger of a new cycle of civil war is quite real.”

In the closed-door discussion that followed public opening statements, the ASEAN members exhibited a “nervousness” about the future of Cambodia once the Vietnamese troops go home, according to senior U.S. officials who attended the session. They expressed fear that an international peace conference, scheduled to begin in Paris in August, will fail to smooth over decades of animosity among competing Cambodian groups.

“They drew some limited analogies with Afghanistan” where the withdrawal of Soviet forces earlier this year has been followed by bitter fighting, one official said in outlining the views expressed by the foreign ministers of the six-nation organization--Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

“The target was easier when it was simply a case of having the Vietnamese be out,” the official said. “Once the Vietnamese leave, the target becomes a lot more complicated.”

The official said the international consensus which has formed to insist on Vietnamese withdrawal might splinter in the face of the more complex issues of sharing power, verifying the Vietnamese pullout and other concerns.

Power Sharing Difficult

“Everyone is starting to see that internal power sharing and building a role for (Prince Norodom) Sihanouk is a very tough game,” another official said. “I think they are beginning to see that (the peace conference) very well could be a failure.”

As a preliminary to the August international conference, Sihanouk, the former Cambodian ruler who enjoys the backing of the United States, ASEAN, China, the Soviet Union and most other nations as the only leader capable of heading an interim coalition government, is scheduled to confer in Paris on July 24 with Hun Sen, premier of the Vietnamese-backed government now in power.

If those talks go well, the two men will be joined by former Prime Minister Son Sann, leader of a non-Communist faction allied with Sihanouk, and leaders of the Khmer Rouge, the murderous Communist faction that is blamed for the deaths of more than a million Cambodians by starvation, disease and killings when it ruled the country before the Vietnamese invasion in late 1978.

The Khmer Rouge guerrillas and the Hun Sen government are the most heavily armed of the four factions. However, Sihanouk is expected to try to play off the two Communist factions--which detest each other--against each other.

In his opening statement, Baker called on the ASEAN nations to redouble their support for Sihanouk “as he seeks to advance the process of national reconciliation.”

Baker also confirmed that the United States and the Philippines will begin negotiations this fall on the future of U.S. military bases in the Philippines. The agreement, which permits the operation of the Subic Bay Naval Base and Clark Air base, expires in 1991.

“We hope and expect to find ways to sustain our military presence in the Philippines after 1991,” he said.

But Baker said the negotiations would be free of rancor and that Washington would continue its friendly relations with Manila even if the pact is terminated.

“Our friendship with the Philippines far transcends whatever happens with respect to Clark and Subic Bay,” Baker said.