U.S. Sees Policy Problems in Wake of Japan’s Election

As a result of Sunday’s election in Japan, Bush Administration officials said Monday they are concerned that Tokyo will be less willing to make concessions on key issues dividing the allies, particularly the most sensitive one, the U.S. trade deficit.

Officials in the White House and the State and Commerce departments predicted that the setback for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the resignation of Prime Minister Sosuke Uno will cause difficulties for American foreign and economic policies.

The defection of many voters to the rival Socialist Party stripped the Liberal Democratic Party of its majority in the upper house of Japan’s Parliament, handing the ruling party its first defeat in a national election since it was formed in 1955.

The effect, the U.S. officials said, will be a weaker Japanese government that will find it politically risky to enter into new agreements with the United States.

“This is not a welcome development,” observed one Bush Administration official, who asked not to be identified. “The problem is that it’s better to have a strong Japanese government that’s able to make concessions in one area or another.”

“Given the number of issues on the table (between Japan and the United States), I expect it will be that much more difficult to see progress made on major issues,” said J. Michael Farren, undersecretary of commerce for international trade.

Although unelected Japanese bureaucrats participate in the early stages of negotiations with the United States, Farren said, “ultimately, at the eleventh hour, the issues have to move on to the (Japanese) political leadership. And it will be hard for the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) to provide political leadership in this interim period. You will get to a certain stage, and then the next rung of the ladder won’t be there for you.”

The United States has been trying to enlist Japan’s help on a number of foreign-policy issues, such as a package of foreign aid for the Philippines and a unified international stance on limited economic sanctions against China.

Now, said one State Department official, “it’s going to be very difficult to get positive movement on anything at all that requires approval by the Diet (Parliament).”

Asked which American policies could be affected by the Japanese elections, another senior U.S. official replied: “The trade deficit. The big enchilada.”

The official said the most significant aspect of the election is that the Liberal Democratic Party lost 13 rural seats. “That’s pretty amazing stuff for a party founded on rural interests,” he said.

He said the results could be read, in part, as a reaction to U.S. pressure on Japan to open its markets to imported agricultural products such as beef, citrus fruits and rice.

Farren and other Commerce Department officials said the elections will also make it harder for the United States to pursue talks with Japan on the “structural impediments” that restrict access by American firms to the Japanese market.

Those talks, which are scheduled to start soon, are aimed at identifying general problems that cut across all industries and make it difficult for American exporters to do business in Japan, such as Japan’s unique distribution system.

“Given the political instability that exists now (in Japan), it would be very hard for them to make changes in areas like that,” another Commerce Department official said.

A Contrary View

However, one leading critic of American policy toward Japan, UC San Diego Prof. Chalmers Johnson, said he believes the Bush Administration should be welcoming the election results and the losses by the Liberal Democrats rather than worrying about them.

“Nothing was going to change on the trade deficit unless something happened politically in Japan,” Johnson said. “There will be considerable instability in Japan for a while, but it’s no more instability than we had during Watergate.

“This could help make Japanese agriculture something other than the sacred cow it is,” added Johnson, a longtime specialist on relations between the United States and Japan. “This election in Japan reflects democracy. We have been far too willing to tolerate an undemocratic world in Japan.”

White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said the Bush Administration has no official comment on the Japanese elections “simply because it’s an internal matter.”

Asked whether Japanese voters might have been angry over their country’s leadership making concessions to the United States, Fitzwater replied, “Well, we hope that’s not the case. We certainly will continue to press our interests with the Japanese government or any government.”

State Department spokeswoman Margaret Tutwiler said the United States “will continue to work closely with the government of Japan to resolve outstanding bilateral issues.”