Political Fuse Is Lit in Baja California

Winning the governorship of Baja California was no easy task for Ernesto Ruffo Appel. In fact, it has taken 60 years for the victory of an opposition party candidate to be recognized in any state in Mexico.

Yet, for Ruffo, the newest rising star of Mexican politics, the worst part of the challenge is yet to come. Once the dust from the July 2 elections has settled, he will have to face: an electorate that clamors for change; a vindictive union leadership whose political clout and prestige is diminished; the wrath of some deluded but influential leftist journalists from Mexico City who demand Ruffo’s unseating because he is a conservative; a state that is desperate for economic resources in a country whose coffers are seriously depleted, and the peculiar honor of being the lone opposition figure in a monolithic political system.

Nevertheless, Ruffo is not only confident; he is happy and eager to take office in December.

The first problem he’ll face will come from his own supporters. Those who voted for him under the PAN (National Action Party) banner did so because they wanted change. They want an honest administration, but they also want better schools, efficient public transportation, decent housing, running water, paved roads and the many needs of urban life that no PRI administration was able to provide in all those years of political monopoly and inefficiency.

At the same time, Ruffo will have to deal with the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and with the resentful leaders of the peasants, workers, teachers and other unions who lost what had been automatic positions of influence in the state legislature. In Mexico City, opposition to Ruffo has taken the form of bullying by journalists from the Stalinist left, irate pieces published in influential newspapers declaring that conservatives have no place in Mexican politics.

Perhaps Ruffo’s single biggest challenge is in finding a way to communicate effectively with the federal bureaucracy--and to survive its hostility--in order to obtain a fair share of the national budget for his state. The big question is how President Carlos Salinas de Gortari will treat him. Unfortunately for both men, their dealings will unavoidably be tainted by partisan politics. Yet there are several factors working in Ruffo’s favor.

Baja California is one of the richest states in Mexico. For the last seven years its economy has grown at an impressive rate of 6%. Elsewhere in the republic, economic growth has been zero or negative. This has been influenced by Baja’s proximity to the United States, the largest consumer market in the world, an avalanche of tourism, significant foreign investment in maquiladoras (assembly plants) and a prosperous private sector that invests capital in manufacturing and agriculture. Much of the growth is made possible by the large labor force that has emigrated from other Mexican states to Baja as a jumping off point for entry to the United States. Many stay after finding that jobs are plentiful in Baja; there is virtually no unemployment.

The maquiladoras are growing at an annual rate of 20%, and that success contributes to Baja’s biggest problem: an increasingly inefficient and insufficient infrastructure.

Urbanization creates a dependency of the state on the federal bureaucracy to finance public expenditures. As the population grows, the gaps in the infrastructure keep widening. To narrow them, Ruffo will need an extraordinary amount of money. Where will it come from? Why should the federal government, dominated by the PRI, make a special effort to help a governor from an opposition party?

Salinas’ dilemma is to find a way to aid Ruffo. Otherwise the opposition PAN’s victory will fade, and with it Mexico’s much heralded political modernization.

It seems only natural to assume that Ernesto Ruffo will not bet his future on developing good relations with Carlos Salinas and the Office of Budget and Planning in Mexico City. He will have to look for support from both the Mexican private sector and foreign investment, mainly from U.S. and Japanese firms that are already doing business in the peninsula.

The new rules governing foreign investment present a golden opportunity for him in fields such as tourism, roads and telecommunications. Ruffo should seize this opportunity. He should also research a system of financing public works through the sale of bonds, as it is done in the United States. This approach seems to be favored by influential Mexican investors.

Another possibility for the newly elected governor lies in binational initiatives that may benefit his state. One promising proposal has been put forth by California state Sen. Ken Maddy: a binational association for development of the border zone. The creation of a binational bank to finance economic activities along the border has also been discussed in public forums.

Ruffo should also encourage the integration of Baja in the Pacific Rim. In addition to increasing the level of foreign investment in maquiladora businesses, many of which are Asian, the development of port facilities at Ensenada as a less expensive alternative to Los Angeles or San Diego should be explored.

Ruffo has the obligation to ensure the success of his tenure, and I do not believe that Salinas will try to strangle his administration economically. When Xicotencatl Leyva, the former governor of Baja, tried to suffocate then-mayor Ruffo by withholding street-cleaning funds from Ensenada, Ruffo grabbed a broom and began sweeping the streets himself. Soon the people joined him, and two years later they had swept Ruffo into history as Mexico’s first opposition-party governor. Surely, President Salinas will keep that in mind.