Move to Preserve Contras Faltering : U.S. Bid to Stall Disarmament Plan Appears Doomed

The Bush Administration has mounted a last-minute effort to stop or delay a Central American plan to disarm the Nicaraguan Contras, but its chances of success appear slim, officials said Thursday.

Instead, they said, the five presidents of Central America appear prepared to adopt a plan this weekend that will call for the early demobilization of the rebel force--and that, one official said, “could be the end of the line for the resistance.”

The leaders of the five Central American nations--Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Costa Rica--plan to meet beginning Saturday in the town of Tela, on Honduras’ Caribbean coast.

The top item on their agenda is reaching an agreement to demobilize the Contras, most of whose estimated 12,000 guerrillas are based in southeastern Honduras.

Bush Call Told

Last week President Bush telephoned the presidents of the four U.S. allies in Central America--each nation except Nicaragua--to urge them not to adopt a plan that would dismantle the Contras before Nicaragua conducts presidential elections next February, officials said.

The Administration’s view is that the presence of the Contras is the only way to pressure Nicaragua’s Marxist regime to make its elections fair, they said.

But Bush’s plea made little apparent headway, officials said. Since then the Administration has had to soften its position, saying that it would accept a demobilization plan that begins before Nicaragua’s election, as long as it has some clear link to a process of democratization inside the country.

“The Administration’s position is that demobilization and democratization are linked,” a senior State Department official said Thursday. “. . . If the Sandinistas wish to encourage the resistance to return prior to the elections, they have the means to do so.

‘Narrow Goal’ Seen

“Frankly, it is not clear that the Sandinista government really wants to embrace national reconciliation and reintegration of the resistance,” he added. “Their narrow goal appears to be simply to take away their weapons and let them scatter to the winds.”

But the Administration’s immediate dilemma is not with the Sandinistas--who have always sought to eliminate the Contras--but with allies like Honduras, on whom the United States has previously depended to carry U.S. views into Central American negotiations.

“The Hondurans have been waiting for Bush to come up with a clear position on this issue, one that would give them a sense of security about maintaining 12,000 Contras on their territory, but we haven’t given them one,” one official said. “They have pretty much run out of patience.”

The Administration has put considerable pressure on Honduras, officials and Central American diplomats say, withholding $70 million in promised economic aid and pointedly informing the Honduran government that the United States will not help disarm the Contras under a plan for early demobilization.

Capitol Hill Ally

But the Hondurans, who have long chafed at the Contras’ continuing presence, appear intent on adopting a demobilization plan. And they have acquired an ally on Capitol Hill--liberal Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), who is pressing the Administration to agree to a demobilization program and to release the Hondurans’ $70 million.

Dodd told reporters that the bipartisan agreement under which Congress approved non-military aid for the Contras last March depended in part on an understanding with Democrats that the Administration would support the Central American peace initiative--including the possibility of demobilizing the Contras. And he pointed out that the agreement allows the congressional leadership to cut off aid in November if those conditions are not being met.

“I’m convinced . . . that if the Administration succeeds in postponing any demobilization until after Feb. 25 (Nicaragua’s election day), you will see humanitarian aid to the Contras cut off on Nov. 30,” he said.

And, he added, “as for the notion that you’re going to come in on Feb. 26 and ask for another year of aid, forget it.”

‘Zero’ 1990 Outlook

A U.S. official agreed that the chances for renewed aid to the Contras next year--even non-military aid--”are about zero.”

“We called the Contra commanders in for a meeting about two weeks ago,” he said. “We made it clear that there wasn’t going to be any more aid. We also made it clear that Americans were not going to go into Yamales (the main Contra camp in Honduras) and take their weapons away and force them into refugee camps. We told them, ‘If there’s going to continue to be a viable resistance, it’s going to be up to you.’

“I was surprised with the calmness with which they took it,” he said. “They said: ‘If there is a demobilization plan that we can’t accept, some of us will go into the mountains and keep fighting.’ ”