Rabin Sees New Demand Paving Way for Prisoner Swap

Israeli Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin thinks that a new demand made by Muslim militants in Lebanon has paved the way for a prisoner exchange, Rabin’s spokesman said Thursday.

The spokesman, Eitan Haber, referred to a statement issued earlier Thursday in Lebanon announcing the lifting of a threat to kill American hostage Joseph J. Cicippio and demanding freedom for the Muslim leader seized by Israeli commandos plus other Palestinian prisoners.

Haber said the Muslim militants appeared to hint at an exchange, saying they would provide the Red Cross with a list of prisoners they want freed by the Israelis.

“They want to prepare a list of prisoners,” he said. “We do, too.”

Haber went on to say: “The purpose of our action in Lebanon (in seizing Sheik Abdel Karim Obeid last week) was to bring back our prisoners and missing soldiers home to Israel. If the information coming from Beirut is correct, we shall look at their suggestion with interest.”

Rabin Developed Plan

Defense Minister Rabin is considered the key figure in Israel’s strategy to recover its soldiers. He formulated the plan to abduct Obeid, a Muslim clergyman, in order to improve the chances for a prisoner exchange. Traditionally, the Defense Ministry negotiates for the return of missing soldiers.

It was not clear whether Israel would include American and other foreign hostages on the list of people it wants liberated. Earlier in the day, a senior Foreign Ministry official said that Israel now considers Western hostages and Israel’s captives to be part of the same “pie” and that no exchange would be complete without all being freed or accounted for.

Obeid’s abduction touched off an international crisis as followers of Hezbollah, the Muslim terrorist group to which Obeid belongs, threatened to kill Western hostages in retaliation unless Obeid were released.

A group that called itself the Organization of the Oppressed on Earth announced Monday that it had hanged one of the hostage Americans, Marine Lt. Col. William R. Higgins. Another group, the Revolutionary Justice Organization, threatened to kill Cicippio. Both groups are believed to be factions of Hezbollah.

On Thursday night, the Revolutionary Justice Organization announced that it had suspended the death threat against Cicippio and set forth a new demand.

In addition to the release of Obeid, the group demanded freedom for Lebanese prisoners held by Israel and freedom for Palestinians held for involvement in the Arab uprising in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Israel holds scores of Lebanese prisoners in southern Lebanon and thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israel.

An official at the Foreign Ministry, in response to reporters’ questions, said, “We are saying exactly nothing.” He added, however, that he was relieved that Cicippio had not been killed.

Ex-Prisoners Tied to Uprising

Addition of the Palestinian prisoners to the earlier demands could create resistance in Israel. Four years ago, Israel freed 1,200 Palestinians in return for the liberation of three soldiers held by Palestinian groups in Lebanon, and analysts here say the freed prisoners became the core organizing force of the Arab uprising in the occupied territories.

Government sources said the Palestinians could be included in an exchange only if they were expelled to Lebanon.

The suspension of the death sentence against Cicippio led Israeli officials to think that the crisis may have crested.

“Once the immediate passion is gone, it is less likely the threats will be renewed,” a senior Foreign Ministry official said.

Israeli officials also expressed confidence that after days of strain in relations with the United States, Washington is now committed to Israel’s view of how to deal with the hostage crisis.

The officials appeared pleased at what they considered a reduction of pressure on Israel to free Obeid. They viewed the combination of having Obeid in their hands and getting U.S. support as offering the best chance for the release of the Muslim militants’ hostages.

“For the past 48 hours, we have been in close coordination with the United States,” a senior Foreign Ministry official said.

Pressure should be applied mainly to Iran, Israeli officials said. They said the movement of U.S. warships in the Mediterranean was a step in the right direction.

The officials said that Israel and the United States embrace the same guiding principles: to refuse to free Obeid unless Hezbollah agrees to a prisoner exchange; to place sole responsibility on the Muslim extremists for endangering American hostages; to threaten to retaliate if the hostages are harmed.

Adherence to these principles, the officials said, will encourage the militants to accept Israel’s offer to exchange Obeid and other prisoners for the hostages--barring something unexpected.

“Of course, the crazies up in Lebanon could defy all this,” one official said.

Israel was stunned by the early negative reaction to its abduction of Obeid and two associates. It had hoped to use Obeid to make a deal for the release of Israeli captives and perhaps other foreigners held in Lebanon. Criticism that Israel’s unilateral act had put the hostages in danger prompted Israel to undertake a public relations campaign to defend itself.

Deputy Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was put in charge of monitoring the political fallout. An official in the Foreign Ministry said that the public opinion score card looked better than it did a few days ago.

“Our consulate in New York was getting three negative phone calls for every two in our favor,” he said. “Now, it’s 5 to 1 for us! There were phone calls to the BBC in Britain--75% like our stand.”

Besides keeping the Bush Administration in its corner, Israel is counting on the value of Obeid to Hezbollah. Israeli officials insist that Obeid is going to be an important source of intelligence--unless Hezbollah agrees soon to an exchange and gets him away from Israeli interrogators.

“He’s talking,” a high-ranking Israeli official said. “He’ll talk more. And they know it. He’s giving names--and addresses.”

Israeli officials blame Obeid for many acts of violence dating back to 1983, including car bombings, attacks on Israeli soldiers and the abduction of Higgins.

But some observers are not so sure. A foreign security official in Lebanon said, “If I were to name the 50 Hezbollah leaders who make decisions in south Lebanon, he would not be on the list.”

Up until his abduction, Obeid was considered less than an important leader in Hezbollah’s southern Lebanon operations. Rather, it was a Hezbollah leader named Abbas Musawi who ran guerrillas against Israel in the south. Obeid was described as a cheerleader and dispenser of money to needy Shiite Muslim families.

The loud and threatening reaction to his abduction, experts here say, is based not so much on what he knows as on what he stands for. The abduction of a Muslim clergyman is an affront to Islam.

Suspicions that Obeid might not be a top-rank figure emerged quickly because of the ease with which he was captured. Israeli commandos blew in the door of his house in Jibchit village and took him away without much difficulty.

Deputy Foreign Minister Netanyahu, asked about these suspicions, said: “Obeid thought he was in Hezbollah heaven--a place where he was immune. So he didn’t need any guards.”