Pro-Choice Forces Take Credit for Victory in 76th

Drawing battle lines likely to be seen in elections nationwide next year, abortion rights advocates claimed credit Wednesday for a pro-choice Republican’s narrow victory in a special state Assembly contest that demonstrated anew the volatile issue’s political potency.

In a result widely viewed as proof of the political fallout of last month’s U. S. Supreme Court abortion ruling, Tricia Hunter, the only pro-choice Republican in an eight-candidate field, had a razor-thin 197-vote lead over Poway businessman Dick Lyles--14,822 to 14,625--with only 132 absentee ballots remaining to be counted today.

Because no candidate received more than 50% in the primary, Hunter will face Democrat Jeannine Correia, who is also pro-choice, in an Oct. 3 runoff to select a successor to the late Bill Bradley (R-Escondido). By virtue of Republicans’ 54%-33% registration edge, Hunter, a 37-year-old registered nurse from Bonita, is a prohibitive favorite to win the runoff in the 76th District, a rural and suburban expanse stretching from the South Bay to northeastern San Diego County and into southern Riverside County.

Conservative District

With Tuesday’s primary being among the first legislative contests in the nation since the Supreme Court gave the states new powers to regulate abortions, both sides hoped to use the outcome for public-relations purposes as they prepare for next year’s state and national elections.

Pro-choice forces were particularly enthused over the prospect of capturing a seat in a staunchly conservative district, and lost no time Wednesday in characterizing Hunter’s victory as a message to politicians across the country.

“This shows that a clear, articulate statement supporting a woman’s right to decide was a plus in a district where no one ever thought it could be,” said Robin Schneider, a director of California Abortion Rights Action League. “The (abortion) issue clearly differentiated Tricia Hunter from her opponents, and the voters responded.”

But Brian Johnston, California director of the National Right to Life Committee, an anti-abortion group, described Hunter’s win as a “Pyrrhic victory” made possible by Democratic crossover votes and the support of “ultra-liberal” groups such as the American Civil Liberties Union.

“They have spent a lot of money to buy that seat, and in order to keep it, they’re going to have to keep on spending that money,” Johnston said.

As they had throughout the campaign, anti-abortion groups discouraged interpretation of Hunter’s slim victory as an up-or-down vote on the emotional issue. However, they encouraged Lyles to wage a write-in campaign in October or else run against Hunter in next June’s regular GOP primary.

“Regardless of whether it was a referendum, the abortion lobby caused it to be seen that way,” said Jeannette Dreisbach of Palm Springs, legislative director of the California Pro-Life Medical Assn. “And to be left with a choice between Hunter and Correia leaves us with no choice at all. Once Mr. Lyles gets over being bummed out, I think he’ll realize that a write-in campaign would have a good chance of succeeding.”

Lyles’ campaign aides said Wednesday that he will not decide whether to request a recount or about a possible write-in campaign until the election results are certified by the secretary of state’s office, probably early next week.

Tailor-Made for Hunter

The emergence of abortion as a pivotal issue in the campaign’s final month, combined with the unusual rules governing special legislative primaries--in which all candidates of all parties appear on a single ballot--created a race that was tailor-made for the Hunter campaign. Not only did most Republican officeholders split their support between two of her opponents--Lyles and Poway City Councilwoman Linda Brannon--but anti-abortion groups also failed to coalesce around a single candidate.

Pro-choice groups, looking to add a vote for their side in the closely divided Assembly, took maximum advantage of their unusual opportunity to gain an ally from normally unfriendly political territory.

The Abortion Rights Action League, for example, organized an effort to identify pro-choice voters--Democrats and Republicans alike--and urged them to vote for Hunter. The group eventually contacted about 5,300 voters, Schneider said, in a project that will serve as a model for the group’s affiliates across the nation.

The National Organization for Women’s California chapter also supported Hunter, contributing $3,000 to her campaign and sending letters to its members in the district on her behalf.

“This shows that the pro-choice vote is out there, even in the most conservative districts, and it can be mobilized,” said Linda Joplin, statewide coordinator of California NOW.

Hunter, a two-term member of the state Board of Registered Nursing, also enjoyed strong support from the California Nurses Assn., which poured about $96,000 into an independent campaign on her behalf.

Describing the abortion issue as a “major factor” in her victory, Hunter noted that it served as a magnet for campaign contributions and volunteers and generated intense media coverage, including reports by four national television networks, that produced a meteoric rise in her name recognition.

“I’d give (it) very much credit for helping me win this race,” Hunter said. Hunter mailers that were targeted to pro-choice voters also framed the race in terms of the stakes on the abortion issue, such as one headlined: “Who controls your body? You or far-right extremists?”

Nevertheless, Hunter disputed some of her opponents’ efforts to portray her as a one-issue candidate, saying: “I ran an issue-oriented campaign on a lot of issues, not just abortion. We were getting support because of my other positions before abortion even became an issue.”

The Issue Counted

Most of Hunter’s opponents argued that, in the absence of the abortion issue, Hunter probably would have ended the campaign where she began it--mired in the middle of the pack along with several other credible but unknown candidates in an otherwise obscure campaign.

“That issue made Tricia Hunter,” said Bob Schuman, Lyles’ campaign manager.

Herb Williams, the campaign consultant of Poway Councilwoman Brannon, who was viewed at the outset as one of the co-favorites but faded to a fourth-place finish, said his polling showed that Hunter’s support nearly tripled in the week after the Supreme Court’s July 3 ruling.

“Take away that, and Hunter would not have been a viable candidate,” Williams said. “Until then, it was going to be a Lyles-Brannon race. After abortion became an issue, it never was.”

Brannon was seriously hurt in the race, Williams argued, by her “pro-responsibility” position, which combined her personal opposition to abortion with a willingness to support abortions under more limited circumstances than they are now available.

“What that meant was that Linda was in the middle and satisfied no one,” Williams said. “She wasn’t pure enough to pass either side’s litmus test.”

Concurring with that analysis, Hunter said: “The lesson of this race is that people are going to have to take a position on this issue. Voters expect candidates to come down on one side or the other, and aren’t going to respond to people who try to stay in the middle.”

The election’s outcome also bore out anti-abortion activists’ worst fears that, with their resources--financial, manpower and votes--split among several Republicans, Hunter’s pro-choice position left her in a strategically advantageous position from which she could attract support from both moderate Republicans and Democrats.

“That’s exactly what we were afraid of, and that’s what happened,” said the Rev. Billy Falling, head of the Escondido-based Christian Voters League, a fundamentalist religious and political organization.

“Hunter basically had one side of the field to herself,” Brannon strategist Williams said. “The pro-choicers could coalesce behind one candidate without offending anyone. But the pro-life support went in at least three directions.”

Although estimates of the crossover Democratic votes received by Hunter are based more on educated guesswork than hard numbers, political arithmetic suggests that the total might have been substantial.

If the election’s overall 20% turnout figure held accurate for Democrats, about 15,000 of the district’s 78,284 Democrats went to the polls. However, the two Democrats in the primary--Correia, an instructor of the retarded, and county mental health worker Stephen Thorne--drew only about 4,500 votes between them.

That differential raised interesting theories Wednesday about where the other 10,000-plus Democratic votes might have gone. Even if the Democratic turnout was only 10%, that still would have produced more than 3,000 votes beyond the two Democrats’ combined total.

Hunter’s pro-choice stance and other positions--notably, her strong support for a ban on the sale of assault rifles--left her well-positioned to attract those crossover votes, Williams argued.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that a big chunk of Hunter’s votes came from Democrats,” Williams said.

Hunter, noting that Brannon also made a mailed appeal to Democrats, said she “cannot even make a wild guess” at a breakdown of the crossover vote.

“No one knows exactly where their votes came from, or whether they came from Republicans or Democrats or independents,” Hunter said. “All I know is that I got the most total votes. And that’s what counts.”