Big Market Seen for Bomb Detectors

Every day, thousands of pieces of luggage--suitcases, duffels, boxes, cassette recorders--pass through the terminals at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. And airline passengers are more aware now than ever that any one of these could be hiding a bomb.

Science Applications International Corp. of San Diego, however, believes it has something to calm passengers’ nerves. The company will unveil a thermal neutron analysis explosives detection system at the busy airport next month.

A Federal Aviation Administration ruling that will take effect in September will require airlines to install explosive-detection systems such as the one manufactured by Science Applications at about 40 “high-risk” U.S. and foreign airports. Kennedy will be the first air terminal to use such a detection unit, although Gatwick Airport near London should be equipped with them soon.

Some observers believe that over the next decade, the FAA could require that as many as 1,250 such bomb detection units be installed in the United States and abroad, creating a huge market for Science Applications and others.

An FAA ruling expected to be made next month will detail just how many explosive detection systems units are to be required. It will dictate how many U.S. and international airports will be required to use the units, how many flights would have to employ them and what the timetable would be for installation.

The Science Applications machine is the only FAA-approved detector now available. It is a conveyor-belt system that weighs about 20,000 pounds and is 6 feet tall, 7 1/2 feet wide and 13 feet deep. Each sells for nearly $1 million.

Industry analysts, however, expect the forthcoming FAA ruling to spur other manufacturers to develop competing models for a share of what could be a billion-dollar market.

“There’s been interest in explosive detection systems for quite some time, but Flight 103 was the real catalyst,” said John Murphy, a research analyst at Drexel Burnham Lambert in New York, referring to the Pan Am jet that crashed last December over Lockerbie, Scotland, after a terrorist’s plastic explosive went off. All 259 people aboard died.

“That’s what caused the public outcry, what got the politicians moving. That’s what forced FAA to come out with this ruling,” Murphy said.

There are now only two major contenders for explosive detection systems business, Murphy said. Science Applications is one; the other, he said, is Thermedics of Woburn, Mass., which sells a detection unit that has yet to obtain FAA approval. Thermedics officials said this month that the FAA was evaluating their product.

Industry analysts believe that as many as a dozen other companies might enter the market over the next two years. Two other San Diego companies--GAMMA-METRICS and Titan Corp.--have technology that could be applied for explosive-detection systems. Both, however, are waiting to see what the requirements are in the FAA ruling before they embark on developing any products.

It appears, then, that Science Applications will be the first to reap the riches of the explosive detection-systems market with its thermal neutron analysis system.

Science Applications officials say the detectors, which have been in development since 1985, are worth every penny.

“The current X-ray machines are good to detect metal objects and some explosives, but it only outlines the shape of objects in two dimensions,” said Tsahi Gozani, Science Applications vice president and chief scientist, who is based in Santa Clara. “You’re relying on the operator to spot a suspicious device. If it’s well concealed in a cluttered suitcase, it can get by undetected.”

‘Signature’ Rays

The thermal neutron analysis detector does not rely on human judgment. Its conveyor belt sends luggage through a field of thermal neutrons. Each item examined emits gamma rays as it passes through this field. Commercial and military explosives all contain nitrogenous material that, when bathed through thermal neutrons, emits unique “signature” gamma rays. These “fingerprints” inform the detector that something that may be an explosive has been spotted, and the machine sounds an alarm.

Another selling point is that the system is effective at detecting a variety of bombs, including the extremely potent plastic ones such as Semtex, that normally escape detection by conventional X-ray machines and bomb-sniffing dogs. Authorities have determined that a Semtex was the culprit in the Pan Am explosion.

“Even if you have a good, attentive X-ray operator, plastic explosives can be shaped or molded to look innocuous,” Gozani said. “In such cases, it’s practically impossible to detect them.”

Science Applications recently tested its detector at Los Angeles and San Francisco international airports, screening 40,000 pieces of luggage at each. Some of the bags contained simulated explosives, Gozani said, and the test showed the detector to be 95% effective. Fewer than 5% of bags containing harmless items such as heavy wool coats also set off alarms, Gozani said. He added that a heavy wool coat is one of the other items besides an explosive that will contain a high concentration of nitrogenous material.

Question About Radiation

During the tests, the machine processed 10 pieces of luggage a minute; traditional X-ray systems scan 15 pieces a minute.

The machine can be made 100% effective, Gozani said, but greater sensitivity could send the rate of false readings up as high as 20%.

Some critics are concerned that the Science Applications device generates harmful residual radiation; company officials maintain that it does not.

“We’ve invested a lot of effort on that, and it’s been studied to death,” Gozani said about radiation emission. “The radiation is absolutely minimal. There is no danger.” The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the state Office of Radiological Health has determined that the machine does not generate harmful levels of radiation.

Science Applications initially used thermal neutron analysis technology in its coal analyzer, which Gozani developed in 1980. It detected sulfur emissions from coal for pollution control systems. After the coal analyzer saw some success, Science Applications scientists were looking for other uses for the technology, a company spokesman said. They soon learned that the FAA was soliciting bids to build explosive detection systems, and the FAA awarded a contract to Science Applications in 1985. Since then, Science Applications has received $12 million in government money to research and develop the thermal neutron analysis detector.

The FAA has purchased six detection systems so far, and the agency has an option to purchase four more.

Awaiting Ruling

Science Applications officials say the FAA’s ruling in September could create a much larger market. “By early next year, we’ll be able to produce 50 to 100 units a year, and more, if there’s a greater demand,” said Chuck Nichols, Science Applications vice president.

Whether such a demand materializes depends, of course, on what the ruling says.

The FAA issued a draft of the ruling on July 6. According to the draft, screening of checked baggage for U. S. international flights departing from 40 “high-risk” domestic and foreign airports would be required, and by 1999, checked baggage for all U. S. international flights would have to be examined. Complying with that requirement would take about 400 of the detection units, at a cost of more than $450 million.

The FAA is considering three alternatives but, by congressional order, must decide which by Aug. 29, FAA spokesman John Leyden said. The most stringent would require the installation of 1,250 units to screen checked baggage for domestic and international flights at 427 U. S. and 95 foreign airports. Complying with that option would cost more than $1 billion.

The third and least costly alternative, which would require 270 units by 1999 at a cost of $300 million, is the version the airline industry is backing. The Air Transportation Assn., the Washington-based trade group for major U.S. airlines, advocates screening checked baggage for international flights at certain airports only when there is a threat of a terrorist attack, association spokesman Tim Neale said.

The airline industry is lobbying against the more costly alternatives because its member carriers, not the government, would probably be stuck with the installation bill, Neale said.

‘Surrogate Target’

“The purpose of the explosive-detection systems is to protect American lives overseas. Therefore, we feel that it is a legitimate public expenditure,” Neale said. “We are a surrogate target. The government is the true target. Why should we have to pay for it?”

Although the industry agrees that the Science Applications detector has shown some evidence of its potential, he said, the association believes that it should be proven in prolonged operation.

“It’s a very valuable new tool,” Neale said, “but it hasn’t really been tested in an operational setting. For example, it could take an awfully long time if you get a lot of false alarms, and you can imagine what kind of delays that could cause.

“On top of that, the device is very large and very heavy. We’re limited as to where we can put them. In many cases, we’ll have to build a special shed for them.

“The carriers are still trying to figure out how they’re going to integrate it into their systems.”

Airline industry officials say they are hoping competing companies will enter the market with smaller, lighter and less-expensive detectors.

Meanwhile, analysts and manufacturers are watching to see how the transportation association’s views will affect the the FAA ruling.

“The resistance from the airlines is very vociferous, which will force the FAA to pass the ruling in the least-stringent way--at least that’s my assessment,” said Mike Carstens, a research analyst at Tucker Anthony, an investment brokerage firm in New York. “But such requirements for explosive-detection systems systems will become more and more stringent. Over the next two years, it’s going to become a significant market.”

Whatever form it takes, the FAA ruling will undoubtedly increase the demand for a variety of explosive detection systems, including portable units for carry-on luggage, said Tina Rizopoulos, a senior research analyst at Paine Webber in New York. “It puts pressure on the air transportation industry,” Rizopoulos said.

Portable Detector

Thermedics is banking on just such a pressure.

“The device is effective in what it does, but it’s not going to help you check carry-on baggage or the passengers themselves,” said John Wood, Thermedics’ president, of the thermal neutron analysis device. Thermedics has spent about $15 million to produce its EGIS portable detector, which is expected to receive final approval this fall from the State Department.

The State Department tapped Thermedics to develop such a device to check cars, packages and personnel at U. S. embassies after the 1983 bombing of the U. S. embassy and Marine compound in Beirut, Lebanon. The FAA is also evaluating the EGIS for use in airport terminals.

The EGIS detector is a hand-held scanner that weighs 10 pounds and costs $125,000. It is passed over an item for 15 seconds to collect an air sample, then plugged into a computer that spends 30 seconds analyzing the air sample. If no explosive material is detected, the computer will flash a green light. If one is found, a red one will light and a computer readout will specify the type and size of the explosive.

“It’s extremely user-friendly,” Wood said. It is extremely sensitive, he said, with the ability to detect suspicious materials in concentrations as scarce as one part per 100 trillion.

Advantages Described

Although the EGIS is now too slow to be used effectively in scanning checked baggage, Wood says it can be used to screen carry-on items. Such a role could be of great importance, he said. Six of the last 15 attempted or actual airline bombings involved explosives taken into the cabin either on a passenger or in carry-on luggage.

The device would, Wood added, help avoid a ban of lap-top computers, portable radios and other electronic devices that the government is considering imposing. Experts say the plastic explosive in the Pan Am plane was concealed in a cassette player.

“We realize the current ruling doesn’t immediately affect us, since the FAA is looking for a conveyor-belt system that can screen checked baggage,” Wood said. “But we’re hoping that the FAA will approve a number of different systems. No single detection system used alone is going to work.”

Thermedics plans to have manufactured 34 units by the end of the year. In 1990, it expects to be producing 10 units a month.

Others Ponder Market

Other San Diego companies are also pondering the market for explosive-detection systems.

“At this time, we’re not making an announcement on whether or when a product like that might be forthcoming,” said Gene Ray, president of Titan Corp., a high-technology defense electronics firm. Titan has for the last two years been working on a “super X-ray machine” to detect buried mines.

“We have been developing our technology for other purposes, but we believe this can be adapted very nicely for such a program,” Ray said. “Our technology will be able to detect plastic explosives as well.”

GAMMA-METRICS, which manufactures industrial instrumentation and controls, has been using thermal neutron technology for a long time in industrial applications, primarily pollution-control systems, said Ernesto Corte, GAMMA-METRICS president.

“We would have the capability to adapt our technology to other applications,” Corte said. “If the FAA ruling completes its review cycle and becomes law, there has to be an industry developing around that requirement.”

Corte delined to say whether GAMMA-METRICS would create an explosive detection system, but, like others who have the potential to make one, simply said: “We are watching how the market develops.”