In a Test of Wills, Panama’s Noriega Shows No Signs of Bending to U.S.

More than a week of spectacular American military maneuvers, fruitless political negotiations and a shift of U.S. policy has failed again to break the will of Gen. Manuel A. Noriega, Panama’s military ruler. He remains in full control with no indication that he will give up power.

“There are no signs of any progress,” a diplomatic source said in a telephone interview over the weekend. “There is no reason for optimism” in the effort to drive Noriega from power.

Washington has sought the removal of the general it once favored since early 1988, when Noriega was indicted by two federal grand juries in Florida on drug-trafficking charges. The United States tried last week to raise the pressure by staging aggressive and large-scale military maneuvers, including exercises in the streets of Panama City, under the guise of asserting rights under the Panama Canal treaties that assign the defense of the waterway to American troops.

Designed to Weaken Morale

However, military sources acknowledged that the U.S. maneuvers also were designed to weaken the morale of the Panama Defense Forces and undermine Noriega’s arguments that the Americans have neither the will nor the ability to threaten his power.

Until two weeks ago, American maneuvers were generally limited to running convoys between various U.S. bases along the canal. But starting Aug. 9, the U.S. Southern Command, which is based just outside Panama City, changed its policy.

That day, heavily armed American units using armored troop carriers and helicopters blockaded Ft. Amador, a large installation shared by the Panama Defense Forces and U.S. troops and containing key Panamanian military facilities, including an office and house used by Noriega.

Then, after a series of small but potentially deadly confrontations between U.S. and Panamanian forces last week, American columns began moving through the streets of Panama City.

At one point, U.S. soldiers occupied a large area of the downtown section where Panama’s courts are located. Then, last Thursday, a special U.S. Marine Corps strike force using helicopters descended on the area surrounding the American Embassy and closed it off to Panamanian forces.

‘It Was Something to See’

“It was spectacular,” said a witness in a telephone conversation. “The helicopters suddenly appeared and the Marines came down on ropes. It was something to see.”

Panama has protested that the exercises are invasions of its sovereignty and are tantamount to a military invasion. One U.S. official countered that SouthCom, as the Southern Command is commonly called, is “bringing to bear sufficient force to assert U.S. treaty rights as called for by President Bush.”

So far, the Panamanians have backed off, but “the confrontations have led to potentially explosive situations,” said a diplomat.

How long an incident of shooting can be avoided is questionable, said a European diplomat. “The PDF is clearly stung and is increasingly frustrated, and it is stepping up its harassment of individual Americans in the country.”

Against this military posturing has been a sputtering and so far meaningless round of talks between Noriega’s agents and leaders of the country’s political opposition.

Under auspices of the Organization of American States, the two sides have been trying to negotiate an end to the political crisis that arose after Noriega refused to accept what international observers said was the overwhelming defeat of the general’s handpicked candidate for president in elections May 7. The observers said that Noriega first tried to rig the vote count. When that failed, his puppet civilian administration nullified the election, and Noriega has since rejected all suggestions that the opposition, internationally viewed as the clear winner, be installed in office.

The opposition, insisting it should be allowed to take power on the Sept. 1 date fixed by the constitution, has proposed a plebiscite on whether Noriega should give up power. The general has said no.

As it stands, face-to-face talks broke down Friday, although the OAS says that indirect talks continue, with Secretary General Joao Baena Soares shuttling between the contending sides.

Opposition Sees No Hope

Carlos Duque, Noriega’s presidential candidate, told reporters Saturday that “we are determined as ever to find a political solution” through the indirect talks. But opposition sources said in a telephone interview that they expect nothing to come of the talks.

“This is the last stage,” said Ricardo Arias Calderon of the opposition Christian Democratic Party, “and I don’t see how anything can come of this when the government wouldn’t move in direct talks.”

A diplomat close to the talks echoed that sentiment. “When they were sitting in the same room, they just repeated the same old stands and were talking past each other. Now they are sitting in separate rooms and talking past each other.”

Other opposition sources, who asked not to be named to avoid offending the United States, said the situation hasn’t been helped by what they see as waffling by the Bush Administration.

After steadfastly insisting that not only must Noriega give up power but that he must also leave Panama, the Administration last week changed its position. State Department spokesmen said that Washington now insists only that Noriega relinquish power, although they could not explain how that might be accomplished if he is allowed to remain in the country.

“That sort of thing only gives Noriega confidence,” said an opposition source. “He has always believed that he can outlast the Americans, and when Washington backs down, even a little bit, he gains confidence.”

For his part, Noriega is increasing his pressure on the opposition and is increasingly isolating the country from outside influences.

Seized TV Network

Last week, for example, he seized and shut down a privately owned television network that, in a cautious way, had broadcast some opposition views.

In addition, Noriega has all but closed his country to outside journalists. With the limited exceptions of brief visits by American and British news agencies that distribute their services to government-controlled newspapers, no correspondent for major American and European newspaper and broadcast media has been allowed into Panama since the end of May.

“Noriega thinks if he keeps you (foreign reporters) out, the world will forget what’s going on here and the international pressure against him will go away,” a European diplomat said.

So far, even American diplomats agree. “I personally don’t see any more reason for Noriega to leave now than before,” said one such official. “He outlasted us before, and he may well do it again.”