Army Better Equipped, More Resolute, U.S. Experts Say : Colombia Seems Set to Take on Cartels

Bolstered by millions of dollars’ worth of seized equipment and encouraged by the prospect of increasing U.S. aid, the once-scorned Colombian army seems to be better able than it has been for years to meet the threat of “total war” from the nation’s cocaine barons, U.S. officials and non-government experts said Thursday.

The Medellin and Cali drug cartels control billions of dollars in assets--probably more than the budget of the Colombian armed forces--and can continue to launch individual terrorist attacks and bombings, like those targeting political party offices Thursday.

However, U.S. experts said, the drug kingpins have never tried to mount an armed force for larger-scale action. With 86,000 men in uniform, Colombia appears to have adequate military power to turn back direct assaults and also can now take more effective action to strike back at drug strongholds spawning terrorism.

More than ever, “It is a question of political will” by Colombian leaders, said Rob Kurz, a guest scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “The assassinations of the last week or so seem to have broken the tolerance of the government and people of Colombia toward the Medellin cartel. It has never been a question of whether the Colombian military has the capacity to take on these people. They refused to do it.”

U.S. officials have long feared that narcotics money had corrupted the Colombian government and its armed forces. But these officials said that the government began to turn around its anti-narcotics effort earlier this year. The assassination last week of Sen. Luis Carlos Galan, a leading presidential candidate, by narcotics cartel hit men seems to have galvanized the government into increased action.

100 Aircraft Seized

According to Colombian newspaper estimates, the government seized up to $200 million worth of drug traffickers’ property during a weekend sweep of luxurious ranches and other houses. Among the seizures were about 100 aircraft, both helicopters and fixed-wing planes. If all of those aircraft are pressed into duty against the cartel, it would virtually double the capacity of the Colombian air force, according to estimates by the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.

Bush Administration officials in Washington said the U.S. government hopes to accelerate its aid to Colombian anti-drug efforts. Pentagon officials reportedly have provided the White House with a list of military hardware that could be provided to the Latin American nation if it is requested.

Colombia’s justice minister is expected to meet with Atty. Gen. Dick Thornburgh in the next few days to discuss what U.S. support and assistance Columbia will seek.

Although drug traffickers associated with the Medellin cartel issued a statement Thursday declaring “total war” against the government, U.S. experts believe the cartel will be playing into the government’s hands if it shifts to larger-scale attacks.

“There is no doubt that the drug kingpins are very well protected,” said Thomas Reckford, an expert on analyzing the risks faced by international businessmen. “But I don’t think the drug kingpins want to get into pitched battles.”

Nevertheless, U.S. officials concede that the Colombian military needs better equipment.

“For some time, the Colombian military has not received a very significant chunk of the national budget because the government assigned higher priorities to social programs,” a State Department official in Washington said.

“Often the narcotics traffickers have better equipment than the military and the police,” an official at the U.S. Embassy in Bogota said. “We could easily double what we are doing, and they could absorb it usefully immediately. We’re talking helicopters, river boats, machine guns and a lot of sophisticated stuff.”

U.S. officials in Washington said there will be increased aid but probably not the volume that the official in Bogota suggested.

State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the growing drug war “shows once again the threat that the government and the institutions of Colombia are under. . . . It certainly heightens the concern about security, both for the Colombian government and for ourselves.”

“The events over the last week or so have led us to want to accelerate (and) expedite” aid programs, Boucher said. But he declined to estimate the dollar volume of the aid flow.

An embassy official said the government began a significant crackdown on the narcotics Establishment even before the Galan assassination.

“The war against the traffickers has escalated to the point where it has begun to hurt them badly,” an American narcotics expert in Bogota said. “That’s why they are reacting the way they are.”

Kempster reported from Washington and Schanche reported from Bogota, Colombia.