Kaifu Begins Visit Today : Japan’s Premier Aims to Calm U.S. on Trade

Japan’s new prime minister, Toshiki Kaifu, is scheduled to arrive in San Francisco today to begin a meandering North American tour aimed at generating positive feelings among an American public that has become increasingly irritable about a chronic $55-billion bilateral trade deficit.

Yet Kaifu will have no new policy initiatives or trade concessions when he meets Friday with President Bush in Washington, Foreign Ministry officials said.

The Japanese government is hoping that Kaifu, at 58 one of the youngest prime ministers in postwar Japan, can inject freshness into the stale debate over U.S.-Japan economic friction and charm American critics with style and sincerity in lieu of concrete action.

“We expect Mr. Kaifu’s personal traits--young, energetic, accessible, caring--will be well received by American friends,” said Yukio Okamoto, director of the Foreign Ministry’s First North American Division.

To Watch Red Sox Game

After the meeting with Bush and a major speech at the National Press Club, Kaifu will go to Boston to watch part of a Red Sox baseball game and consult with prominent academicians, including former Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer.

Kaifu also will travel to Mexico and Canada during his 10-day trip, which he undertakes barely three weeks after taking office in a climate of domestic political confusion. His ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been ravaged by financial and sexual scandals, and he is the third man to serve as prime minister this year, taking the post after his party suffered an electoral defeat in the upper house of Parliament last month.

With the possibility that the ruling party will call a lower house election by the end of the year, Kaifu’s status is anything but secure, and it remains uncertain whether he will serve merely as a caretaker until one of the party’s major power brokers asserts control. Some pundits in Tokyo are calling Kaifu’s North American tour a publicity stunt designed to bolster his image at home.

But Foreign Ministry officials are treating Kaifu as though he is here to stay. Although they deny that his diplomatic debut is for domestic consumption, they acknowledge that his image suffers from a relative lack of experience in international affairs.

“We have no doubt whatsoever of the capabilities of Mr. Kaifu to carry out his agenda,” Okamoto said. “His performance will erase any concern about him domestically.”

The substance of the prime minister’s performance, however, may be difficult for American observers to evaluate. In his meeting with Bush, he is expected to dwell on benign topics such as cooperation with the United States in protecting the global environment.

On the economic front, the government is sticking to its familiar line that problems are caused basically by a lack of thorough understanding on the part of Americans of Japan’s efforts to resolve the huge trade gap. Japan has moved to open markets and eliminate tariffs in a number of sectors, and U.S. imports are rising steadily, although Japanese exports to the United States are rising even more.

Long-Term Issue

“We certainly do not underestimate the intensity of feelings in the United States about our economic relationship,” a ranking government official said, asking not to be identified by name. “The tenacity of the economic imbalance will take a long time to resolve. We have to live with it. Yet we cannot afford to have the continuation of our mutual misunderstandings confusing relations.”

Kaifu and Bush can also be expected to discuss the so-called Structural Impediments Initiative consultations getting under way in Tokyo next Monday. These talks will move the trade dialogue away from issues involving specific trade sectors and examine structural causes for the economic imbalance.

The Americans think Japan’s distribution system serves to exclude foreign products, while the Japanese think Americans are no longer serious about making products that can be exported. The American side will probably fault the Japanese for saving too much and spending too little on consumer goods, while the Japanese will respond with the argument that Americans spend too much and don’t save enough.