Roaring Into the ‘90s : Consumers Can Expect Minivans, Moderate Price Hikes and Lots More Cars

1990 will be the year of the mule--a new, slope-nosed generation of suburban minivans built to outhaul and finally outdate the American station wagon.

1990 could hear the last hurrah for 200-m.p.h. supercars, see a luxury car market choke on excess, watch Japan roar through a high-performance sports car field previously monopolized by Ferrari and Porsche. . .

But above all, agree auto industry analysts, observers, manufacturers and dealers, 1990 will be the year of bearish bargains for car buyers.

“It will simply be a case of too many cars chasing too few buyers,” said Chris Cedegren, a manager for auto industry analysts J. D. Power & Associates of Agoura Hills.

That pursuit begins this month.

For September and October--despite a trend towards less crowded, midyear premieres--remain the season set aside for the national tradition of introducing the vehicles America will use for commuting, vacationing, shopping, courting, polishing and crashing for the next 12 months.

From now through the World Series until the first snows in Detroit, three dozen manufacturers--excluding Ferrari, Rolls-Royce, Lamborghini, Aston Martin, Range Rover and other snooty builders who bring out new vehicles only when they are good and ready--will be refitting dealer showrooms with more than 100 new models for 1990.

Some--such as the Ford Bronco II sport utility vehicle, Buick Regal, the Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme and a new Suzuki Swift--are little more than four-door versions of last year’s two-door models. A few 1990 cars--the Mazda Miata two-seater that has become an instant cult symbol, the 150-m.p.h. Nissan 300ZX, and the quite spirited 2.2-liter Subaru Legacy--were introduced in early summer and already are off and selling.

Others--such as the Buick Reatta, the Chevrolet Beretta and the Porsche 944S2--have been given convertible tops for their next birthdays. A majority of second-year (or “carry-over”) cars have been refined by turbochargers, multivalve engines, anti-lock brakes, V6 engines, all-wheel drive, or nothing more than new cladding.

Yet dozens of the new cars--including a 165-m.p.h. sports car from the Acura division of Honda, full introduction of the spectacular Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 and an optimistic pride of American-built Space Age vans--are the stuff of automotive history and tomorrow’s reference books.

And the signs of that buyer’s market are everywhere.

Porsche and Volkswagen have reduced prices on several 1990 models until some cars can be purchased for $2,500 less in the United States than in Europe. Next month, Jaguar will introduce a new car that will cost a reported $5,000 less than any current model. Despite the mandated and expensive addition of air bags or motorized passive restraint systems to 1990 models, Ford, Chrysler and General Motors have held price increases to what one analyst described as “quite manageable (average) levels of 4%.”

Other Models Continue

Cars continue to come as compacts, sub-compacts, sport coupes, luxury cars, intermediates, trucks and minitrucks, vans and minivans and minicars, sport-utility vehicles that are one thing and sporty cars that are quite another--until the now-schizophrenic buyer may be excused for wanting to trade down to a used Scwhinn Varsity.

“But there’s no doubt that if you know exactly what you want, you are going to find it available this year,” noted Dutch Mandel, a Detroit-based writer for Automotive News. “There’s a variety out there like no other time in the history of this industry.”

In terms of suburban and Middle American appeal, Mandel believes, the new All-Purpose Vehicles and Multi-Purpose Vehicles (the rule of the minivan thumb seems to be APV for domestics and MPV if imported) from General Motors, Toyota and Nissan will be the trend to watch during 1990.

They are vehicles in the $17,000 range that combine the hauling characteristics of a commercial van with the styling, passenger comforts, performance and handling of the family sedan.

General Motors will sell one van through three divisions and it will be available this fall as the Chevrolet Lumina APV, the Pontiac Trans Sport, or the Oldsmobile Silhouette.

More Vans to Come

The 1990 Nissan Axxess with a 2.4-liter engine and 138 horsepower already is on sale and replaces the Stanza Wagon. Details of Toyota’s MPV, including its name, will not be announced until next month.

To some--especially dealers who are predicting sales of 1 million minivans in 1990 compared with only 700,000 station wagons sold last year--here is the transportation for decades to come for Little League coaches, hobby gardeners and heads of large households.

“They are front-wheel drive so you don’t have that tremendous transmission tunnel in the back,” said Mickey Garrett, executive vice president of the Greater Los Angeles Motor Car Dealers Assn. “You have the height to carry a 4-foot-by-8-foot piece of plywood, the driving is comparable to a midsized car, you can easily remove the seats.

“I certainly could use one. Speaking as a father of six.”

On the other hand, cautions Mandel, minivans could stumble through the market place.

“I just hope that Mom America will feel comfortable behind the wheel,” said Mandel, who has driven the new minivans. They are short-nosed space shuttles with an enormous dashboard area between driver and windshield. “It is a decidely uncomfortable vehicle to be in. Initially.”

But Mandel is impressed by a 1990 car that, to date, has not impressed too many automotive reviewers: the Chevrolet Lumina family sedan and coupe.

Aimed at Families

It is a car aimed squarely at America’s midsection, at a huge population that cares nothing about performance numbers. This is the same segment that made Ford’s Taurus a runaway best seller. Approached as such, says Mandel, the Lumina should be quite illuminating.

“Admittedly, it is a car for the masses,” he said. “But what it offers those masses--large trunk space, Scotchgarded seats, fuel economy--is right on target. And (at an average sticker price of $16,000) it is quite affordable.”

The next 12 months will see a pitched, yet plush battle at the other end of the market scale--among luxury cars where vehicles can cost more than some small mortgages and their comforts (do you have a six-speaker CD, burglar alarm, seat warmers and remote-controlled door locks in your home?) are more complete than in the average townhouse.

It is a palatial market (in subtle variance to the palace market occupied exclusively by Rolls-Royce and Bentley) commanded by Mercedes, Jaguar, BMW, Audi, Cadillac and Lincoln. But now comes the Lexus LS400 (from a division of Toyota) and the Infiniti Q45 (from a division of Nissan).

Lexus is here. Infiniti goes on sale next month. Both are $40,000, high-performance (150-m.p.h.) sedans; all leather, all walnut trim, all silent power-built for smooth commutes between broker and beach house.

Supposedly, Lexus had sold 1,000 cars a week before it officially went on sale this month.

For Lovers of Luxury

“We’re also hearing (from Lexus dealers) that more Cadillacs and Lincolns are being traded in than was expected,” said John Rettie, editor of The California Report, an automotive marketing newsletter.

But, said Rettie, the 1990 luxury car market also includes the Chrysler New Yorker Fifth Avenue, the Lincoln Town Car and several other dinosaurs costing more than $20,000. The Lincoln Town Car Signature is big, broad, soft and brand new for 1990 and the cost of such traditional American luxury is now $30,000. The new 32-valve Audi V8 is a $47,450 four-door.

So, Rettie added, the possibility of saturating this luxury segment is “very high to extremely high.”

1990 will see a similar complexion to the high performance car market.

“In the past 10 years we have had a real bounty of performance cars,” explained Thos L. Bryant, editor of Road & Track magazine.

They include this year’s Eagle Talon and Mitsubishi Eclipse and next year’s twin-turbocharged 300ZX. Also this year, the supercharged Ford Thunderbird SC and the Ford Taurus SHO. All are quick with speeds in excess of 140 m.p.h. and represent, said Bryant, “the kind of cars that people can afford to buy in the $13,000 to $25,000 price range.”

The Chevrolet Corvette ZR1, with an astounding top speed of 180 m.p.h., faster than this year’s winning average at the Indy 500, will appear in showrooms for 1990.

So will the 270-horsepower Acura NSX (name to be announced), a mid-engined sports car good for 165 m.p.h. The NSX will cost $50,000--heftiest sticker ever for a Japanese car--and at that price, in that performance category, its obvious market targets are the Ferrari 328, the Porsche 911 and even the somewhat softer Mercedes 300 and 500SL.

Yet, says Bryant, storm warnings are up.

Environmental Concerns

“Basically, what I’m looking for in 1990 and beyond is a very serious concentration on environmental controls and the effect on fuel economy,” he said.

What Won’t Return

We wil not see, according to Bryant, a return “to the (fuel crisis) cars of 1974 when you couldn’t get them to start and they chugged along and we all hated them. What we are going to see is a cessation of (high performance) advances.”

For the A-to-V of 1990 new car introductions, Acura will present a new Integra GS that, at $17,000, Car and Driver has described as detailed “to a finesse that sets this car apart from the general run of the mid-price class . . . mature value.” From Volkswagen there is the sport coupe Corrado already on sale at $18,000 and, inbound for a March debut, the four-door, four-speed automatic Passat. At a base price of $14,770, say reviewers, it should assist Volkswagen’s return to the ranks of high-value automobiles.

After 18 years of sticking with the same old magnificent lines and engineering genius, Mercedes is changing the top of its roadster line with a full redesign of the 300SL and 500SL. The little guy costs $69,000 and will hit 150 m.p.h. It’s big brother is 5 m.p.h. faster and $4,000 more expensive.

That new but less expensive Jaguar XJ6 will cost around $40,000, which is $5,000 below the current sticker. The new vehicle, said a company spokesman, will contain “all the Jaguar elements, the leather, the wood, the ambiance” but will lose some expensive accessories.

BMW will replace its sporty 630CSi with the sleek, growling 850i powered by a V12 engine. It will cost $70,000 and from its 300 horsepower will come a top speed of 155 m.p.h.

At Lower Costs

For those interested in lower cost at lesser speeds, BMW will also import a new entry level 318is in March. The engine is a 16-valve four-banger and the car will cost $22,000.

Geo, a sub-division of Chevrolet that markets the Isuzu under a domestic badge, will show off its Storm next month. Top of the line will be the 16-valve GSI sport coupe at $12,000. In Isuzu showrooms, the same car will be the I-Mark.

Hyundai is joining the sport coupe market . . . Mazda continues to broaden its offerings by fitting the four-door 323 Protege sedan just beneath the existing Mazda 626 . . . Toyota has redesigned its Celica line that next year will stretch to a 200-horsepower, all-wheel drive, turbocharged version . . . Honda will continue to inch up market with a larger, more powerful Accord that, said a spokesman, will appear in showrooms Oct. 1 as “a benchmark car, the epitome of refinement in the mid-size auto.”

Rolls-Royce, of course, hasn’t introduced a new car since the 1981 Silver Spirit. It settles for evolution rather than revolution. For 1990, said a spokesman, there will again be “some modifications engineered into the car.”

But definitely no change in body shape.

“Our customers feel very comfortable knowing that there won’t be a bloody great sheet metal change every October,” he said.