SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA JOB MARKET : PART ONE: GETTING AHEAD : A Job Hunter's Crystal Ball : Demand in Health-Care, Service Fields Will Soar by the Year 2000

By LINDA WILLIAMS

Sept. 17, 1989 12 AM PT

<i> Times Staff Writer </i>

Southern California hospitals recently banded together in an outreach and public relations campaign to persuade young people to consider careers in health services. Some hospitals are offering bonuses to employees who refer candidates for hard-to-fill jobs.

The medical services industry is facing an acute shortage of labor, but today’s shortages mean opportunities for workers who enter the U.S. labor market in the 1990s. Health care is expected to be one of the fastest-growing employment categories as demand for workers declines in goods-producing areas and rises in service-related ones, according to employment analysts and economists.

Overall employment in the United States will rise about 19% to 133 million jobs by the year 2000, according to employment outlook studies conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the U.S. Department of Labor. Meanwhile, the labor force is expected to grow 18%.

But job growth won’t be evenly distributed across major industries and occupational groups. Indeed, some industries will lose jobs. The projections offer clues to choosing a career with a future.

Service employment--the fastest-growing industry division--is expected to rise 34% to 42.6 million in the next 10 years. The labor bureau projects that by the year 2000 nearly four of five jobs will be in industries that provide services, including banking, insurance, health care, education, data processing and management consulting.

In Los Angeles, public schools will need more math and science teachers, said Irene Yamahara, associate superintendent for personnel at the Los Angeles Unified School District. “Through the ‘90s we still see a need for elementary teachers. We have been short of elementary teachers for some time,” she said. Jobs for elementary schoolteachers also will increase, she said, because of expected retirements.

Forecasters see exceptional growth in legal and business services, including advertising, accounting, word processing and computer operations. They also see big gains in health-care jobs as demand for medical services increases. But most new jobs in the industry will be outside of hospital settings, analysts said, because the drive to control health-care costs will continue to shift more patient care to outpatient clinics.

The health-care industry is already experiencing an imbalance between demand for service and the availability of skilled workers to provide services. Ninety percent of health-care chief executives in the West report nursing shortages, according to a recent survey conducted by the executive search firm Heidrick & Struggles Inc. of Chicago.

Overall, the fastest-growing jobs in the 1990s will be “those that require the most education,” said a recent labor bureau report. The need for engineers, accountants and lawyers will grow, the report said.

Employment in retail and wholesale trade is expected to rise 27%. Retail trade will grow to 22.7 million jobs from about 17.8 million in 1988. “Over half the new retail jobs will in eating and drinking establishments. There will be substantial employment in grocery stores, department stores and other retail stores such as sporting goods, jewelry, books, cards and stationery,” according to the labor bureau’s employment outlook.

Jobs in transportation, communications and public utilities are expected to grow most slowly among the service-producing sectors. In fact, some analysts predict a decline in communications jobs as competition among providers of telephone services spurs an emphasis on productivity gains among existing workers. The cable television field is expected to level off, which would dampen growth in the sector.

Analysts expect that the only goods-producing area to grow will be the construction industry. Employment is expected to rise 18% by the year 2000. Residential construction is expected to drop as population growth slows, but nonresidential construction will take up the slack.

Nationwide, manufacturing will decline about 4%, analysts said, because of technological gains and competition that will weed out inefficient manufacturing concerns.

But the nationwide trends won’t necessarily be reflected across the board in different areas of the country. Los Angeles County tracks pretty close to the nation as a whole, but there are some notable exceptions, said Goetz Wolff, chief economic analyst for the Los Angeles Economic Roundtable.

“The Los Angeles economy is a microcosm of the nation’s. The Los Angeles economy is larger than the whole state of Michigan,” he said.

Los Angeles is expected to experience the general boom in service-related jobs, Wolff said, but added that “one of the things that is remarkable about Los Angeles County is the diversity of manufacturing.”

Manufacturing jobs in the defense industry will probably “flatten out or retreat” because of a slower growth in defense spending, he said. But non-durable manufacturing--including garment making, printing and paper manufacturing--has been growing rapidly in the county during the past few years and is expected to continue, he added.

Statewide, jobs will be created at a rate faster than the nation as a whole, primarily because the state’s population is expected to grow faster than the national rate. California should have about 14.2 million jobs by 1995, a 29% increase from 1985, according to the state Employment Development Department.

The services sector will experience the greatest job growth--nearly doubling the number of jobs--followed by the trade sector and finance, insurance and real estate.

TOMORROW’S JOBS Overall employment in the United States is expected to grow about 19% to 133 million jobs by the turn of the century. Chart indicates percent change in employment by occupational groups from 1986 to 2000.

Total, all occupations: 19%

Natural, computer and mathematical scientists: 46%

Health care: 42%

Technicians: 38%

Engineers, architects, and surveyors: 32%

Services: 31%

Marketing and sales: 30%

Management: 29%

Other professionals*: 26%

Construction: 18%

Teachers, librarians and counselors: 16%

Mechanics, installers and repairers: 15%