Hungarian Predicts Communist Defeat

The Hungarian Communist Party expects to win no more than one-third of the seats in next year’s parliamentary election, virtually assuring non-Communist opposition groups control of the government in a second East European nation, the Speaker of the present Communist-dominated Parliament said Wednesday.

Matyas Szuros, winding up a visit to the United States, predicted that by the end of this century, Hungary will become a multi-party democracy with a foreign policy that treats both East and West “with equal footing.”

Szuros, a leader of the reformist wing of the Communist Party, told a small group of reporters that Hungary needs massive assistance from the West, most of it in the form of advanced technological and management training rather than cash subsidies, to make a success of its political and economic liberalization.

So far, he said, President Bush has adopted an unhelpful “wait-and-see” attitude that seems to require Hungary to complete the reforms before qualifying for U.S. aid. He said Bush’s recent promises of support for Hungary and Poland are welcome but “for the time being, we are not getting real support from the United States.”

Meanwhile, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved legislation providing $1.3 billion in increased aid for Poland and Hungary. The vote came just one day after the measure was introduced by Sen. Alan Cranston (D-Calif.)

All 10 Democrats on the committee voted for the bill. Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) voted against it, while all the other Republicans on the panel refused to take part in the vote.

Assistant Secretary of State Raymond Seitz said the Administration opposes the Democratic plan because it is far more expensive than Bush’s proposal, which provides $100 million for Poland and $25 million for Hungary to develop the private economic sectors in the two countries. Bush has also requested $100 million in emergency food aid for Poland, which faces more severe economic problems than Hungary.

Between 25% and 33% of Vote

Shortly before the Foreign Relations Committee approved the Cranston bill, California Rep. Tom Lantos (D-San Mateo) introduced legislation identical to Cranston’s in the House.

Szuros, a former Hungarian diplomat who has served as ambassador in the Soviet Union and East Germany, predicted that the Communist Party of Hungary, officially known as the Socialist Workers Party, would win between a quarter and a third of the vote in the parliamentary election.

That would make it the largest single party in the Parliament but would leave the opposition parties with an overall majority such as the Solidarity-led opposition has in Poland’s precedent-breaking Parliament.

Under an agreement reached this week between Communist and opposition representatives, Hungary will elect a president by direct popular vote Nov. 26, with parliamentary elections to follow within three months.

Szuros said the reformist wing of the Communist Party faces potentially severe opposition from hard-liners in the ranks. He estimated that opponents of reform probably outnumber the reformers both in the rank and file and among delegates expected to attend a climactic party congress Oct. 6.

However, he said that the party’s leadership, convinced it cannot long survive as an orthodox Marxist organization, is determined that the organization will become a democratic socialist party, whether the majority of the members like it or not.

Szuros outlined tactics for assuring the success of reform that were reminiscent of those advocated by V. I. Lenin. He said that because everyone is willing to pay lip service to reform, the leadership plans to push through a reformist-sounding party platform.

Times staff writer Michael J. Ybarra contributed to this story.