Giuliani Campaign Skids Downhill : Political Experts Call Race Against Dinkins a Study in Ineptitude

The prominent Democrats marched in a row Friday near the front of the Columbus Day Parade in a traditional tableau of New York politics:

Gov. Mario M. Cuomo laughed and smiled broadly. Outgoing Mayor Edward I. Koch looked sad. Former vice presidential candidate Geraldine A. Ferraro waved repeatedly to the sparse crowds. David N. Dinkins, the mayoral candidate who vanquished Koch in the Democratic primary, was almost overshadowed by the others as he flashed brief thumbs-up signs.

Five blocks behind, heckled by AIDS activists, Rudolph W. Giuliani also marched. His position was symbolic of his mayoral campaign, which many political strategists agree, in large measure, has been a study in ineptitude.

The 45-year-old former prosecutor with a national reputation for attacking white-collar crime on Wall Street was once heavily favored to become the city’s first Republican mayor in almost a quarter century.

But he has squandered a more than 30-point lead in the polls, partially because of people ranging from comedian Jackie Mason to Panamanian strongman Manuel A. Noriega.

A month from election day, most political observers say his campaign is in deep trouble--with time beginning to run out.

“Giuliani had a bad series of events that has shaped his campaign from the start,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

‘Year of Conciliation’

“I think their strategy was ill conceived. This is a year of conciliation and healing in New York City. David Dinkins is now talking about himself as mayor and the future of New York City. Rudy Giuliani is talking about David Dinkins.

” . . . It doesn’t mean it is over, but when you are down 20 to 25 points and a month out, you need a jarring effect that will alter the campaign.”

But from day one, Giuliani’s campaign was jarred by problems. Minutes after he declared his candidacy, reporters began questioning him about the fact one of his law firm’s clients was a Panamanian bank linked to Noriega. Giuliani eventually quit the firm.

Even though he easily won the Republican mayoral primary, Giuliani was pounded for months in that contest by former ambassador to Austria Ronald Lauder, the heir to the Estee Lauder cosmetics fortune. Lauder spent almost $15 million of his own money, pressing home the theme that Giuliani was not a genuine Republican because he also was running on the Liberal Party line.

After the election, Giuliani had trouble solidifying his Republican base--votes he desperately needs in a city where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 5 to 1.

Some conservative Republicans continued to look on him with suspicion, believing they would be ignored if he were elected mayor. Sen. Alfonse M. D’Amato, who had backed Lauder, finally delivered a tepid telephone endorsement from Washington.

Some Republicans were worried privately that D’Amato even would back Dinkins, if he could find a way to escape the wrath of the White House. President Bush is scheduled to appear at a fund raiser for Giuliani in New York next week.

The value of D’Amato’s endorsement was further diluted by newspaper reports linking the senator to problems at the Department of Housing and Urban Development during the Ronald Reagan Administration.

Mason Bombs

Atop all this, comedian Jackie Mason, one of Giuliani’s ambassadors to New York’s Jewish community, bombed badly. Giuliani had made joint appearances with Mason at some stops. But then Mason told a Village Voice reporter that Jewish support for Dinkins, who is seeking to become New York’s first black mayor, was based on guilt. Mason added that Jews were “sick with complexes” and that Dinkins looks “like a black model without a job.”

Mason apologized, but Giuliani was forced to banish him from the campaign.

An advertisement that Giuliani’s campaign placed in the city’s largest circulation Yiddish newspaper, the Algemeiner Journal, also produced political flack.

“Let the People of New York Choose Their Own Destiny,” the ad proclaimed, showing pictures of Giuliani with President Bush and Dinkins with the Rev. Jesse Jackson. The result was additional criticism by some Jewish leaders that in a racially polarized city, Giuliani openly was seeking to play on Jewish fears.

Some political strategists said Giuliani needs to subtly raise fears of Dinkins without making voters indignant. But they agree it is a risky strategy, with great potential for backlash.

Miringoff believes Giuliani’s best strategy is to start sounding mayoral.

“David Dinkins has fashioned a very broad coalition of white voters, black voters, union members, many Jewish voters, liberals, moderates and many independent voters,” he said.

” . . . The best advice is to try to stop hitting (Dinkins) and to run Rudy Giuliani as mayor by saying what he wants to do.”

With his opponent in trouble, Dinkins has been running the careful campaign of the front-runner. He has shown little interest in debates with Giuliani. He has been working to broaden his coalition and has used surrogates to answer Giuliani’s attacks.

Marches Apart

In the parade Friday, Giuliani elected to march apart from the main body of politicians, stepping up 5th Avenue amid a group of police officers.

Along the line of march, there were some cheers for him. But there also were jeers from a small group of activists who held up unflattering Giuliani portraits. The activists accused him of not having a plan to cope with the city’s AIDS epidemic.

“Rudy for mayor, no way! Racist, sexist, anti-gay,” the protesters shouted.

Through the jeers and cheers, Giuliani kept smiling.