Noriega Foes Driven Into Hiding--and Silence : Failed Panama Coup Underscores Opposition’s Insignificant Political Role

Four months after its apparent electoral triumph was annulled, Panama’s civic opposition movement appeared Friday to have been driven into a passive and insignificant role by the new turmoil shaking military dictator Manuel A. Noriega.

Guillermo Endara, declared by international observers to be the winner over Noriega’s candidate in last May’s presidential election, took refuge in the Vatican Embassy after government agents evicted him from his party headquarters Thursday night. He remained in the embassy Friday, incommunicado.

Other opposition leaders who had appeared with Endara on Thursday to publicize his anti-government fast went into hiding after the raid, moving to avoid Gen. Noriega’s wrath over a bloody coup attempt Tuesday by junior military officers.

In doing so, the politicians admitted that they are unable to capitalize on anti-Noriega sentiment revealed within the government during the revolt or to channel it into a sustained mass popular uprising. Rather, they describe themselves as spectators.

‘Our Role Is to Wait’

“The crisis has yet to play itself out, and until it does our role is to wait,” said Guillermo Cochez, a leading Christian Democrat. “Our main obligation is to keep a low profile and not get arrested. To start a provocation in the streets right now would be a stupidity.”

Diplomats and politicians said Friday that Noriega is more concerned about disloyalty within his Panama Defense Forces and public ministries than with opposition parties.

The diplomats said that the opposition leaders’ current priority--lobbying outside the country for stronger international sanctions against Panama--is unlikely to succeed unless they can show that they pose a greater threat to the dictator.

Instead, events this week have underscored the opposition’s lack of nerve to overturn someone as determined as Noriega, the diplomats said.

At one point during Tuesday’s five-hour seizure of the general’s downtown headquarters, hundreds of opposition activists poured into the streets of the capital, thinking Noriega had fallen.

“It took one menacing soldier with an AK-47 rifle to send them running for their lives,” said a South American diplomat who watched scores of demonstrators scatter from a street near his embassy. “He didn’t even fire a shot.”

Two days later, when police surrounded Endara’s Authentic Liberal Party headquarters, no more than 100 activists answered a call to rally to his support.

“The people want change, but they are afraid,” said Alida Benedetti, a lawyer who was there. “Panamanians are very particular. They come out on the streets only when there are guarantees.”

But police intimidation was only part of the opposition’s problem this week. Another inhibition was its lack of any apparent connection or common cause with the rebel officers, who declared in a broadcast that they wanted a nationalistic, military-dominated government without Noriega at the top.

“It was them against them,” Benedetti said. “There was no call for democracy or to respect the May 7 election or human rights, so we stayed on the sidelines.”

The situation was far more volatile two years ago when denunciations of the dictator by his fired chief of staff, Col. Roberto Diaz Herrera, set off months of massive street demonstrations for Noriega’s resignation and free elections.

Noriega put down those protests with military force, sending many opposition leaders into exile. Noriega’s security apparatus had become so effective by March, 1988, that a coup attempt that month touched off only limited civilian pressure.

Despite their withering presence in the streets, the three major opposition parties--the Christian Democrats, Authentic Liberals and the Molinari movement--waged a successful campaign in this year’s election. According to a Roman Catholic estimate, the opposition won by a 3-to-1 margin.

But immediately after the vote count, the opposition went on the defensive. The election was annulled and Endara and one of his two running mates, Guillermo Ford, were severely beaten by paramilitary thugs.

“The people are capable of going to the polls and voting for this opposition, but they’re back to their quiet, cautious ways,” said a diplomat. “They have to keep their jobs.”

In recent weeks, opposition leaders have tried to regain the initiative with a campaign to cripple the national treasury by encouraging people to delay payments of taxes and utility bills and to boycott the national lottery.

Endara’s fast, begun 17 days ago, was aimed at publicizing the effort, dubbed “Not One Cent More.” Meanwhile, Ford met with British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and Pope John Paul II last week to lobby for support.

But with no access to the Panamanian news media, the effect of the campaign is limited. Ricardo Arias Calderon, Endara’s other running mate on the opposition ticket in May, was arrested last weekend while touring Panama to promote it.

One lottery ticket vendor estimated that sales have dropped 15% to 20% as a result of the boycott. But that is a small fraction of the more serious slump caused by Panama’s recession, which Noriega can blame in part on U.S. economic sanctions.

While such pressures have been aimed at provoking a coup against Noriega, opposition leaders said they were unprepared for the one attempted this week.

“Reality here has shown that all military actions take place entirely within the military,” Arias said. “They never give advance notice or ask for our support. I don’t think that will change.”

The leaders of Tuesday’s coup plot offered in their only communique to recognize Noriega’s appointed civilian government.

This provoked confusion and debate in the opposition ranks over whether a successful revolt would have served their interests.

“The failure of the coup has a silver lining,” said exiled Panamanian editor Robert Eisenmann in Miami. “It was plotted without any regard for the people. Had it been successful, the military would still be in charge, without the liability of Noriega.”

Arias disagreed, saying Noriega is a “bottleneck” that must be broken to achieve any chance of a civil-military agreement over the country’s future.

For now, he and other opposition leaders are asking Latin American presidents to withdraw recognition of Noriega’s regime. The first test will come when the so-called Group of Seven nations meets in Peru next month. The group includes Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Uruguay. Panama, one of the original members, was suspended from the group as a result of Noriega’s undemocratic actions.

One diplomat whose country will attend that meeting said the demand is unrealistic.

“Noriega’s power is an objective reality,” he said. “How much can we do to pressure him without violating Panama’s sovereignty? The problem of Panama is in the hands of the Panamanian people. If they don’t act first, how can we?”

After U.S. troops based here failed to intervene aggressively to support the coup, opposition leaders said they cannot count on Washington alone to oust Noriega.

“The United States is like a dog that barks very loudly and bites not at all,” Arias said. He added: “My deepest wish is to achieve democracy without any trauma to our national identity.”