Aquino Fritters Away a Powerful Hand : Prosperity Is Her Last Defense Against Pressures Right and Left

When Corazon Aquino took power three and a half years ago on the shoulders of the army, the students and a cause-oriented reformist class, she had a powerful hand of cards to play. She is left today with only one good suit--the economy--which may not be enough to save her beleaguered administration.

Although belittled as a “mere housewife” at the time of her victory, she had out-maneuvered Ferdinand Marcos through sheer tenacity. It was perhaps understandable that Philippine observers would watch for further miracles of political leadership, but that turned out to be her weakest suit. There is the sense of a complete political vacuum at Malacanang Palace these days, and the press writes daily of the possibility of a coup d’etat.

What went wrong? In some ways Aquino made the same mistake that Marcos made in the early 1970s in not using the dictatorial powers he gave himself under martial law to shake up the polity with real reform.

Aquino had a year and a half of decree-making power before the old electoral political system resumed, but used it to do little more than cleanse the system of Marcos’ people and his system of “crony capitalism.”

Aquino took the road of least resistance in allowing the old pre-Marcos crowd of oligarchs to come back to power through an electoral system they knew how to play. They were, after all, her people. Reformers in Manila never stood a chance, competing in the provinces against the professionals who had chafed for a decade and a half under Marcos and wanted the spoils of power again.

What has happened to land reform illustrates the problem. Marcos gave land reform a real chance in the 1970s, until it, too, got caught up in his corruption. In 1986, we were told that this time it would be for real--starting with the president’s own family hacienda. In the enthusiasm of the moment, the U.S. Congress tacked an additional $50 million onto its 1987 Philippine aid bill for land reform. But it was June, 1988, before a bill was passed in the Philippines and it will be 1990 before the first peso is transferred from that account.

Land reform got caught up in a landlord-dominated Congress that sought to slow it down and gut it of substance. Philippine Congresswoman Hortense Starke, for example, publicly urged fellow landlords to bribe journalists to print the “right” sort of story about the issue.

And the biggest landlords began importing high-powered weaponry to rebuild the private armies that Marcos had once done away with, to protect themselves against both the guerrilla New People’s Army and agents from Manila with notions of reform.

Small wonder then that the insurgency is still strong. Even without rear bases across borders and without charismatic leadership, the guerrilla army has regained the strength it had at its height in Marcos’ last years in office. True, the armed forces claim--credibly--that they have stalled its increase this year for the first time. So the rebels have partly transferred the battle to the city, with bombings and assassinations that are beginning to terrorize Manila.

Aquino’s popularity in recent polls is down to 35% from a high of more than double that. The little people--taxi drivers, for example--argue that her regime is no better than Marcos’ and just as corrupt. Even she for the first time is accused of corruption. When her younger brother, the powerful Congressman “Peping” Cohuangco, appeared to be implicated in a gun importing scheme last month, she publicly cleared him before the inquiry she initiated had even begun its examination of the scandal. To Filipinos, it looked all too familiar.

Elections are scheduled for 1992, and there are plenty of candidates. But the one with the highest popularity rating is the one keeping the lowest profile: Secretary of National Defense Gen. Fidel V. Ramos, a hero of the 1986 revolution. He and his staff are insistent on their subordination to civilian rule and they mean it.

But there are plenty of reform-oriented officers of the type who participated in an abortive 1987 coup attempt who wish to see the military take charge and clean the system up, with President Aquino left as figurehead.

If security continues to deteriorate at the present rate, the belief is that Ramos won’t have any choice, despite his denials of any interest in a coup.

Only the economy gives hope. Last year’s 6 1/2% real growth, continuing at almost that rate this year, is bringing signs of prosperity to the cities, but little of it is trickling down to the poor. Whether enough more growth will come in the next few years to enable the government to spread the gains around--if it has the will to do so--is the question that will determine Cory Aquino’s survival. It is her last winning hand.