U.S. Hopes Ouster Will Lead to Reform : East Germany: Erich Honecker’s resignation may lead to dramatic changes in what has been a repressive regime.

Bush Administration policy-makers said Wednesday that the generational change at the top of East Germany’s Communist Party could signal dramatic reform in what has been one of Eastern Europe’s most rigid and repressive regimes.

White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said Washington is ready for substantially better relations with East Berlin if the regime begins to respond to “the hopes and aspirations of its people.”

However, U.S. enthusiasm for the shift in East Germany was tempered by doubts that Egon Krenz, chosen to succeed the ousted Erich Honecker, is inclined by nature or experience to lead the country away from its Stalinist past.

“Mr. Krenz has been very much in accord with the policies of Honecker,” President Bush said at the start of a White House meeting with Republican congressional leaders. “Whether this step is a step toward more openness or not, I think it’s way too early to say, and there’s nothing in the record that would indicate that it is.”

Nevertheless, the President added: “There is dynamic change taking place in Eastern Europe and, it now appears, in (East Germany).”

In the recent past, East Germany has been far more resistant to change than either Poland or Hungary, and U.S. officials do not really expect the wave of reform from those two nations to blow through East Berlin to the same extent. But they believe that any concessions would be extremely significant because the country is such infertile ground.

Reading from a prepared statement, Fitzwater said: “The United States is prepared . . . to develop stronger and more constructive relations with (East Germany). It is up to the new leadership there to demonstrate through its deeds that it is ready to move in that direction.”

Although Fitzwater did not spell out the sort of deeds Washington is looking for, other officials said the United States will respond positively if the regime relaxes its grip on political activity, liberalizes its emigration policies and ends police repression.

The U.S. response is expected to strike a careful balance with any reforms, possibly starting with increased academic exchanges and advancing to more liberal trade if East Germany shows evidence of significant change.

The optimism in Washington over the Krenz-Honecker reshuffle is based primarily on a belief that Krenz ultimately will decide that the only way to preserve Communist control is to ease the regime’s repressive policies.

In this view, Krenz first would wait to see if the increasingly restive population is satisfied with the change in personnel. If it is not, the party leader would change policy reluctantly.

No one in the Administration believes Krenz will prove to be a German copy of Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, a leader now viewed in the West as a genuine reformer. But some officials hope that Krenz will come to resemble former Soviet President Yuri V. Andropov, an unbending Communist who nevertheless tried to alter policies that had become outmoded and ineffective.

Former Deputy CIA Director George Carver endorsed the comparison with Andropov, but he said that there is no reason to be encouraged by it.

“Andropov’s reform was designed to make the system more efficient,” Carver said. “Under Andropov there was no reduction in repression of dissidents. It is very likely that Krenz is in the mold of Andropov.

“Krenz is no closet liberal,” Carver added. “He is basically a younger, more efficient, healthier version of Erich Honecker. He may realize that they have to open up a few safety valves. He may be more astute.”

Helmut Sonnenfeldt, a former State Department and National Security Council expert on Eastern Europe, said Krenz has a “well-deserved reputation as a hard-liner.”

However, he said, the change is significant “because Honecker is a symbol of ‘stand-patism’ and rigidity. This guy doesn’t yet embody that.”

Krenz has long been considered Honecker’s heir apparent. But he was not the only possible candidate for the top job.

Administration officials believe it is significant that Krenz, 52, is the youngest member of the Politburo. They believe that he can--if he chooses--show a flexibility that would be difficult for older leaders.

For the time being, the Administration plans no major changes in its policy toward East Germany. It will continue to urge reform in its public statements, but it will wait until the character of the new regime becomes clearer before deciding on concrete action.

Fitzwater’s statement illustrated the Administration’s policy.

“The change of leadership in the German Democratic Republic (the formal name for East Germany) was obviously a response to the mass exodus of tens of thousands of Germans in the German Democratic Republic who have sought freedom and a better life in the West, as well as to rising pressures within the GDR for reform and democratic change,” Fitzwater said.

He said that the United States hopes the change “signals movement by the GDR leadership toward reforms that respond to the hopes and aspirations of its people, who have clearly demonstrated their commitment to peaceful democratic change.”

Fitzwater said Bush has no plans at this time to contact Krenz.

Times staff writer James Gerstenzang contributed to this story.