More Symbolism Than Substance

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s decision to renew all-out warfare against the Contra rebels would be disastrous if it were not more symbolism than substance.

The sad truth is that the war never completely ended, even after the Contras and the Sandinistas agreed to a cease-fire in early 1988 and started short-lived peace talks. When five Central American presidents signed their own peace agreement earlier this year and called upon the Contras to disarm, many rebel commanders ignored them. About 10,000 Contras remain in their Honduran base camps, but more than 1,000 went back into Nicaragua to fight on as genuine guerrillas, living off the land.

In recent weeks, with preparations for Nicaragua’s general election next February getting most of the world’s attention, the Contra bands have intensified their attacks. They have ambushed troop convoys, shot up rural towns and farm cooperatives and killed 44 people in the last 10 days, according to government sources. All told, more than 700 people have been killed in Contra attacks in the 19-months’ cease-fire period. So Ortega’s announcement only ended the fiction that a truce was in effect.

But that does not mean Ortega’s announcement will have no impact. It will help him draw a line, declare his political opponents to be on the wrong side and attack them as pro-Contra, pro- Yanqui and disloyal to Nicaragua. It is an appeal to nationalism and Sandinista loyalists that may deflect attention from a devastated economy and Sandinista mismanagement of the government.

Fortunately, the White House seems to understand that this would not be a good time for President Bush to react by renewing military aid to the Contras. That would play into Ortega’s hands without much effect on the battlefield, since most of the guerrilla units in Nicaragua are beyond the control of Contra leaders. Resuming military aid also would dilute the moral authority of U.S. government criticism of Ortega.

With so many Contras out of control, what Bush must do is work with U.S. allies in Latin America to see that the Nicaraguan elections are held on schedule. It might even strengthen his hand if he called for demobilization of the Contras who have stayed in Honduras and added to the humanitarian aid money that is already on its way to them. By taking that simple step, Bush could show that he really believes that democratic voting, rather than murder and sabotage, is the best way to oust an unpopular government.