Reject the Noriega Ouster Plan

It makes sense for the U.S. government to try to be better prepared than it was last time for another coup attempt against Gen. Manuel Noriega of Panama. But the Bush Administration is reported to have moved beyond preparing for a coup to encouraging one. That is a serious mistake.

Times Washington correspondent Robin Wright reported Thursday that the Administration, with Congress’ approval, has authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to launch a new covert attempt to oust Noriega. CIA operatives could spend up to $3 million, and presumably more if need be, to recruit dissident Panamanian military officers and other opponents of Noriega to mount another coup attempt like the one that failed Oct. 3. This time the coup would be “an unimpeded effort,” meaning it would go forward even if it ran the risk of the death of Noriega and other people.

This strategy grew out of the frustration most of official Washington feels over Noriega’s persistence in power despite two years of U.S. diplomatic and economic pressure against his government. That frustration was exacerbated by October’s failed coup, which caught U.S. officials by surprise. Plenty of second-guessing followed that mess, so President Bush ordered a review of how the CIA, State Department and other agencies handled it. The review panel concluded, correctly, that Noriega was badly weakened by the coup attempt and is “on the ropes.” But it went beyond that point to argue that the United States is now compelled to encourage another attempt to overthrow Noriega.

That conclusion is a triumph of folly over logic. Perhaps the members of the review panel were overly focused on issues of intelligence-gathering and covert action to note how effective other strategies, like financial pressure, have been in weakening Noriega. Obviously they did not stop to think how Latin American allies of the United States, who have cooperated with the campaign to isolate Noriega diplomatically, would react to U.S. covert action in Panama. It would revive hated memories of U.S. intervention in the region and set back U.S.-Latin American relations at a time when there are many more important issues to be dealt with than one small-time dictator.

That Noriega must go is clear. The United States must play a pivotal role in that process because previous Administrations helped create the monster. But he is on his way out, albeit not as quickly or dramatically as many would like. President Bush must stick to that steady strategy in dealing with Noriega, and not compound past mistakes by creating new ones.