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Big Rebound for Consumer Spending Rate : Economy: Other government figures indicate mixed results as the year comes to a close.

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From Times Wire Services

Consumer spending jumped 0.7% in November from its sharp fall a month earlier and cautious companies are trimming back their investment plans for 1990, the government said Thursday in reports that indicate a mixed economy at year’s end.

“It suggests that while we have some weak areas in the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector, that the consumer has not turned off completely,” said David Jones, an economist with Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. in New York.

The Commerce Department also reported an 0.8% increase in personal incomes in November, but some analysts questioned whether income growth will soon begin to weaken and thus cause a decline in spending.

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The report said consumer spending rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate to $3.54 trillion, a 0.7% increase and the steepest gain since a 1% jump in April.

The advance was a rebound from a 0.2% decline in October, which was the first decrease since a 0.1% dip in September, 1988, and the largest drop since a 1.4% fall in January, 1987.

Consumer spending, which has been a major factor in economic growth during the first nine months of the year, is watched closely as a barometer of economic health because it accounts for about two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity.

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Jones said prospects are good for continued consumer spending, “particularly in non-durables such as apparel, and in the services area . . . because consumers are still basically optimistic and have income growth to support that optimism.”

Personal incomes in November totaled $4.54 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, following a similar 0.8% gain to $4.50 trillion in October. It was the largest increase since a 1% gain in March.

But Lawrence Chimerine, senior economic adviser for the WEFA Group, a Bala-Cynwyd, Pa., forecasting group, said there were a number of factors that could lead to decreased spending.

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“The negatives are the high debt loads,” he said. “People now are getting more concerned about the future. You’re seeing more layoffs and, particularly for durables, the pent-up demand we had in the earlier ‘80s has just been used up. People just don’t have the same needs.”

The $26.2-billion increase in personal consumption, which includes everything except interest payments on debt, contrasted with a $6.3-billion decrease in October.

Purchases of durable goods--big-ticket items expected to last more than three years--rose $1.9 billion, while purchases of non-durable goods jumped $12.4 billion. Spending on services increased $11.9 billion.

The November report showed that Americans’ incomes after taxes rose 0.9%, up from October’s 0.8% gain.

Americans’ savings rate--savings as a percent of disposable income--rose to 6.1%, up from October’s 5.7% rate.

Separately, the department said a survey of businesses conducted in October and November showed they expect to invest 4.9% more for capital improvements in 1990 after spending 8.5% more this year.

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That would mean spending an inflation-adjusted $490.14 billion on plant and equipment next year compared to a revised $467.15 billion in 1989.

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