The Best of Times, the Worst of Times : Europe: There are parallels to be drawn between 1989 and 1789--and warning signs to watch for in the days ahead.

What has transpired in Eastern Europe in 1989 is a veritable political revolution sweeping away a discredited and dissolute ancien regime and catapulting to power a group of reformist leaders with minimal political experience and nebulous social programs.

It is indeed ironic that this historic upheaval erupted during the bicentennial year of the outbreak of the French Revolution. Perhaps there are parallels--and even lessons--to be drawn from the momentous events of 1789.

First, both revolutions were initiated from above. Louis XVI’s convening of the Estates-General to deal with France’s catastrophic fiscal crisis represented a serious effort at controlled structural change by leaders of the old order. Mikhail Gorbachev’s imposition of perestroika throughout Eastern Europe reflects similar motives.

On both occasions, these efforts were veiled attempts to preserve the political elite. But these clumsy strategems failed abysmally when the established regimes transferred part of their political legitimacy to articulate dissidents representing vast (and at first, peaceful) popular protest movements.

The dissident leaders agreed to a power-sharing arrangement that was quickly undermined by the bungling and subterfuges of the old order and by public outrage at the privileges and excesses of the much-resented rulers. Under these conditions, the dissident leaders and institutions took upon themselves the right to speak with the authority of the entire nation.

In each of these historic moments, the fall of a tangible symbol of oppression marked the political collapse of the hated elite. In 1789, it was the Bastille; in 1989, the Berlin Wall. These two structures embodied the forces of political coercion and the denial of basic human rights that had characterized the old order.

To replace the latter system, dissident leaders promulgated legal documents abolishing undeserved privileges, defining the rights of the individual with respect to the state and establishing a governmental structure responsive to the idea of true popular sovereignty.

By August, 1789, the political revolution in France had been achieved. What remained was to rectify the social and economic injustices that ran contrary to the revolutionary ideals of liberty and equality.

This task proved much more difficult to accomplish. In Eastern Europe today, reformers are only beginning to grope through the immense social and economic miasma that they have inherited.

The failure of the French Revolution derived from the inability of the revolutionaries to implement an equitable program of social reform and to conciliate regional differences (as in the Vendee uprising). The new Eastern European leaders confront a complicated balancing act in transforming the social structures of their countries and in mollifying ethnic or regional distinctions.

While historical analogies can be taken only so far, the experience of France in 1789 can serve as a guide--and a warning--of dangers to come in Eastern Europe:

--The construction of a new social and economic order is more perilous than the dissolution of the ancien regime. The inflated expectations of long-oppressed peoples will make a protracted “transition” period intolerable. Change will come rapidly and, in many instances, uncontrollably.

--Direct interference of outside powers will further radicalize the situation. Both the Soviet Union and the Western powers cannot expect to manage events and will have to operate with extreme prudence and finesse.

--The inherently unstable nature of revolutionary change may generate internal demands for a strongman, a Bonaparte. The modern history of Poland and Hungary reveals an unfortunate tendency toward military intervention in the political process.

--The most enduring legacy of the French Revolution is the mixed blessing of nationalism. In Eastern Europe, however, the national organizing principle has often conflicted with ethnic identities or else degenerated into irredentist claims on neighboring territory.

Whatever happens, the revolutionary euphoria of 1989--like that of 1789--is bound to dissipate. People in Eastern Europe will inevitably grow disappointed and frustrated with the perceived pace of change and the material sacrifices required of them. These discontents could well develop into patterns of violence, much like the Reign of Terror that emerged from the French Revolution.

Historical precedents can serve as very imprecise indicators of future events. Revolutions are messy affairs, both unpredictable and destabilizing. The French Revolution of 1789 changed the course of European history through the very magnitude of its political and social upheaval. Two centuries later, the peoples of Eastern Europe discover themselves at a similar momentous turning point. The real transformation of Eastern Europe has only just begun.