Inflation Rate to Settle at 4% in 1990, S&P; Says : Economy: Prices for automobiles, food and clothing are expected to remain flat. Gas heating, insurance and health-care costs could rise.

The inflation rate for 1990 is likely to remain in the 4% range after an initial surge early in the year, Standard & Poor’s Corp. said Friday.

“The December cold wave will leave us with a January hangover of higher prices for heating oil, other energy, and fresh fruits and vegetables,” the financial services company said in its semiannual consumer price forecast.

“Prices will return to their recent 4% track. By late in the year, the soft economy should push consumer price inflation even below that figure.”

S&P; warned that the inflation trend, however moderate, will raise concern at the Federal Reserve.

“Even with a soft economy, the Fed will continue to watch the inflation measures very carefully,” the report said, stressing that the Fed has failed to bring the inflation rate close to the zero level during the past seven years of economic growth.

Cars and air fares are the indicators that will contribute the most toward keeping the inflation rate down, S&P; said.

“Domestic automobile prices will remain flat or decline in 1990. . . . Slackening consumer demand will cause prices on many 1990 models to drop,” Joshua Harari, S&P; auto analyst said.

“Airlines will not be successful in raising their fares more than 1% to 2% in 1990, and Eastern Airlines may continue to offer discounts in an effort to rebuild its traffic to prestrike levels,” predicted Thomas Canning, S&P; airline analyst.

S&P; analysts also expected prices for clothes and food items to remain under control.

“Stable raw material, a flood of imports and a sluggish overall consumer market” will keep clothing prices at least at a stable level or possibly drive them lower, the report said. Food prices are projected to increase by 4% next year, down from 6% in 1989, with only luxury items and tomato products--suddenly in high demand--likely to go up.

“An oversupply of restaurants--more than 80,000 franchise chain outlets in the United States--will also keep the price of eating out in check,” the report said.

Major items expected to increase in price are gas heating, insurance rates and health-care costs, the report said.

“Consumers should be prepared to shell out 8% to 9% for natural gas home fuel costs next year,” the report warned, adding some good news for electricity consumers who should see only a small 2% rate hike.

But oil industry analyst Edward Graves predicted that drivers would get a break as gasoline prices drop following a softening in crude oil prices “in early 1990 from their current $21 a barrel to $19 a barrel.”

Graves predicted that overproduction by the 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would drive prices down, with the cartel’s output remaining at 23.5 million barrels a day, for a stagnant demand of 21 million barrels a day.

Medical bills should increase by more than twice the projected rate of inflation, in the double-digit range, reflecting expensive drugs, and cuts in Medicare and Medicaid programs, the report said.

The soaring health-care costs will be matched only by property and casualty premium hikes, in the 10% to 12% range, with insurers likely to work their way around legislation aimed at capping the rates.