Outlook for the ‘90s : ...
Those hoping for the 1990s to bring a slowing of the increasing Japanese presence in the global high-technology industry are likely to be quite disappointed.
Japanese industrial giants asserted themselves in the 1980s in markets ranging from supercomputers to their key ingredients, computer memory chips. And in the coming decade, analysts and industry leaders are girding themselves for more of the same.
Many believe that the effects will be seen most intensely in the personal computer industry, where the Japanese have not yet made a strong showing. The decade-ending trends in the PC industry toward miniaturization and consumer electronics-style packaging and marketing play to the strengths of the Japanese.
In addition, as computer technology is increasingly linked to video technology to produce “multimedia” presentations, the importance of imaging and optical technologies is expected to dramatically increase. Japanese companies have solid research leads in those technologies.
Improved television, whether high-definition versions just emerging now in Japan or computer-enhanced definition, is expected to catch on here in the 1990s. The big issue to be resolved is how the new technology will be delivered in the United States and whether the products will come from domestic manufacturers or Japanese companies, who today make a majority of the TV sets sold in the United States.
However, U.S. technology companies are expected to retain their lead in some areas. One is the development of software that instructs computers how to operate. Emerging trends in this arena include computers that fully recognize speech, handwriting and physical gestures, such as pointing and waving. Products offering these features are expected in the coming decade.
Further, as computer users increasingly want to “talk” to other users and their databases, their machines, particularly portable models, will come equipped with cellular-style communication devices. Traditionally, this is a market in which U.S. companies have done well, and already there are prototypes and early production models in U.S. research labs.
