Noriega Talks May Be Near Solution : Panama: A U.S. official says the ex-strongman’s options are narrowing to just one--the United States. The Vatican is seen as unlikely to grant him asylum.

The Bush Administration indicated Tuesday that the complex negotiations over the fate of deposed Panamanian strongman Manuel A. Noriega might be heading toward a resolution that would place Noriega in U.S. hands.

“It’s coming down to the end game,” a State Department official said. “It’s looking more and more and more like Noriega’s choices are being narrowed down to one.”

The increased optimism about a deal to end Noriega’s stay at the Vatican embassy in Panama City is the result of “an inexorably slow process that has led all parties to realize that the only viable scenario is for him to be released to the U.S.,” the official said, adding: “The only issue is the mechanism by which it happens.”

Administration sources, however, cautioned against expecting any significant developments within 24 to 48 hours as representatives of the United States, Panama and the Vatican entered a final, delicate stage of negotiations.

Even so, the State Department official said, it appears likely that the Vatican will conclude that Noriega does not qualify for diplomatic or political asylum.

“And nobody else wants him,” the official said. “No third country wants him. The Panamanian government is not really equipped to try him. And he can’t stay in the Vatican mission. . . . So what it comes down to is that the only realistic solution is for him to be released to the U.S.”

Meanwhile, U.S. officials are investigating allegations that Noriega received a tip-off about the U.S. invasion that helped him elude American forces for more than four days before seeking asylum in the Vatican embassy on Christmas Eve.

An American businessman is under suspicion of using a State Department connection to learn of the U.S. invasion plans, which he relayed by telephone to Noriega through one of the dictator’s top military aides, according to Pentagon sources.

Tne source identified the military aide as Col. Luis del Cid, Noriega’s former right-hand man who now is in the United States facing drug charges. The businessman was not identified.

Noriega was tracked by the United States to seven locations on Monday, Dec. 18, less than 48 hours before the invasion, Bush Administration sources said. But his movements were not known with certainty just before the invasion.

“From what we know now, he may have had one or two hours’ notice, but not a day or two,” said an Administration official familiar with the allegations.

The tip-off call reportedly was intercepted by U.S. electronic surveillance.

Getting the former Panamanian leader to leave his refuge in the papal nunciature, without the Vatican actually expelling him, could be a major problem.

“Noriega is going to have to come to the conclusion that he has to leave,” the State Department official said. “It’s a wearing-down process. I suspect the first we’ll know that it has worked is when we hear about it on CNN (Cable News Network) when he walks out the door.”

Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence S. Eagleburger’s departure for Panama on Tuesday added to the air of expectation.

Eagleburger’s mission was to focus on U.S. economic aid to the new government of President Guillermo Endara and on U.S.-Panamanian trade relations. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said that there are no plans for Eagleburger to involve himself directly in the discussions on Noriega’s fate. However, Boucher added, “I don’t like to rule anything out.”

Eagleburger has been one of two State Department officials leading behind-the-scenes negotiations on Noriega’s fate.

Another obstacle to a resolution of the Noriega problem has been whether Panama or the United States would take custody of him.

Endara said over the weekend that he hopes the Vatican would not turn Noriega over to Panama because it has no judiciary to try him. At the same time, however, Panama’s new attorney general announced plans to indict Noriega for murder.

On Tuesday, State Department sources described the framework of a compromise that might allow both the United States and Panama to try Noriega.

The Endara government could allow the United States to try Noriega, Administration sources said, then ask for him to be turned over to Panama--either after he has been sentenced by an American court or after he has served a prison term.

In a related development, President Bush appointed veteran U.S. diplomat Deane Hinton on Tuesday to be ambassador to Panama.

Times staff writers Richard Boudreaux and Kenneth Freed, in Panama, contributed to this story.