Middle East and Domino Theory

Funny thing about the domino theory. It never worked as advertised when what was feared was the loss of Third-World countries to communism. But now that communism itself is being routed in Eastern Europe, the domino theory appears to be working like gangbusters.

It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the rush toward democracy under way in the East Bloc will now extend beyond the borders of Europe, overtaking, perhaps, the Middle East. In that region, otherwise inexorable momentums have an odd way of running aground. This is not to say that the region isn’t due for greater democratization.

But with thousands of battle-hardened Iraqi troops still in uniform and squaring off, this time against Syria in Lebanon; with Syrian and Palestinian and Christian forces themselves poised at each other’s jugular for a new round of fighting; with Muslim fundamentalism endangering the moderate regimes of Egypt and Jordan, and with the mainstay of the Arab world still determined not to accept a secure Jewish state in the vicinity, a Middle Eastern version of what the Czechs are calling the “Velvet Revolution” is hardly in the offing.

And as the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are discovering after two fruitless years of violence, the walls of Jericho are made of sterner stuff than their counterpart in Berlin.

The Palestinians have not yet grasped what the Czechs realized instinctively--that peaceful means and reasonable intentions can render the most dramatic results.

In Czechoslovakia, as elsewhere in East Europe, the struggle for democracy was waged at the grass-roots level.

In the West Bank and Gaza, unfortunately, the opposite has occurred. At the grass-roots level, the Palestinians have demonstrated an unyielding addiction to violence while refusing to embrace the path of peaceful negotiation Israel has traditionally indicated it would respond to.

ILAN MOR

Consul for Press & Information

Israeli Consulate

Los Angeles