ANALYSIS : Westside Proving Tough for GOP to Crack : Politics: The new decade will bring reapportionment. But experts say it’s unlikely that even a redrawing of political boundaries will topple the Democrats.

Welcome to 1990, the year of the incumbent.

The calendar shows an election this year for state and federal offices, but on the Westside this has not set pulses racing.

The area’s representatives in Congress and the Legislature, Democrats all, are assured of reelection in their carefully crafted, politically safe districts. About all each one needs to do is keep breathing and avoid a major scandal.

It’s a one-party system.

But the coming of a new decade will also bring reapportionment, the constitutionally mandated, slightly unseemly process of redrawing political boundaries to adjust for population changes.

Reapportionment can strike terror in a politician’s heart. Job security is at stake. Power can be won or lost by a simple shift in a district boundary.

Might the redistricting of the 1990s resurrect the two-party system in at least parts of the Westside? Not very likely, say the experts.

“The Westside is to the Democratic Party what Orange County is to the Republican Party,” says Allan Hoffenblum, a veteran GOP political consultant. The area, he says, “will always be heavily Democratic, barring some extraordinary circumstance.”

Much of the Westside is heavily white, Democratic and liberal, with the largest concentration of Jewish voters outside of New York. In many neighborhoods, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2 to 1.

UC Berkeley political scientist Bruce Cain, who has written extensively about redistricting, says the Westside is all but impossible for Republicans to crack, no matter how the lines are drawn. There just aren’t enough Republicans.

“There is no way you are going to take the area south of the Ventura Freeway, the really Jewish areas of the Westside--take Santa Monica, Venice, areas around Beverly Hills--no way you’re going to transform these into competitive areas,” he said.

Michael Berman, a top Democratic political strategist, reapportionment expert and brother of Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Panorama City), says simply: “West Los Angeles is solidly Democratic turf.”

The Westside serves as the political base for the powerful Democratic campaign organization headed by Reps. Berman and Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles). Altogether, five Democratic congressman share a piece of this choice political real estate.

But adjoining areas have a different political makeup.

Los Angeles is sharply divided politically, socially and economically. There is Democratic territory, Republican territory and occasional patches of competitive ground where the loyalty of voters is up for grabs.

Republicans dominate the upper-income communities that hug the coast from Pacific Palisades to Malibu and Manhattan Beach to Palos Verdes.

The northwestern and northeastern reaches of the San Fernando Valley also are increasingly GOP territory.

Mix together Westside Democratic strongholds and suburban Republican precincts in the same district and the chance for political competition increases, particularly if there is an open seat.

One potentially competitive district is that of Rep. Mel Levine (D-Santa Monica). His 27th Congressional District stretches from the edge of Topanga Canyon through Santa Monica, West Los Angeles, Mar Vista, Venice, Marina del Rey and Playa del Rey before jutting inland to reach black Democratic voters in Inglewood. The district line then heads south into the more Republican and conservative South Bay beach cities and Torrance. A finger reaches all the way down to Terminal Island. The district is 54% Democratic in registration.

Another district that might someday be a battleground lies to the north and east of Levine’s territory. The 23rd Congressional District of Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson (D-Los Angeles) includes Westwood, Beverly Hills, Century City, Brentwood, Bel-Air and Malibu, as well as the San Fernando Valley communities of Reseda, Tarzana, Woodland Hills, Canoga Park and Encino. Democrats make up 53% of the registered voters.

Rapid population growth in outlying areas of the state during the 1980s may force the boundary lines of the Levine and Beilenson districts to stretch farther from the solidly Democratic precincts of the Westside into more risky Republican territory.

“It’s possible a redistricting could make one or possibly two of these people uncomfortable,” Cain said.

If Levine, who is regarded as a potential challenger to U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston in 1992, vacates his seat, the district would be competitive, Cain said.

Beilenson’s district, likewise, “under the right circumstances, could be won by a Republican,” adds Hoffenblum.

But as long as Beilenson and Levine stay put, change is unlikely because of the built-in advantages they have over challengers in fund raising, staffing and the ability to attract media attention and to communicate with voters. “Incumbency is the most powerful force in America right now,” Cain said.

Nothing stirs an incumbent politician’s instinct for self-preservation more than reapportionment. Once every 10 years, after the new census is completed, the boundary lines for every Assembly, Senate and congressional district must be redrawn by the state Legislature.

The process offers a unique twist to the political adage: “To the victor goes the spoils” because lawmakers effectively determine their own political destinies by the lines that are drawn.

In 1812, when Massachusetts Gov. Elbridge Gerry approved a blatantly partisan redistricting plan complete with a salamander-shaped district, critics dubbed it a gerrymander. The label stuck.

“There has always been gerrymandering and always will be gerrymandering as long as the people who run are drawing the lines,” Hoffenblum said.

In an effort to change that equation, half a dozen initiatives are being circulated to overhaul the way legislative and congressional districts are drawn in California.

Two of those initiatives may qualify for the June ballot. One, sponsored by San Mateo County Supervisor Tom Huening, a Republican, and backed by the League of Women Voters, would create a 12-member reapportionment commission composed of five Democrats, five Republicans and two independents.

Another proposal, by Marin County businessman Gary Flynn, would require a two-thirds vote by the Legislature and majority approval by the voters before reapportionment plans could be adopted.

The initiatives are a wild card in the redistricting process. So is the governor’s race.

To the dismay of Republicans, in the early 1980s Democrats controlled the reapportionment process in California. With majorities in both houses of the Legislature and with Edmund G. Brown Jr. in the governor’s office, Democrats drew lines that enhanced their own political power, particularly in Congress. Although Democrats statewide account for barely half of the registered voters, they hold 60% of the state’s congressional seats--27 out of 45.

In the 1990s, the stakes are high once again.

California’s population grew by at least 5.4 million people in the 1980s--a number greater than the overall population of most states. Much of the huge 22.8% population growth occurred in outlying areas of Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange and San Diego counties, and in the Central Valley.

The surge in population is expected to bring six or seven additional congressional seats for California, boosting the state’s delegation to 51 or 52 members. It will be the largest House contingent of any state in the nation’s history.

The increase in congressional seats will mean an identical growth in electoral votes, potentially giving California one-fifth of the total electoral votes needed to capture the presidency.

Tony Quinn, a Republican reapportionment expert now working for a public relations firm in Sacramento, said there could be a deadlock on new district boundaries if the Republicans hold on to the governor’s office. In that case, the state Supreme Court could be called upon to draw the lines as they did in the 1970s.

But Quinn said it is possible there is going to be “a bipartisan deal that protects virtually all incumbents in the Legislature and the congressional delegation” no matter who is governor. He said the inclination in the state Capitol is “to try to settle it without a whole lot of blood.”

Given the nature of recent population growth, Quinn expects little change in Assembly and Senate districts in Los Angeles County. “That delegation hasn’t changed much in many years,” he noted.

Cain offered a similar sentiment. The reality of incumbents drawing the lines should discourage creation of competitive seats, he said. “I don’t look for any radical shake-up of representation.”

Here is a list of incumbent Westside lawmakers up for reelection this year:

CONGRESS

Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson (D-Los Angeles). Elected to seventh term in 1988 with 63.5% of the vote. His 23rd Congressional District includes Malibu, Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Westwood, Bel-Air, Century City, Beverly Hills and the Palms area, plus the northwestern part of the San Fernando Valley.

Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles). Elected to eighth term in 1988 with 72.3% of the vote. His 24th Congressional District includes the Fairfax District, the Hollywood area, the edge of downtown Los Angeles, Griffith Park and North Hollywood.

Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Panorama City). Elected to fourth term in 1988 with 70.3% of the vote. His 26th Congressional District lies mostly in the San Fernando Valley but includes the hills above Hollywood, Bel-Air and Beverly Hills.

Rep. Mel Levine (D-Santa Monica). Elected to fourth term in 1988 with 67.6% of the vote. His 27th Congressional District includes Santa Monica, part of West Los Angeles, Mar Vista, Venice, Marina del Rey, Playa del Rey, part of Inglewood, El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, Lawndale, part of Torrance and the Los Angeles Harbor area.

Rep. Julian C. Dixon (D-Los Angeles). Elected to a sixth term in 1988 with 76.1% of the vote. His 28th Congressional District includes Culver City, Westchester, Lennox, Baldwin Hills and parts of South-Central Los Angeles.

ASSEMBLY

Assemblyman Terry B. Friedman (D-Los Angeles). Elected to second term in 1988 with 61.6% of the vote. His 43rd Assembly District includes Bel-Air, Brentwood, Westwood, Beverly Hills and parts of the San Fernando Valley.

Assemblyman Tom Hayden (D-West Los Angeles). Elected to fourth term in 1988 with 61.1% of the vote. His 44th Assembly District includes Malibu, Pacific Palisades, Santa Monica, Venice, Mar Vista, West Los Angeles and Century City.

Assemblyman Burt Margolin (D-Los Angeles). Elected to fifth term in 1988 with 68.8% of the vote. His 45th Assembly District includes Hollywood, West Hollywood, Hancock Park, Universal City, North Hollywood and part of Burbank.

Assemblyman Mike Roos (D-Los Angeles). Elected to sixth term in 1988 with 67.6% of the vote. His 46th Assembly District includes the mid-Wilshire area, downtown Los Angeles, Silver Lake and Griffith Park.

Assemblywoman Gwen Moore (D-Los Angeles). Elected to sixth term in 1988 with 76.7% of the vote. Her 49th Assembly District includes Marina del Rey, Playa del Rey, Westchester, Culver City, Ladera Heights, Baldwin Hills and the Crenshaw area.

SENATE

Sen. Herschel Rosenthal (D-Los Angeles). Elected to second term in 1986 with 69% of the vote. His 22nd Senate District includes Pacific Palisades, Santa Monica, Brentwood, Bel-Air, Westwood, West Los Angeles, Century City, Beverly Hills, Mar Vista, the Palms area and part of Culver City.

Sen. Diane E. Watson (D-Los Angeles). Elected to third term in 1986 with 79% of the vote. Her 28th Senate district includes Marina del Rey, Playa del Rey, Westchester, part of Culver City, Inglewood, Hawthorne, Lawndale and part of South-Central Los Angeles.

Sen. Gary K. Hart (D-Santa Barbara). Elected to second term in 1986 with 65% of the vote. His 18th Senate District runs from the Malibu area north along the coast to Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.

THE WESTSIDE: A DEMOCRATIC STRONGHOLD Here is a list of the congressional, state Assembly and state Senate districts on the Westside. Note that many or most of them include territory that is outside our area. All incumbents are up for reelection except state Sen. David A. Roberti. ASSEMBLY 43rd District--Terry B. Friedman, D-Los Angeles. 44th District-Tom Hayden, D-Los Angeles. 45th District-Burt Margolin, D-Los Angeles. 46th District-Mike Roos, D-Los Angeles. 49th District-Gwen More, D-Los Angeles. STATE SENATE 18th District-Gary K. Hart, D-Santa Barbara. 22nd District-Herschel Rosenthal, D-Los Angeles. 23rd District-David A. Roberti, D-Los Angeles. 28th District-Diane E. Watson, D-Los Angeles. CONGRESS 23rd District-Anthony C. Beilenson, D-Los Angeles. 24th District-Henry A. Waxman, D-Los Angeles. 26th District-Howard Berman, D-Panorama City 27th District-Mel Levine, D-Santa Monica. 28th District-Julian C. Dixon, D-Los Angeles.