Kohl Opposition Wins in Saarland : West Germany: The election outcome makes state Premier Lafontaine a likely candidate for chancellor.

The Social Democratic Party, West Germany’s principal national opposition party, won a strong victory in Saarland state elections Sunday, virtually ensuring that state Premier Oskar Lafontaine will be the party’s candidate for federal chancellor.

The national elections are scheduled later this year.

With Lafontaine heading the ticket, the Social Democrats retained their majority in the Saarland state legislature.

Television projections gave the Social Democrat’s 54.3% of the vote, far ahead of the 33.4% polled by the Christian Democratic Union of federal Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Kohl’s environment minister, Klaus Toepfer, had conducted a lackluster campaign as head of the Christian Democratic list for the legislature.

The Social Democratic showing in West Germany’s smallest state, a coal- and steel-producing region that lies along the frontier with France, was stronger Sunday than in similar elections five years ago, while that of the Christian Democrats was weaker.

The Free Democratic Party, the smallest member of Kohl’s national governing coalition, barely achieved the minimum share of the vote required for representation in the Saarland legislature, polling 5.3%. Neither the far-right Republicans, with 3.4%, nor the environment-oriented Greens, with 2.5%, qualified for seats because their tallies fell below 5%.

After the vote, Lafontaine, 46, ducked the question of his candidacy for federal chancellor, declaring: “I am very happy about this result. I’m surprised how high it was, but all these other questions are for later.”

Most political analysts seem certain that Lafontaine will be his party’s choice to run against Kohl in light of the Social Democrats’ impressive showing Sunday.

Lafontaine described his victory a “good start for the elections in East Germany,” scheduled for later this year, and said he will be campaigning on behalf of the East’s fledging Social Democratic Party.

Since being elected Saarland premier in 1985, Lafontaine has played an increasingly important role on the national scene. Experts see him giving Kohl a tough and possibly close fight in December’s national election.

Lafontaine has espoused two controversial but popular causes: German reunification and its corollary, keeping East Germans in place by making it less appealing for them to migrate to West Germany. Lafontaine has sharply criticized Kohl’s policy of welcoming all East Germans heading westward with generous social welfare benefits.

Born of a family in straitened circumstances--his baker father was killed in World War II--Lafontaine won scholarships for study at Bonn and Saarbrucken universities. He joined the Social Democrats as a student and has been active in the party ever since.

He is outspoken, even brash and impulsive, and has often taken positions at odds with party policy--but which have turned out to be good vote-getters. He has advocated abandoning outmoded trade-union practices in the interests of allowing new and profitable industries to flourish.

He is opposed to the stationing of nuclear weapons in West Germany, a stand that is increasingly popular as the threat of Soviet attack sharply diminishes.

Lafontaine opposes allowing East Germans to migrate to the West unless they have guaranteed jobs and housing before they travel--a departure from Kohl’s policies.

And unlike Kohl, who wants East Germany’s regime to undertake major reforms as a condition of getting financial help from Bonn, Lafontaine believes West German funds should be offered immediately to encourage East Germans to stay where they are.

In a nation of somber, unexciting politicians, Lafontaine brings a kind of Latin brio to the political scene. He is an accomplished speaker who tries not to bore his audiences.

Twice divorced, Lafontaine enjoys socializing with artists and members of the literary world and maintains contacts with intellectuals in various parts of the country.

His friends describe him as something of a Renaissance man; his enemies say he is a calculating opportunist.