The Hour of Positive Thinking

If nothing else, President Bush’s budget should stifle the notion that talk is cheap. It mentions by name one serious problem after another, yet makes clear that most of them will be around long after Washington spends the allotted $1.23 trillion.

One that may even be worse is the rate at which the federal government goes into debt. The White House has doctored forecasts of economic growth and interest rates to make it seem as if the deficit will shrink from $100 billion to a mere $64 billion. Economists generally think that the national debt could well grow by as much as Bush promises it will shrink, leaving the world’s most prosperous nation still living way beyond its means.

What the White House says is that it will have it both ways. It anticipates both a higher rate of growth and falling interest rates, even though if business were as good as the White House projects, the Federal Reserve Board probably would jack up interest rates to fight inflation.

The budget also perpetuates an inside joke that only Congress and the White House find funny. The President again puts politics and a campaign promise ahead of smart policy and rules out even minimal increases in taxes that could get government out of the red. Congress may fuss at Bush for capricious bookkeeping, but it knows as well as he that voters are less likely to punish politicians for higher deficits than for higher taxes.

Unfortunately, passing up yet another chance to bring the budget closer to balance may mean passing up several more. Despite White House forecasts, the economy is wallowing through a sluggish period that could as easily end in recession as in better times. Even if the nation’s best long-term interests require new revenues, nobody counsels tax increases with a recession hovering over the horizon.

Even in the absence of new taxes, Congress and the White House will find ways to keep busy. Bush’s proposal to shut down 35 military bases, each of them in the home district of some member of Congress, is bound to provide weeks or even months of argument over whether closing some other base would yield greater savings. Congress probably will cut the $4.5 billion the White House wants for “Star Wars” research, fight to spare domestic programs Bush would fold and quarrel over the proper level of environmental protection.

But these are the ragged edges of government’s obligations compared with the challenges of the national debt, the future of Social Security, rising health-care costs, education, cleaning up nuclear waste and other gathering storms. They are where you learn that in the long run there is nothing cheap about talk.