County Growth to Slow Some in ‘90s : Economy: Employment experts see jobs expanding at a substantial pace but mostly in the lower-paying categories. The county is expected to become a labor importer.
The phenomenal growth that made Orange County’s economy one of the strongest in the nation is expected to slow to a mere crawl through the 1990s, economists say. But a crawl by local standards is still a pretty good pace.
And a new, short-range study by the state Employment Development Department shows that the tens of thousands of local businesses and the thousands of new enterprises that start up in the county each year will continue to create jobs at a rate of about 22,000 a year through 1992.
That is a 1.9% annual growth rate--or about twice the national pace.
Still, progress doesn’t come without a price, and in Orange County that price is likely to be more traffic congestion and increased housing density.
In a county that prides itself on the vigor and visibility of its high-technology and construction industries, however, the job growth with few exceptions will remain concentrated in the lower-paid retail and service businesses, according to estimates in the EDD forecast of job growth in the county between 1987 and 1992.
The forecast was released halfway through the study period because of the time lag necessary to make an accurate count of jobs in the county in 1987. Of nearly 140,000 new jobs projected for the county during the five-year period, nearly 60,000 are in categories such as retail sales, food preparation and handling, clerical work and maintenance.
The single-biggest demand for employees will be for retail sales people, where a gain of 5,150 jobs is anticipated by 1992, a 13.4% increase.
Food servers are next on the list, with 4,930 new jobs expected by 1992, for a gain of 22.9% since 1987.
Other big numerical increases include cashiers, up 4,010; food-preparation and food-handling workers, up 5,700; fast-food cooks, up 1,250; janitors, up 2,240, and general office clerks, up 3,670.
The only skilled professional jobs showing major numerical increases during the five-year study period are top executive managers, up 4,550 or 15.1%; registered nurses, up 2,680 or 22.1%; accountants and auditors, up 1,540 or 18.9%, and elementary school teachers, up 1,290 positions or 14.2%.,
That the demand for jobs will center on the lower-paid positions bodes ill for the county’s already overloaded transportation system, according to James Doti, an economics professor at Chapman College in Orange and a specialist on the impact of growth on the county.
The state’s job projections mean that the county “increasingly is evolving from a bedroom community to a net importer of labor,” he said. “Before the end of the decade, we will be importing tens of thousands of workers who find housing in the county unaffordable and so live in Riverside and San Bernardino even though they work in Irvine and Santa Ana.”
Currently, Doti said, the county is a net exporter of jobs, with about 100,000 more people traveling from residences here to jobs in Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino counties than those who come to jobs here from homes in those areas. Most of the Orange County residences are commuting to jobs in Los Angeles, he added.
As the trend reverses, more and more workers will be flowing into the county each day from San Bernardino and Riverside counties, increasing the load on an already-overcrowded freeway and surface-street systems.
That in turn will increase pressure on government and the building industry in the county to find ways of providing housing that is affordable to more people--currently, according to the state realtors association, only about one in seven households in the county can qualify for a conventional mortgage on the resale of a single family home.
Still, crawling forward--even into troubled waters--beats falling backward, Doti said.
In its latest look at the employment climate here, the state EDD predicts that there will be 1.23 million jobs in the county by 1992. That is a 12.8% increase from 1987 but is up only 3.8% from the end of 1989.
While annual job-creation rates of 5% or more were the rule during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the norm will be for annual rates of well under 2% through most of the ‘90s, according to Doti and to the EDD labor market analysts who prepared the Orange County projections.
Reflective of the changing nature of the county’s work force, EDD labor-market analysts say that jobs in sales and services will account for 26.8% of all employment in the county by 1992, up from 25.8% in 1987.
Production-related jobs will fall slightly to 24.9% of the total employment pool from 25.2% in 1987.
And clerical and administrative support jobs, while increasing steadily during the five-year period, will fall to 20.7% of the total work force from 21.4% in 1987, thanks largely to the greater increase in sales and service employment.
In fact, the EDD figures show, almost every type of employment in the county will have increased by 1992. Of 595 specific job categories catalogued in the study, only 22 are expected to decline. And the hardest hit--precision electrical assemblers--will be down only 300 jobs to a total of 4,180 positions from 4,480 in 1987.
That is little solace to the people who actually lose their jobs, but it supports predictions that while the county’s defense industry will be deeply affected by steep cuts in national defense spending, there won’t be the huge job losses that decimated the aerospace industry in the 1970s.
Instead, industry analysts say, defense contractors have been gearing up for the budget cuts and many will be able to switch from defense to production of commercial products and will not suffer a net loss of jobs.
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN ORANGE COUNTY
Service and sales positions are expected to continue dominating growth in the county’s job market through 1992, with construction jobs coming in a distant third.
Change from Percent Industry 1987-1992 Change Services 54,850 +20.6 Wholesale & Retail 48,075 +17.8 Trade Construction 11,225 +17.6 Manufacturing 9,675 +3.9 Government 8,900 +7.8 Finance, Insurance 5,450 +5.9 & Real Estate Transportation & 1,925 +5.6 Public Utilities Mining -225 -12.2%
Source: Employment Development Dept.
ORANGE COUNTY JOB GROWTH BY OCCUPATION
The state Employment Development Department has forecast job growth for 595 different occupations from 1987 to 1992. Here are the 10 fastest-growing and 10 fastest-shrinking job categories.
TOP 10
Number of Percent Rank Occupation New Jobs Change 1. Salespersons--Retail 5,150 +13.4% 2. Waiters and Waitresses 4,930 +22.9 3. General Managers, Top Executive 4,550 +15.1 4. Cashiers 4,010 +21.2 5. Combined Food Prep and Service 3,670 +19.6 6. General Office Clerks 2,840 +9.2 7. Bookkeeping, Accounting Clerks 2,700 +11.0 8. Registered Nurses 2,680 +22.1 9. Janitors, Cleaners 2,240 +14.7 10. Secretaries 2,200 +8.2
BOTTOM 10
Number of Percent Rank Occupation Jobs Lost Change 595. Electrical Equipment Assemblers -300 -6.7% 594. Bank Tellers -170 -2.9 593. Electromechanical Assemblers -80 -6.0 592. Statistical Clerks -60 -8.0 591. Station Installers--Telephone -60 -9.5 590. Stenographers -50 -6.7 589. Precision Woodworkers -40 -20.0 588. Aircraft Assemblers -40 -5.3 587. Machine Saw Operators -30 -10.3 586. Electronic Semiconductor Processor -20 -1.6
