Mexico Pot Estimate Up Tenfold : Drugs: New U.S. intelligence figures establish the country as the world’s leading marijuana grower. The report may strain relations with America’s neighbor.

In a move that could further strain U.S.-Mexican relations, the Bush Administration will report this week that Mexico produces 10 times more marijuana than the United States previously had estimated, The Times has learned.

The conclusion, based on new satellite surveillance by the CIA, establishes Mexico as by far the world’s leading marijuana grower and gives credence to longstanding suspicions that its government has understated the country’s drug-producing role.

While the Administration nevertheless plans to certify that Mexico has “cooperated fully” in anti-drug efforts and, therefore, is eligible for foreign aid, the new finding is certain to inflame sentiment on Capitol Hill for publicly rebuking that country.

In a vivid expression of Mexican concern, a top Mexican official “nearly went into apoplexy” when informed of the new U.S. figures during a meeting this month with Drug Enforcement Administration chief John C. Lawn, according to a source with knowledge of the meeting.

Anti-drug officials are apprehensive that Mexico might vent its anger over any official criticism by backing away from its pledge to assist the United States in cracking down on drug trafficking along the U.S.-Mexican border, now the major entry point for cocaine being smuggled northward.

A senior State Department offi cial will meet Monday with the Mexican ambassador to the United States to offer advice on how to respond to what is expected to be a storm of congressional criticism, another government source said.

Anti-drug officials said the tenfold increase in the U.S. estimate does not suggest that marijuana production in Mexico has exploded suddenly, but rather that previous U.S. estimates--based largely on limited data made available by the Mexican government--were greatly mistaken.

The dramatic upward revision in the State Department figures put Mexican marijuana production at 47,500 metric tons in 1989, up from an estimated 4,750 tons in 1988. The latest estimate for Colombia, in contrast, increased only slightly, to 2,810 tons.

Sources said that the new estimates, part of a broader Bush Administration bid to re-evaluate the extent of the world drug problem, take account of new intelligence gathered through satellite surveys of areas previously inaccessible to U.S. anti-drug officials.

Some DEA officials, however, have raised doubts about the accuracy of the new assessment, possibly providing Mexico with grounds to challenge it. The agency’s top marijuana expert dismissed the latest estimate in an interview as “inordinate” and “wild.”

The official, John P. Sutton, chief of the DEA’s cannabis investigations section, contended that U.S. analysts mistakenly included in their estimates “ditch weed”--wild-growing cannabis with almost no psychoactive properties or commercial value--and other forms of vegetation.

But representatives of other anti-drug agencies, while insisting on anonymity, said they are confident that the new indications of a staggering level of Mexican marijuana production are accurate and are based on what one official called “irrefutable evidence.”

“This is the first time we’ve done it right,” one high-ranking government source said. Despite deep concerns about the reaction from Mexico and Capitol Hill, another official said, the Administration decided it had to “lay out the facts, regardless of the sensitivity of any government.”

The State Department had warned that its previous estimates of marijuana production in Mexico might have been inaccurate. Department officials complained privately that the refusal of the Mexican government to permit U.S. surveillance flights forced the United States to rely largely on Mexican figures.

A spokesman for the Mexican Embassy in Washington did not return repeated telephone messages requesting comment about the upcoming State Department report.

The document, to be made public Thursday, contains the Administration’s annual assessment of the steps taken by other nations to combat the international drug problem.

The potentially embarrassing disclosures about marijuana production in Mexico come at a delicate time for relations between the two countries. Last week, the Bush Administration was outraged by the Mexican ruling party’s reported covert contribution of more than $11 million to the reelection campaign of leftist Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega.

At the same time, Mexico City has taken umbrage at U.S. complaints about its failure to cooperate in the investigation of the kidnaping and murder of DEA agent Enrique S. Camarena in 1985. And while the Bush Administration has publicly praised the new Mexican government for stepping up its anti-narcotics campaign, U.S. officials have complained privately that the effort remains less vigorous than the United States had hoped it would be.

After learning of the contents of the drug report, the Mexican government appeared to become even less accommodating to U.S. interests. In an address to the U.N. General Assembly last week, Atty. Gen. Enrique Alvarez del Castillo emphatically ruled out any joint U.S.-Mexican military involvement in the war on drugs.

“They know this makes the country look bad,” said the U.S. official who described the stormy Feb. 7 meeting between DEA chief Lawn and Javier Coello Trejo, Mexico’s deputy attorney general. But a State Department official said that Trejo had not appeared upset during a separate session, asking only whether the new U.S. scrutiny was being applied to other nations.

In conjunction with this week’s report, President Bush must certify whether each foreign nation is cooperating with the U.S. anti-drug effort--a necessary condition for foreign aid. While noting that decisions are not yet final, a senior State Department official expressed confidence that the President would give Mexico his stamp of approval.

But Administration sources said they were deeply concerned that Congress--which has the power to withhold such certification--might seek to punish Mexico for its newly documented role as king of the world’s marijuana producers.

Members of Congress, led by Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), have for years sought in the annual hearings to call attention to the alleged role of the Mexican government in condoning drug trafficking. Renewed concern over the Camarena case this year had already put certification for Mexico in some jeopardy.

The upcoming State Department report, which takes into account crops destroyed as part of eradication campaigns, will establish Mexico as the world’s leading marijuana producer by many times over. The United States, with estimated production of between 5,000 and 6,000 metric tons, will rank second to Mexico’s 47,500-ton figure. Staff writers Doyle McManus and Ronald J. Ostrow contributed to this article.

Marijuana Crops U.S. government estimates of marijuana production among world’s three leading sources. In metric tons*1988:Colombia: 2,740 United States: 4,600 Mexico: 4,750 1989:Columbia: 2,810 United States: 5,500 Mexico: 47,500 *Reflects midpoint when estimates given in ranges. Source: State Department; National Narcotics interdiction Committee; Administration Officials.