Perestroika Has Deeply Split Soviet Populace, CIA Director Says : Reforms: The sharp polarization raises the possibility of a backlash against Gorbachev, Webster tells Congress.

The Soviet Union has become deeply politicized and polarized over the pace of internal reforms, creating the possibility of a violent backlash against President Mikhail S. Gorbachev and his policies, CIA Director William H. Webster warned Thursday.

The Soviet population is “increasingly impatient with low living standards, shortages, rising crime, ethnic unrest and other problems,” Webster said in congressional testimony. Dissatisfaction could lead to labor unrest and serious challenges to central authority in Moscow, potentially driving “reactionary forces” to try to oust Gorbachev.

A new regime undoubtedly would use massive force to reverse current reforms and to impose political discipline, sparking large demonstrations in Moscow and other cities, “and widespread violence almost certainly would result,” Webster predicted.

However, the intelligence chief said that Gorbachev appears to hold the upper hand against hard-liners for the time being, enjoying broad public support and recently being granted greater authority by Soviet legislative bodies.

Webster’s comments mark the most detailed public assessment from U.S. intelligence agencies of prospects for Gorbachev’s perestroika efforts. While the CIA chief warned of the potential for a violent reaction to the Soviet leader’s initiatives, he was generally optimistic about the permanence of the changes in the East.

Separately, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Colin L. Powell, said that the Warsaw Pact has virtually ceased to exist as a military alliance. Summarizing a new Pentagon review of the East-West military balance, Powell told a House committee: “The situation is rapidly changing in Europe, changing for the better. It is clear that the Warsaw Pact is disappearing before our eyes as a real and present military threat.”

Eastern European nations, newly freed of Communist Party control, are increasingly turning inward, cutting military spending and shunning conflict with the West, Powell said.

Both the general and the intelligence chief highlighted positive trends in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union but warned that Moscow still represents a threat to the United States because of its large nuclear arsenal. Both cited uncertainties in the East as reasons not to cut the military and intelligence budgets submitted by the Bush Administration.

The CIA director said that an attempt by hard-liners to reverse Gorbachev’s cuts in Soviet military spending would be difficult, expensive and “unpopular with a populace weary of shortages and sacrifice.” Such a move would further disrupt an already tenuous economy and would still leave the Soviet military at lower readiness levels, he said.

Webster also said that the anti-Communist revolutions in Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary and Poland appear to be irreversible, while the outlook for Romania and Bulgaria is more uncertain. He predicted that the Baltic republics--Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia--will win “peaceful separation” from the Soviet Union during the next few years.

The CIA director’s remarks were made in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee. He read a 20-minute unclassified statement, then answered lawmakers’ questions in a closed session.

Meanwhile, Powell and Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, testifying before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the Soviets have not curtailed their efforts to build and modernize their long-range nuclear weapons, and they urged lawmakers to support the Defense Department’s efforts to match the Soviets’ drive.

Calling nuclear weapons the “crown jewels” of the Soviet military arsenal, Powell said “it is a ticket they have to superpower status. They will never do anything to put their nuclear strategic forces at risk.”

Times staff writer Melissa Healy contributed to this story.