U.S. Warned on Quick Pace of European Unity : Diplomacy: German reunification and the emergence of democracies in the East will likely speed integration.

Top European policy-makers have quietly warned the Bush Administration that the economic and political integration of Europe is moving far more rapidly than had been expected, a development that could have important implications for U.S.-European relations.

European strategists now believe that sweeping changes, such as the melding of Europe into a single market, the push toward monetary union and the development of new political institutions, are likely to be completed by 1993 or 1994, rather than several years later.

The assessment, delivered in conversations over the weekend with senior Administration officials, attributes the speedup to the emergence of the East European democracies and the push to reunify Germany. Both are propelling Europeans to move more quickly with their own integration plans.

A senior policy-maker of the European Community provided a similar assessment for reporters Monday.

The Europeans say the speedup could present new challenges for the United States, which has been seeking to retain its influence in a more united Europe and trying to get U.S.-European relations on a “global” basis that transcends narrower-interest bilateral disputes.

European Community officials concede that the rush toward integration raises a spate of risks, from upsetting growth patterns and economic balance to increasing tensions, as happened recently between West Germany and France, over political and foreign policy questions.

At the same time, however, both U.S. and European officials believe that the acceleration could open up new opportunities, both for Europe as a whole and for U.S.-European relations. Washington expects U.S. firms to take a major role in the economic activity when Europe becomes a single market.

Europeans say the next critical decision is likely to come April 28, when the high-level European Council, meeting in Dublin, Ireland, to talk over the East European and reunification questions, also may begin moving to strengthen the EC’s influence in the foreign policy arena.

Although the Brussels-based community is not likely to be named the arbiter for Europe in matters of foreign policy, as it is on trade issues, some reformers want to equip it with the institutional machinery to hammer out “European positions” on foreign policy issues.

The official who briefed reporters Monday said a “dichotomy” now exists because Brussels has sole authority to speak for the 12 community members on trade and some economic issues, but the 12 can go any way they want on foreign policy issues, which often are related.

“Whatever form it will take, there will be more cohesion between the EC on the economic side and more cohesion on the political side,” he said. “The idea would be to have a Europe that could speak with one voice on broad foreign policy questions.”

The official conceded that at least part of the speedup is being spurred by the German question--specifically, a desire by all Europeans, even West Germany, to “anchor” a new united Germany in a “European context” to help avert a resurgence of German nationalism.

But he said the pressure from the 12 EC member-governments has been mounting rapidly, particularly in the past few weeks, as the prospect of German reunification moves closer to reality.

As a result, he said, even in the space of the past few weeks the pressure has intensified visibly.

“Had I been here a month ago, I would have been much more cautious on this question,” he asserted.

European officials say they are confident that the speedup will fit into the plans of the Bush Administration, which has supported both the political and economic integration of Europe and the strengthening of the European Community since its start.

During an appearance in Berlin last December, Secretary of State James A. Baker III openly urged the Europeans to develop “a new architecture” for Europe that would comprise new political and economic institutions designed to cope with the fast-breaking changes.

The acceleration of the coming-together in Europe is likely to influence the next annual seven-nation economic summit, which this year will be held in Houston on July 7 and 8. East-West relations is expected to be a major issue at the session.

Here is the likely timetable the EC official sketched out for the completion of major elements in the march toward the political and economic integration of Europe:

Assuming rapid reunification of the two Germanys, the full absorption of what is now East Germany into the European Community should take place well before 1992, the target date for turning Europe into a single market.

The pace of monetary union, the move toward a single currency and eventually a single central bank for all of Europe, will be accelerated significantly.

Although other East European countries, such as Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia, will not be accepted into membership any time soon, the European Community will negotiate a series of trade and economic treaties with them “as soon as is possible” to establish some formal relations.

Greater political union, including the institutional reform needed to give the EC a larger say on foreign policy issues, will be under way “in the next year or two” rather than in 1994 or 1995, as expected before.