Sales Hopes Hit a 7-Year Low, Survey Shows

Sales expectations for the second quarter are at a seven-year low but still point away from a recession, according to a survey of business executives released Tuesday by Dun & Bradstreet Corp.

“While sales optimism is at the lowest level since 1983, it remains well above the levels generally associated with impending recessions,” said Joseph W. Duncan, a Dun & Bradstreet economist.

In its quarterly survey of business expectations, Dun & Bradstreet found that expectations for higher prices among all types of companies were unchanged from those for the first quarter. “This suggests that inflation is not accelerating,” Duncan said.

Expectations by the business leaders for gains in second-quarter sales dipped slightly, but the outlook for profit increases was firm compared to the first quarter.

The latest survey of 1,500 business executives in manufacturing, retailing and wholesaling was conducted in February. The sales outlook among manufacturers declined, while retailers were more optimistic of higher sales.

“The shift in retailers’ and manufacturers’ optimism underscores the fact that consumers are now responsible for most of the current economic growth,” Duncan said.

By region, executives in oil states had the rosiest sales outlook, while the bleakest outlook was in New England, Duncan said.

Employment expectations nationally were unchanged from the first quarter, according to the survey, although expectations in the New England region fell sharply, indicating respondents expected virtually no employment growth in those states during the coming months.