Caution Signs Abound on Unification’s Fast Track : Germany: In the wake of elections in the East, the slow-down-and-bargain-hard forces are suddenly alive and well.

Perhaps we are missing some of the important truths emerging in the fascination we call Germany. That German unification lies ahead seems certain. But the pace and character of that development are rather less clear than what has been suggested by most interpretations of this month’s elections in East Germany.

The astonishing performance of parties favoring early unification with the West--nearly 49% of the vote--adds momentum to the drive for one Germany. By leading the charge, Helmut Kohl shows once again that he is Germany’s Ronald Reagan--the politician most consistently underestimated by his adversaries.

Yet it is another result of the election that may prove decisive. The Social Democrats, Communists and other contenders less sympathetic to rapid unification won far too many votes to be ignored, either in the short-run politics of governing East Germany or in the long-term politics of constitutional change. The slow-down-and-bargain-hard forces are alive and well in the East.

Whatever path to unity one assumes, the decisions now looming are not easy ones for untested coalitions or bare majorities. The greatest issues in political life--constitutional amendments, secession or annexation, major treaties--often demand “super majorities.” A familiar American practice of requiring a two-thirds majority causes discomfort, whether in ratifying treaties or overriding presidential vetoes, but it is a prudent standard for actions affecting the life or death of a community.

Those are the kinds of measures now confronting East Germany’s embryonic democracy. Any government might find it inadvisable to abolish its own state without a preponderant consensus. The freshly anointed leaders see the problem and recognize that opponents of hasty unification hold more than a “blocking third” in the Parliament now taking shape.

Ironically, the prospect of early economic accommodation between the two Germanys could reinforce the tendency to stretch out the process of union. Currency reform and movement toward a single German market are likely to take place in the next weeks and months. If they persuade those living in the East to remain there--obviously a priority goal for Kohl--they could also diminish the sense of urgency now driving the two sides toward political unity. With immediate economic benefits in hand, East Germans might see an advantage in taking more time to iron out the complications of constitutional merger.

This calculus rests partly on the view that, having tasted genuine power for the first time, politicians in the East may not be quite so eager to submerge their identity and hard-won status in the established political culture of the Federal Republic. Call it vested interest, if you wish; they may perceive it as an obligation to their constituents.

At the same time, budding entrepreneurs in the East will be striving to get in on the ground floor of an economic renaissance. They could prefer to shelter their efforts by preserving a separate political structure, at least for a few years. Mixed emotions pervade the East, among them anxiety that West Germans will simply take over lock, stock and barrel, effectively subordinating their brethren. If the East can attract capital and vital technology, it might be more reluctant to make the political accommodations required for unification.

These speculations underscore the fact that we still have only the vaguest knowledge of the actual political demography in East Germany. No one knows whether the elections point toward viable coalitions or merely reflect transient marriages of convenience.

In West Germany, a sharp cleavage persists over the tempo and mode of unification. Many Social Democrats, including former Chancellor Willy Brandt, urge a deliberate constitutional negotiation between the two states. With 8% unemployment in the Federal Republic, workers are not sure which is worse: continued immigration of cheap labor fleeing the East or quick unification that overloads the social welfare budget and inflates the economy. The coming election campaign is bound to highlight charges that Kohl has promised the moon to the East in reckless disregard of his responsibility for the well-being of West Germans.

Kohl himself, perhaps swayed by more cautious counsel from the central bank and business circles, may have second thoughts. He must wonder whether he can accelerate unification in the face of substantial doubts among his countrymen.

The chancellor surely understands that his partners in the East have acquired an independent mandate that he must respect. Their surprise victory creates a new political dynamic in both Germanys. It gives a lift to unification, but the gas in that balloon is not all helium.