Drought May Not End, Officials Say : Water: Even if precipitation returns to normal, booming population points to permanent shortages.

Southern California’s most severe water crisis since 1977 begins today with the official end of a fourth straight disappointing rain and snow season in the distant mountains that supply most of the region’s water.

Faced with possible shortages this summer, most cities and water agencies are scrambling to pass water conservation laws or dust off old measures left on the books from the statewide 1977 drought, a Times survey of Southern California localities has found.

The region’s biggest water user, the city of Los Angeles, has threatened rationing this summer if residents do not cut water use 10% in the next month.

The problem is that spring runoff into the giant reservoirs run by the state and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, already lowered by three years of drought, is expected to fall to a level as much as 67% below normal. The city of Los Angeles’ water supply in the eastern Sierra Nevada is less than half of normal, and areas such as Santa Barbara, which depend on local water supplies, face an even more crippling situation.

Already, Santa Barbara officials have banned watering of lawns and gardens except from hand-held buckets. Yards in San Clemente may only be sprinkled every other night this summer, and no new landscaping may be planted. Los Angeles for the last two years has banned hosing driveways and serving water except on request in restaurants. Santa Monica has mailed 1,800 warning letters to suspected water wasters. And washing the car with a running hose is illegal in Big Bear and, as of today, in Barstow.

Southern California is not alone in feeling the drought’s effects. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation expects to send only half the usual water supply to farmers in the Central Valley this year. The State Water Project is considering a similar cut for the valley farms it serves.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is hurriedly building a pipeline to connect for the first time with the State Water Project, hoping to make up for a nearly 50% decline in spring runoff down the Tuolumne River, the city’s main source of water.

Unlike those shortages, which would ease with enough rain this summer and snow next winter, the drought now being felt in Southern California may never truly end, say water officials.

Since the 1977 drought ended in a fury of winter storms, the area’s population has ballooned to more than 15 million, an increase of 3.5 million. Each year the population in the six counties served by the Metropolitan Water District leaps by 300,000, and fast-growing cities such as Palmdale double their water use every five years.

But no new water supplies have been found, and some have been lost.

“This drought is focusing attention on the fact that things will be different from now on,” said Carl Boronkay, general manager of the MWD, the region’s biggest water wholesaler. “We’re going to run into this more often.”

The Met, as it is called, has long symbolized Southern California’s anything-is-possible water ethic. In its 1952 “Laguna Declaration,” the water barons on the MWD board vowed to forever deliver to the region all the water necessary to sustain growth.

But in a major concession to the times, the MWD board last week began to question if it could any longer satisfy its historic pledge. The MWD projects that if Southern California continues to grow, water supply may fall short of demand in six of the next 10 years even if rain and snowfall are normal.

“Normal (precipitation) may no longer be adequate . . . wet years may not be enough,” to quench Southern California’s thirst, Boronkay said.

The term “drought” does not adequately explain the Southern California water picture. For skiers, this winter was a good one in the Northern California mountains where most water used in Southern California cities falls. But though snow coated the slopes, it was less concentrated than in most years.

In addition, the subtropical rainstorms that often batter Northern California in winter did not blow in from the Pacific. Together, the lack of snow and rain made the winter of 1989-90 “critically dry” by the standards of state water officials.

That alone would not produce the troubles Southern California faces now. But last winter was also bad, and the two before that even worse. The four years of dry winters have left the reservoirs that altered California history critically low. Oroville, Shasta, Folsom, all built to shunt water south, now stand with boat ramps and beaches high and dry.

Even so, state officials expect to ship Southern California all of the water it received last year. But they will not send enough to make up what the region is losing from other sources.

A dry spell in the four Upper Colorado Basin states--Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico-- has cut flow down the Colorado River to 45% of normal. “It’s the lowest consecutive three years of record since 1906,” said Alden Biggs, an engineer with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

Also, this year Arizona has exercised its legal right to some Colorado River water that last year made its way to MWD reservoirs in Southern California.

Another pressure on Southern California is the diminishing take of Mono Lake and Owens Valley water by the city of Los Angeles.

Historically, Los Angeles residents got about 75% of their water from those eastern Sierra sources. Pure mountain water, it also comes cheap--flowing by gravity down the Los Angeles Aqueduct and even producing a little profit in hydroelectric power along the way.

However, courts have recently diluted the city’s rights to Mono Lake streams, ruling that Los Angeles has illegally damaged the lake’s health and killed trout fisheries in the streams. The drought has also reduced Owens Valley snow runoff, further cutting the main Los Angeles water supply.

As a result, this year the city plans to buy about 60% of its water from the Metropolitan Water District--10 times more than it did just a few years ago. That leaves the MWD expecting to fall about 12% short of what its other customers want.

Some cities--including Riverside, San Bernardino and many in the San Gabriel Valley and Orange County--pump most of their water from underground aquifers and use the water projects only to supplement their supply. But chemical contamination has closed some wells, and lack of rain here in Southern California has lowered the water table.

A wet year of strong rains and better-than-average snowfall would relieve some of the pressure. And, to be sure, history offers long odds against the Northern California drought continuing another year. The only longer dry period this century lasted from 1929 to 1934.

But the MWD last month asked local cities and water agencies to quickly pass water-conservation laws. MWD officials think the 12% shortfall can be made up through voluntary savings. But officials fear this summer could be unusually hot, forcing water use to skyrocket. And there is the possibility that nature may deal California a rare fifth dry winter, making next year possibly the worst in history.

“If it goes into the fifth year, we’re going to be in real trouble,” said Fred Sims, an official of the Trabuco Canyon Water District in Orange County. “I feel that the majority of people throughout Southern California as a whole don’t realize the tight spot we’re in. . . . In fact, some of them think it’s a hoax.”

In response to the 1977 drought, Southern California cut its water use 15%. A concerted statewide campaign--including severe rationing in the hard-hit Bay Area--helped persuade residents the crisis was real. So did an MWD surcharge on water customers who did not cut their use by 10%. Los Angeles and some other cities helped by imposing mandatory conservation.

“You saw a lot of dirty cars and brown lawns then,” said Ed Thornhill, MWD conservation manager. “And you didn’t see people hosing down their sidewalks.”

But conserving this time around may be harder. New plumbing codes, aggressive repair of leaks and a rise in prices have already cut water waste about 5%. Since each person is already consuming less than in 1977, the cuts sought this year will be more painful.

“You can’t save it twice,” Thornhill said.

Also, persuading everyone to go along is impossible. In 1977, an estimated 100,000 Los Angeles households did not comply with the city’s mandatory 10% cutback despite the threat of having their flow restricted.

Cities that enjoy dependable ground-water wells may resist the effort. “Every (water) agency sees this crisis from a different viewpoint,” said Edward Girard, an MWD board member from Chino. “We only get 20% of our water from MWD. So a 10% cut is only 2% of our supply.”

The biggest potential for water saving is in the city of Los Angeles, the region’s largest single user of water. A 10% cut in water use by Los Angeles would save enough to supply 350,000 families for a year.

On Friday, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley said he is willing to force Los Angeles residents into mandatory rationing. He threatened that rationing could occur this summer if water use was not voluntarily cut by 10% almost immediately. City Council approval of rationing is required first, however.

“We find that most people can save more than 10% if they just think about it,” Bradley said. “Significant financial penalties may be necessary for people to get the message.”

But Bradley and city water officials don’t want Los Angeles residents to shoulder the responsibility alone.

“It’s important for us to show leadership,” said James Wickser, assistant general manager of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. “But we want to make sure we have followers. . . . There’s a question of equity if our customers are the only ones to save.”

Conservation in Los Angeles is necessary to prevent drawing down the city’s reserves. The city expects to receive all the water it needs this year, but wants an adequate supply to remain in reservoirs because another critically dry year could bring widespread shortages.

“We are at the limits,” Wickser said “If we don’t conserve this year, we will have nothing in reserve . . . for next year.”

Two years ago, Los Angeles ordered steps to save water--partly in response to a drought and partly to reduce strain on the sewers, which were regularly leaking into the ocean and causing political headaches for Bradley.

That city policy required plumbing leaks to be fixed, banned hosing of sidewalks and driveways or serving water without request in restaurants, and ordered that low-flow shower heads and toilet-tank displacement devices be installed in every home.

No money was spent to enforce the rules, however, which have been widely ignored. But last week the city’s water chief said Phase 2--a mandatory 10% cut in water use by everyone--is likely this year.

The Southern California area in the direst predicament is the Santa Barbara coastal strip, which is not connected to any sources of Northern California or Colorado River water, making it hostage to rains in the surrounding mountains. But the area has not gotten appreciable rain in recent years.

Lake Cachuma, the main local reservoir, is at its lowest level ever. This summer it will drop below the outflow tunnel and the water will have to be pumped out.

The city of Santa Barbara used to get 30% of its water from Gibraltar Reservoir, but it ran dry last November. The city recently assigned three drought officers to cite water wasters, and rates were hiked to discourage use.

Nearby Goleta began rationing water last year and banned daytime watering of yards--with some success. Each resident uses an average of only 99 gallons a day now, compared to 135 gallons a day five years ago and 246 gallons a day in ritzy Montecito, which also is rationing. Montecito authorities have installed punitive flow restrictors on four violators in the last six months. And in the Hope Ranch area, all new landscaping--even to replace existing plants--is forbidden.

Across Southern California, cities with water-saving laws on the books commonly discourage wasteful car washing, hosing of driveways or watering. They often also call for prompt fixing of leaks and installation of low-flow shower heads and devices that reduce the amount of water consumed by flushing toilets.

But the MWD is concerned that only a few cities make the controls mandatory and that enforcement of water-saving laws is generally lax.

“We’ve got to encourage stronger enforcement . . . and impose some sanctions so people know it’s important,” said Timothy Quinn, director of conservation for the MWD.

Ramona, in San Diego County, has used enforcement to cut water use since last May because Lake Sutherland, a nearby reservoir, is nearly empty. The city issued 200 warnings last summer and referred five businesses and one resident to the district attorney for prosecution, but so far no charges have been filed. “That shows we’re serious about this,” city spokeswoman Becky Coates said.

Santa Monica has sent about 1,800 first warnings and 150 second warnings to violators since invoking mandatory controls in June, 1988. Westminster in Orange County writes between 10 and 20 citations a year for violations there, officials said. San Clemente in February decided to impose a 50% surcharge on water customers who use more than 650 gallons a day--though less because of the drought than a local pipeline problem.

Other cities are considering a range of steps. Glendale on May 1 will begin rewarding customers who cut their use with lower rates. Rialto, which has seen its wells drop, this month will consider an ordinance requiring installation of low-flush toilets in all new developments. Chino Hills plans to offer rebates to developers who build homes with yards smaller than 800 square feet and to homeowners who replace lawns with less water-intensive landscaping.

Conservation measures such as these are the most reliable source of future water to accommodate growth, MWD officials say.

The State Water Project has not been completed, but politics and environmental concerns may prevent Southern California from ever tapping a single new drop of Northern California water. Legal rulings have made California ineligible for any new Colorado River water. That leaves conservation.

“This is a different approach,” said Bob Gomperz, spokesman for the MWD. “Before, this was a build, build, build agency. New projects, new canals.”

Water officials have also set their sights on reclaiming waste water and on more efficient use of water. “We have to manage our existing resources better,” Gomperz said.

Steps include a new reservoir in Riverside County, lining canals in the Imperial Valley and underground “water banking” in Kern County. The MWD is also working on a desalting process to make slightly brackish water potable, and is negotiating to buy agricultural lands in San Bernardino County as a means of gaining their lucrative water rights.

But even the MWD’s own directors are not convinced that there will be enough water if this summer is extraordinarily hot.

Said MWD director S. Dell Scott of Los Angeles: “I told my gardener not to plant any more grass. I’ve got no assurance I’ll be able to water it.”

Water History California is now in its fourth straight year of drier that usual conditions. The state Department of Water Resources rates each year based on runoff into the Sacramento River basin, which provides most of the supply for the State Water Project. Six of the last 10 years (including 1990) have been dry or critically dry. Since 1960: Critically Dry: 1976, 1977, 1987, 1988, 1990* *Projected Dry: 1961, 1964, 1979, 1981, 1985, 1989 Below Normal: 1960, 1962, 1966, 1968, 1972 Above Normal: 1975 Wet: 1963, 1965, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1978, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986 Source: State Water Resource Board CALIFORNIA’S WATER NETWORK THE RESERVOIRS California’s key reservoirs on March 27 held much less than their average water supply. Runoff into the reservoirs is also below normal this year. The combination of below-normal storage and runoff is expected to cause water shortages this summer. Reservoir levels will change throughout the year as runoff flows in and stored water is released. 1.) Clair Engle Lake--Water level 30% below average, runoff expected to be 45% of normal. 2.) Shasta Lake--Biggest federal reservoir in the state, crucial to agriculture and environment of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta downstream. Water level 27% below average, runoff expected to be 54% of normal. 3.) Oroville--Captures Feather River. Largest reservoir in the State Water Project, thus the most critical to Southern California. Water level 26% below average, spring runoff forecast to be 48% of normal. 4.) Folsom--Central Valley Project lake on the American River. Water level 26% below average, runoff 48% of normal. 5.) New Melones--Large CVP reservoir on Stanislaus River in central Sierra. Water level 53% below average, runoff expected to be 47% of normal. 6.) San Luis--A key holding reservoir for the State Water Project. Water level is above the average as engineers move water here in preparation for the coming summer in Southern California. 7.) Crowley Lake--Largest Los Angeles Department of Water and Power reservoir in the Owens River area. Water level 28% below average, with runoff expected to be 47% of normal. 8.) Lake Cachuma--Vital water supply for Santa Barbara and Goleta is at 32% of normal, its lowest level ever. Water will need to be pumped this summer because level will drop below the outtake. THE SYSTEM Water from California’s rivers is captured for cities and agricultural use by four major water projects. In addition, Hetch Hetchy and Mokelumne aqueducts are major sources of water for the San Francisco Bay Area. State Water Project--Feather River water collects behind Oroville Dam, is released down the Sacramento River and flows into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. There it is pumped into the California Aqueduct and lifted over the Tehachapi Mountains into Southern California. Central Valley Project (federal)--Main source for San Joaquin Valley farms. Funnels snow melt from Shasta Lake and several Sierra Nevada rivers into the Friant-Kern and other canals. Los Angeles Aqueduct--Takes virtually all water in the Owens River, plus some runoff from the Mono Lake area and ground water beneath Owens Valley. Flows by gravity into the San Fernando Valley for use in the city of Los Angeles. Water is held in reservoirs around the city. Colorado River--Historic source of water for much of Southern California and the desert. Colorado River Aqueduct delivers water to Lake Mathews in Riverside County and to the San Diego Aqueduct. The All-American Canal supplies Imperial Valley. The Coachella Canal serves Coachella Valley. CHECKLIST WHAT LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ARE DOING Rationing, Reclaiming Among Southland Reactions A sampling of what local governments in Southern California are doing in an effort to prepare for water shortages. AGOURA HILLS: In 1988, the city became the first in the state to adopt an ordinance requiring drought-tolerant landscaping, or xeriscape. The city a few weeks ago approved $100 rebates for purchase of ultra-low-flow toilets. ARCADIA: Voluntary cutbacks enacted by resolution in August, 1988, were unsuccessful. But the city has no plans for mandatory cutbacks. BARSTOW: After the water level of city wells dropped 40 to 50 feet, Barstow started drilling wells in other areas and building reservoirs. Under a mandatory conservation ordinance starting today, first offenders receive courtesy notices. Second offenses carry a $50 fine, third offenses a $100 fine, fourth a $200 fine, and the fifth offense is a criminal misdemeanor. BIG BEAR LAKE: Outdoor irrigation is prohibited on major holiday weekends. A building moratorium has been in place since February, 1989, when new service hook-ups were banned because drinking water supplies were deemed inadequate. Residents can report water waste to a telephone hot line, 866-LEAK. BRAWLEY: The city, with 20,000 residents, has no water meters on residential properties, but the state has ordered meter installations by 1991. CALABASAS: Six-story building is also going up with a dual water system to reclaim toilet water. CHINO HILLS: Plans to give rebates to developers who build homes with yards of less than 800 square feet. Residential customers who reduce their yard turf also will get rebates. FULLERTON: Under a city water-meter loan program, industrial customers can borrow additional meters to better monitor water use by various aspects of their operations. IRWINDALE: One of the San Gabriel Valley’s largest commercial water users, Miller Brewing Co., utilizes its own two wells. Last year the brewery used 952 million gallons. Conservation and recycling reduced the brewery usage 12% last year, officials said. IRVINE: Three high-rises are under construction are installing dual water systems to reclaim toilet water. LOMITA: Under “anti-theft” measures, the city can levy up to $1,000 in fines for such violations as illegally taking water from fire hydrants and making illegal water hookups. LONG BEACH: A leader in reclaiming water, the city last year used over 1 billion gallons of reclaimed water at 20 sites. PALM SPRINGS: The city recently retrofitted main traffic islands with moisture sensors that override sprinkler systems if water is not needed. The system, which has cut water use on the medians by up to 60%, will be employed on all public lawns. PALMDALE: In January, the water district added a $1,000 fine to a standing policy that anyone found wasting water would have water service disconnected. Previously, there was a $15 reconnection fee. PASADENA: Recently launched a door-to-door campaign to cut water usage. City workers are installing, free of charge, a number of water-saving devices, including toilet dams and low-flow shower heads. RAMONA: Adopted a four-level rationing program in May, 1989, and has gone to level two, mandatory conservation. The Ramona Water District ordinance allows for $600 fines for each offense. The district issued 200 warnings last summer and has turned over the names of five businesses and one resident to the district attorney for prosecution. RIALTO: Has lost about a third of water production because wells, which provide 90% of city water, have dropped 300 feet in the last four years. City has drilled new wells. Also plans to begin purchasing from State Water Project in 1991 and along with the city of San Bernardino is constructing a treatment plant for state water. SAN CLEMENTE: Has a water-rationing law because of pipeline limitations. Daytime lawn watering is banned in summer, and night-time lawn watering is permitted only every other day. Installation of new landscaping during summer is prohibited. The law also provides for a warning for first-time violation and a $100 fine for second-time offenders. A later ordinance calls for a 50% increase on water bills to residents and businesses who use more than 650 gallons a day. SANTA BARBARA: Faced with a water shortage of almost 50% this year, Santa Barbara became the state’s first city to make watering lawns illegal. This ordinance also prohibits residents from using hoses to water trees and shrubs. Three “drought cops” patrol streets to enforce the measure. SAN DIEGO COUNTY: All of the 16 communities in the San Diego County Water Authority have conservation ordinances. Most have or will adopt a model ordinance restricting some water uses to either odd or even days. If conditions warrant, the cities could limit water use to health and sanitation and could ban landscape irrigation and use of water for swimming pools. SANTA MONICA: Adopted mandatory water conservation in September, including a “zero net flow” program that requires developers to pay for conservation measures that will save an amount of water equal to what their project will use. The developer of one commercial building recently had to pay for new, low-flush toilets to be installed at Santa Monica’s Will Rogers elementary school. City has been able to reduce its total water usage by nearly 10% in two years, even though the city has mailed out 1,800 first-violation and 150 second-violation letters. VENTURA: On April 12, a mandatory water rationing plan becomes effective. Allocations for houses start at 294 gallons per day, based on a four-person family. Smaller families do not get a smaller allocation, but larger families can apply for a larger one. Commercial and industrial users must cut their usage by 15% to 20%. Users will be charged a penalty at up to 10 times the normal rate for water used above allocations. WESTMINSTER: For several years, an ordinance has prohibited excessive watering outdoors and other waste. City issues 10 to 20 citations per year. WEST HOLLYWOOD: Adopted mandatory “Emergency Water Conservation Plan” on Aug. 18, 1988. Those who refuse to repair leaks may be charged with an infraction, which after a warning could result in fines ranging from $100 to $500 a day. Violators of other law provisions are subject to a criminal misdemeanor charge, six months in jail and $1,000 fine. To date, however, no one has been prosecuted. Others With Conservation Programs In addition to those communities included in the accompanying list, a number of others surveyed by The Times have water conservation programs. The following communities have voluntary programs: Bell, Buellton, Calexico, Calipatria, Camarillo, Carpinteria, Compton, Corona, Culver City, El Centro, El Toro, Fontana, Hawthorne, Heber, Holtville, Huntington Park, Huntington Beach, Imperial, Laguna Beach, Lynwood, Moorpark, Mission Hills, Montclair, Mission Hills, Monterey Park, Niland, Norco, Ontario, Oxnard, Paramount, Pasadena, Pico Rivera, Rancho Cucamonga, Rancho California, Redlands, Riverside, Santa Maria, Seeley, Simi Valley, South Gate, Thousand Oaks, Torrance, Trabuco Canyon, Tustin and Westmoreland. The following communities have mandatory conservation programs: Cathedral City, Goleta, Lompoc, Los Angeles, Montecito, Palm Springs, Summerland and Solvang. 26 Ways to Save Water At Home In the Bathroom * Check your toilet for leaks. Put a few drops of food coloring in your toilet tank. If the coloring begins to appear in the toilet bowl without flushing, you have a wasteful leak that should be repaired at once. * Check faucets and pipes for leaks. * Put a plastic bottle in your toilet tank. Place an inch or two of sand or pebbles in the bottom of a quarte bottle and fill the bottle with water. Then place the bottle in your toilet tank, safely away from the operating mechanism. The bottle will save water on each flush without impairing the efficiency of the toilet. * Take shorter showers. Limit your showers to the time it takes to soap up, wash down and rinse off. * Install water-saving shower heads of flow restrictors. Your hardware or plumbing supply store stocks inexpensive shower heads and flow restrictors that are easy to install and still provide cleansing, refreshing showers. * Take baths. A partially filled tub uses less water than all but the shorest showers. * Turn off the water while brushing your teeth. Before brushing, wet your brush and fill a glass for rinsing your mouth. * Turn off the water while shaving. Fill the bottom of the sink with a few inches of water in which to rinse your mouth. In the Kitchen and Laundry * Use your automatic dishwasher only for full loads. * Use your automatic washing machine only for full loads. * Check faucets and pipes for leaks. * Don’t let the faucet run while you clean vegetables. Instead rinse them in a sink full of clean water. * Keep a bottle of drinking water in the refrigerator. This beats the wasteful habit of running tap water to cool it for drinking. * If you wash deshes by hand, don’t leave the water running for rinsing. If you have two sinks, fill one with rinse water. If you have only one sink, gather your washed dishes in a dish rack and rinse them quickly with a spray device or pan of water. Outside * Water your lawn only when it needs it. Step on the grass. If it springs back when you take your foot off, it doesn’t need water. * Deep-soak your lawn. When you do water your lawn, water it just long enough to seep down to the roots where it is needed. A light sprinkling, which sits on the surface, will evaporate and be wasted. * Water during the cool parts of the day. Early morning is better than dusk since it helps prevent the growth of fungus. * Don’t water the gutter. Position your sprinklers so that water falls on your lawn or garden, not on concrete or other paved areas. Also, avoid watering on windy days. * Plant drought-resistant trees and plants. Many beautiful trees and plants thrive with little water in our semiarid region. * Put a layer of mulch around trees and plants. Mulch slows the evaporation of moisture. * Use a broom Instead of a hose to clean driveways and sidewalks. * Don’t run the hose while washing your car. Soap down your car from a pail of soapy water. Use a hose only to rinse it off. * Tell your children not to play with the hose and sprinklers. * Check for leaks in pipes, hoses, faucets and couplings. Leaks outside the house can be extremely wasteful, especially when they occur in your main water line. To check for hidden leaks in your pipes, shut off all faucets and taps around the house for 15 minutes. If the water meter shows some movement during that time, you have a leak. Source: Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. Compiled by Times researcher, Cecilia Rasmussen