Botched Numbers Adding Up to One Thing: Headache for All

When the first reports of missed people and overlooked neighborhoods started coming in, the 1990 census shaped up as a headache for Democrats. It was their people--the homeless and other inner-city residents--who weren’t getting counted, and so it was their power in Congress and in state legislatures that appeared to be in jeopardy.

But with barely 60% of the population returning census forms so far--and with low response rates found in wealthy suburbs as well as inner cities, and in the Sun Belt as well as the Rust Belt--it is only now becoming clear that both major parties could feel the pain of a botched census.

Republican hopes for increased representation in Congress are pinned on a continued shift of population from the predominantly Democratic Northeast and Midwest to the increasingly Republican South and Southwest. California, alone, could pick up an additional seven seats in Congress as a result of an expected 22% growth in population, much of it coming in suburban counties with heavy concentrations of Republican voters.

Consequences of Undercount

Up to now, the census has experienced the slowest response in many of the states where the most population growth is anticipated. At the same time, it is getting much more cooperation from states that aren’t expected to grow much.

“Clearly, if the Eastern and major Midwestern states have relatively high response rates to the census compared to Sun Belt states, that is going to hurt the Republicans,” said Robert Naylor, a former state party chairman and longtime Republican leader.

An undercount of people statewide “could cost Californians influence in the next presidential race (in terms of electoral votes) as well as a congressional seat,” Naylor said. He was referring to one of the seats the state stands to gain, not to one it already has.

Ann Williams, a spokeswoman for Rep. Tom Ridge (R-Pa.), ranking Republican on the House subcommittee on census and population, expressed confidence that the Census Bureau still had plenty of time to count the majority of people who have not responded.

Republicans and Democrats on the committee share the view that if Congress is willing to give the Census Bureau more money--$150 million or more--the bureau has a fighting chance of equaling the 1980 census, when more than 98% of the population was believed to have been counted. Over the past decade, about $2.6 billion has been budgeted for the 1990 census.

Problem for Cities

Traditionally, the census has been least reliable in big cities, especially in poor neighborhoods where a combination of fear and hostility toward government has contributed to an undercount four or five times greater than occurs with the rest of the population.

In New York City, officials say the 1980 undercount deprived the city of $675 million in federal aid that is tied to population size and cost the largely Democratic city one congressional district and four legislative districts.

Los Angeles officials estimate that the city’s population was undercounted by 4.5% in 1980. A repeat performance would cost the city an estimated $150 million over the next decade and possibly weaken the strength of the city’s largely Democratic congressional delegation.

One fear of local Democrats is that the census will fail to count accurately the booming population of Latino immigrants, in which case at least one Democratic district could be lost.

Response Rates Vary

According to the Census Bureau, only 50% to 60% of the people across the South and Southwest who were mailed census forms have sent them back. About 58% of California recipients have responded.

In Orange County, only 64% of residents have mailed back their census forms, although local census officials had hoped for a 70% return rate by mid-April. As in other areas of the country, those who speak or read little or no English are the most likely to neglect returning a completed census form, said Santa Ana census district manager Fernando Tafoya.

“It’s a real problem,” Tafoya said. “The areas where we have the lowest return rate are the areas that are predominantly Spanish-speaking.”

With Santa Ana, Stanton, Garden Grove and Westminster reporting the lowest return rates in the county, the mayors of the four cities are expected to hold a news conference today to unveil a two-week plan to improve the response rate, Tafoya said.

Elsewhere in the nation, the census bureau reports a response rate that is significantly higher: 74% in Wisconsin; 70% in Ohio; 68% in Michigan.