County’s Avocado Ranchers Brace for 30% Drop in Harvest : Agriculture: Mother Nature causes production drop for third consecutive year.

San Diego County’s avocado growers are bracing themselves for a 30% drop in the harvest this year--the third consecutive year that avocado production has dropped because of the whims of Mother Nature.

For consumers, it means some of the highest prices for avocados in years. But growers say they are not reaping a bonanza because, even though the cost for avocados is nudging toward $1.50 per pound at some retail outlets, they are harvesting less fruit to cover their own overhead, and some farmers say they’re still struggling to break even.

The growers’ nemesis--as it has been in past years--is the weather. The biggest blow came a year ago this month when an unseasonal five-day heat wave sent temperatures in some inland groves soaring above 100 degrees, cooking many avocado blossoms and immature, fragile fruit that had barely set. Such heat can be withstood in late summer, when the fruit is mature.

Then, in February, several back-to-back nights of freezing temperature destroyed the stems of still more fruit, causing them to drop to the ground and spoil. Officials estimate that the so-called Valentine’s Day Massacre destroyed 5% of the fruit on trees.

San Diego County is the largest producer of avocados in California, accounting for about 48% of the statewide crop. In 1989, according to figures from the county Department of Agriculture, San Diego County’s growers produced nearly 162 million pounds of avocados, for $108 million in revenue to the farmers.

In 1989, avocados were the county’s second largest cash crop, after indoor decorative flowers, according to county figures.

But avocado industry officials say that, based on the current harvest rate, this year’s crop will be about 30% smaller than last year’s, both in San Diego County and statewide.

Avi Crane, director of industry affairs for the quasi-governmental California Avocado Commission, said this year’s crop will probably total in the “low 200-million-pound range.”

That compares to a 330-million-pound crop statewide in 1989 and a 358-million-pound crop in 1988. Historically, San Diego produced nearly half of that amount.

About 95% of all avocados grown in California are of the Hass variety, favored by retailers because of durability during shipment, attractive appearance in the grocery bins and generally consistent flavor and texture.

The Hass harvest season is poorly defined. After setting its buds in the spring, some fruit can be picked as early as the following Thanksgiving, just eight months later--and other pieces can remain on the trees for 15 months or longer, given cooperative weather. The rock-hard fruit does not ripen until it is plucked from the tree, but then needs to be delivered within a week or so to market before it begins to soften.

Crane and others say it will be difficult to accurately project the current harvest bounty because some growers may have picked the bulk of their fruit in the cold of February two months ago rather than risk exposure of the fruit to more cold nights--even though fruit that remained on the trees, it turned out, has since thrived and gained weight.

The peak of the harvest season is typically in May--12 to 14 months after the fruit first emerged--in order to capitalize on consumers turning more to salads. But some growers will try to keep some fruit on their trees until mid or late summer to take advantage of traditional year-end high prices as less fruit goes to market, and so that there is no glut in the spring and early summer.

Farmers are fetching $1.26 a pound from wholesale packing houses. On Wednesday, San Diego-based Big Bear was selling avocados for 99 cents a pound, a company spokesman said, and Vons was getting $1.49 a pound. “It’s the highest price I’ve seen in years,” said a produce manager in Vista who asked not to be identified. “And sales have slowed a little.”

The high avocado prices are also becoming evident at restaurants. At Cocina del Charro in Escondido, for instance, the price for a side-order of guacamole is now $1.95, contrasted with the more typical price of $1.20.

Said Crane, “The consumer thinks the farmer is making a fortune, but he faces fixed costs. It costs about $2,000 an acre to break even, and even though our growers are getting more per pound right now, they’ve got fewer pounds to sell.”

Even though--or because--the 1989 avocado crop was smaller than the previous year’s, avocado growers in San Diego grossed nearly 20% more at the wholesale market for their fruit in 1989 than 1988, based on figures from the county Department of Agriculture.

The drop in supply and the steady level of demand that has resulted in higher prices doesn’t necessarily mean all farmers are benefiting, noted Phil Henry, whose family owns and operates the Henry Avocado Co. in Escondido.

“These natural disasters of early heat waves and then the winter frosts doesn’t affect everyone equally,” Henry said. “If you own a grove that was severely hit by the frost, for instance, you may have lost virtually all your fruit, so you won’t benefit from the higher prices. But, if your grove wasn’t hit hard by the heat and the frost, you’re going to make a lot of money.”

Carlos Vasquez, regional manager for Calavo, a growers-owned coop that packs and markets avocados, said some of his members have had from 60% to 70% of their fruit destroyed, first by the early Spring heat wave last year, then last February’s cold snap.

Crane said growers are now bringing in about 4 million pounds of avocados a week throughout California--a trend that, if maintained, should result in a crop of about 210 million pounds this year.

But industry people say the current flow of avocados to market may be misrepresentative. For starters, some farmers may already have brought to market a disproportionate amount of fruit for this time of year because of the cold scare two months ago. Adding to growers’ woes is the eruption of avocado thievery, including organized avocado rustlers operating in groups who strip some groves of their fruit and take them to stands or other, less-mainstream wholesale markets and sell the goods for half the going price.

The theft problem has become so serious that some growers have hired security guards to patrol their groves at night, and the Avocado Commission is negotiating with the San Diego County Sheriff’s Department to hire three deputies solely to investigate and deter avocado thefts.

“Some growers are so worried about the thieves that they’re panic picking their own groves ahead of when they’d normally harvest,” said Howard Seelye, an Avocado Commission spokesman who maintains his own small avocado grove in Fallbrook.

The plight facing avocado growers stands in contrast to 1987, a bumper crop year that produced 556 million pounds of avocados statewide--and drove wholesale prices to growers to less than 20 cents a pound.

But this year’s harvest is expected to be the lowest since 1979, when 148 million pounds were produced--a result not only of weather woes but fewer acres in production.

About 36,000 acres in San Diego County--primarily North County--are planted in avocados.