PREVIEW / SCIENCE ACADEMY : Prestigious Panel Ready to Take On the Japanese : Group will spell out next week how U.S. can respond to major challenges from the export colossus.
When the National Academy of Sciences holds its annual meeting here next week, its president, 65-year-old geophysicist Frank Press, is expected to propel America’s most prestigious scientific organization into one of the most difficult and controversial issues confronting the nation: how to respond to the economic, technological and other challenges posed by Japan.
The challenges posed by Japan are formidable by any standard. Not only has Japan become an export colossus outcompeting many U.S. firms, but it has also become one of the world’s leading investors of both private capital and foreign aid. It is gaining technological superiority in a number of key industries, from microchips to biomedical products.
While Press won’t tip his hand--saying only that his keynote address “will be an unusual statement, and maybe even controversial”--his remarks on dealing with Japan and a short list of other major problems are likely to have far-reaching impact.
This is because National Academy of Sciences, respected but little understood outside the government and scientific communities although it has been around since 1863, has an extraordinary record of influencing the national agenda and ultimately public policy.
In 1986, for example, the academy’s watershed report on AIDS played a key role in galvanizing national action against the disease. “Our members said it was a serious problem and we needed to do something about it. And so we did,” said Press of the 1,600-member academy.
Now, in addition to competition with Japan, the academy--and Press in particular--are focusing on such disparate but important challenges as:
Assessing how well the United States prepares for earthquakes and other natural disasters. “If you think in terms of the potential for these disasters to cause casualties and damages, we should be doing more,” Press said in an interview this week.
“In the months and years ahead, we will address such issues as whether they can be predicted, whether the technology for reducing the damage exists and if it is being used, and whether the public knows how to prepare and what to do about it in terms of emergency responses.”
Examining new ideas for meeting the economic need to expand long-term airport capacity and at the same time addressing concerns about the additional noise and air pollution that normally accompany new runways and airports.
Developing an authoritative view on the risks and benefits of eating seafoods that may be contaminated with low levels of toxins but contain less cholesterol than red meats.
Examining the feasibility of requiring double-bottom hulls and other environmentally safer designs for oil tankers.
The academy does not conduct or sponsor laboratory research. Rather, it taps the voluntary services of members and non-members alike, who go out and survey the state-of-the-art literature and then form broad conclusions about a particular issue--in a way that has unrivaled impact.
Most of the academy’s 300-some annual reports are undertaken at the request of a government agency. The other 20% are initiated by the academy itself through a process of consensus that is its strongest hallmark.
“It takes time for issues to get into the political consciousness of the people and of the leaders, and something has to trigger it,” Press said.
Among issues likely to be raised at next week’s meeting: How President Bush intends to achieve his ambitious goal of making American students first in science and math by the year 2000? And the pervasive fear among individual researchers that they could be crowded out of the nation’s research budget by the many “big science” projects on the drawing boards, such as the space station.
