ELECTIONS 38TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT : Money, Friends Called Key to Race to Succeed La Follette

About a month ago, Al Thomas, a Burbank martial-arts teacher and first-time Republican candidate for state Assembly, got a blunt crash course from a GOP political consultant on how elections are won nowadays.

“Let me tell you how it’s going to happen,” the consultant told Thomas. “First, it’s how much money you got in your bank account. Then it’s who you know. The rest will fall into place.”

That cynical wisdom may be the best guide to the outcome of the crowded race to succeed retiring Assemblywoman Marian W. La Follette (R-Northridge) in the 38th Assembly District, where Thomas and four other Republicans are jostling for their party’s nomination in the June 5 primary.

The victor will be a heavy favorite to win the November general election in the GOP-dominated district, which arcs across the San Fernando Valley, and extends from La Crescenta in the east to Calabasas in the west. Two Democrats are vying for their party’s nomination but neither is well known.

Observers say the GOP battle will likely be won by one of two candidates: Paula Boland, a Granada Hills real estate broker and longtime GOP activist, or Rob Wilcox, a La Follette aide. Although neither has run for public office before, they have both attracted endorsements and campaign cash from the Valley’s biggest Republican political guns.

Boland, 50, is backed by Los Angeles City Councilman Hal Bernson, Assemblywoman Cathie Wright (R-Simi Valley) and former U.S. Rep. Bobbi Fiedler of Northridge.

Wilcox, 25, has been endorsed by La Follette and state Sen. Ed Davis of Santa Clarita. A third well-financed candidate is Bob Scott, a small-business attorney who ran unsuccessfully against Assemblyman Tom Bane (D-Tarzana) in 1976.

Also running are Thomas and Hal J. Styles, a Woodland Hills investment counselor and substitute English teacher. Both are poorly financed and are given little chance of winning.

The candidates have been scrambling to raise money and slap together campaign organizations since La Follette announced Feb. 27 that she would not run for reelection. The five-term lawmaker said she had spent enough time in the Legislature and was worried about the health of her husband, John, who has been treated for lymph cancer.

With a scant 13 weeks between La Follette’s announcement that she was retiring and the June 5 election, the primary has become more of a sprint than a campaign. Political consultants say it probably will be won by the candidate who raises the most money and uses it to convince the most voters with direct-mail brochures.

So far, Boland has the clear fund-raising lead. She said she has raised $89,000, while Wilcox said he has raised $56,000. Scott said he has raised $50,000-$60,000, but half of it is his own money.

Despite the crowded field and the rarity of an open Assembly seat, the race has generated little political heat and public awareness of it remains low. In a poll taken last month for Scott’s campaign, more than 91 percent of the 406 people contacted in the district did not know the candidates’ names.

Boland and Wilcox are getting strong support--financial and organizational--from their political patrons. Fiedler, for instance, has done everything from stuff envelopes to make fund-raising telephone calls in her behalf, Boland said.

Wilcox expects to raise $5,000 from a fund-raising dinner Davis is hosting this week. La Follette is organizing a dinner later this month that is expected to yield $10,000. In March, La Follette invited Sacramento lobbyists to a $500-a-head event that netted Wilcox $5,000, he said.

“Marian has been my No. 1 booster,” said Wilcox. “She’s been on the phone, she’s going to be walking precincts . . . Every chance she gets she makes a public appearance and talks on my behalf.”

But Scott has charged that Boland and Wilcox are “hand-picked surrogates” for Fiedler and Davis, who he claims are engaged in a feud dating from 1986 when they both were candidates for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate.

During that campaign, a top Davis aide told local prosecutors that Fiedler supporters had offered Davis $100,000 to drop out of the race. Fiedler was indicted on the charges, but a judge later dismissed the indictment. However, the resulting publicity severely damaged the campaigns of both Fiedler and Davis, who finished fourth and fifth, respectively, in the primary.

Fiedler and Davis have denied that a feud exists and Boland and Wilcox have said they are not proxy candidates for their patrons. But Scott claims he is the only “independent candidate” in the primary.

“I’m running against Ed Davis and Bobbi Fiedler,” he said. “If I wasn’t, I think we could walk away with it, without even thinking twice.”

Though Boland and Wilcox both lean to the right, they have staked out sharply different positions on a number of issues. Boland is generally regarded as more conservative than Wilcox and beat him out for the endorsement of the California Republican Assembly, which represents the party’s right wing.

Boland, for example, opposes abortion except in cases of rape, incest or medical complications that threaten a mother’s life. Wilcox supports a woman’s legal right to an abortion. Boland opposes limiting legislators’ terms in office, while Wilcox favors a 10-year limit. Wilcox made his tax returns public, while Boland refused.

They both oppose the so-called Big Green initiative on the June ballot. The measure would eliminate ozone-depleting chemicals by the year 2000 and phase out pesticides known to cause cancer.

Wilcox and Scott have criticized Boland for her association with the promoters of Porter Ranch, a massive residential and commercial development proposed for the hills north of the Simi Valley Freeway in Chatsworth. The project lies almost entirely within the 38th district.

Boland said she has no position on Porter Ranch. Wilcox has advocated a “dramatic” scaling down of the project’s commercial portion, saying it will exacerbate the area’s traffic and pollution problems.

Wilcox charged that Boland is “in the hip pocket” of the development’s promoters. He noted she is endorsed by Bernson, the project’s chief City Council supporter, and by Bob Wilkinson, its chief lobbyist. Wilcox also cited Boland’s support by Fiedler, whose husband, Paul Clarke, is the project’s chief spokesman.

Boland denied she is beholden to Porter Ranch’s developers. She said state legislators have no jurisdiction over the ranch, which she described as “absolutely a local issue.”

But Wilcox said the state could exercise significant influence over the development, including requiring it and similar projects to recycle wastes. He added that the state also has jurisdiction over possible expansion of the nearby Simi Valley Freeway. The size of the project’s commercial segment is tied to eventual addition of a fourth freeway lane.

Boland and Wilcox also have maneuvered over who is better qualified to take on two issues that traditionally rank at the top of Valley Republicans’ list of political demons: crime and the breaking up of the Los Angeles Unified School District.

Wilcox has touted his endorsements by four major law enforcement organizations, including the Los Angeles Police Protective League, which represents Los Angeles police officers. Wilcox has been a political adviser to Police Chief Daryl Gates and is an ex-aide to Sen. Davis, the city’s former police chief.

Boland expects to be endorsed by a women prosecutors’ association and has scheduled an anti-crime news conference Monday at which a deputy district attorney and a rape victim are expected to appear. She also has promised, if elected, to introduce legislation toughening penalties for crimes committed at or near schools.

The two major candidates also favor carving the 610,000-student Los Angeles Unified School District into smaller districts, saying the breakup would improve accountability and student performance. La Follette has tried unsuccessfully for years to break up the district, and Wilcox directed her privately financed task force that recently recommended such action.

But some observers say campaigning on the breakup issue is easy rhetoric in a region that has long been a stronghold of anti-busing sentiment. In reality, they say, the political likelihood of a breakup is slim, mostly because such action would result in more segregation of the schools and would run afoul of court desegregation orders.

“There’s something for everyone to dislike about LAUSD and its leadership. . .There’s no price to pay for beating up on LAUSD,” said one GOP political consultant. “It’s like saying Jabba the Hut is fat--you won’t get a lot of disagreement on it.”

Some insiders believe the generation gap between Boland and Wilcox may become an issue in the campaign.

Boland indirectly criticized Wilcox’s youth, saying he is “short on qualifications and experience.” Wilcox said he has 10 years of political experience and will bring a “fresh approach” to the Assembly.

Among the other candidates, Scott supports unrestricted abortion in the first three months of pregnancy, while Styles and Thomas do not. Styles and Thomas favor the so-called “Big Green” environmental initiative on the June ballot while Scott opposes it as too expensive.

Styles favors raising sales taxes to generate more money for anti-drug law enforcement and education programs, while Scott and Thomas oppose that approach. All three favor limiting legislators’ terms of office.