Next Step : A First for Communism: Preparing a Dynastic Succession : The tea leaves say Kim Il Sung, longtime dictator of North Korea, may be ready to hand over power to his son. The tea leaves do not say whether it would make any difference.

Now is a time of unusual suspense in the arcane world of North Korea-watching. There is widespread speculation that after more than four decades of cult-like control of the affairs of state, President Kim Il Sung is thinking about retiring.

The rumors are perhaps fueled by wishful thinking in Seoul, capital of anti-Communist South Korea--and hardly a place for disinterested political analysis. But reports from elsewhere in the region are reinforcing a sense of anticipation that some form of power transition may come soon.

Japan’s Kyodo News Service, in a report from Beijing in March, quoted Chinese sources as saying that the ruling Korean Worker’s Party had notified China weeks earlier of Kim’s intention to step back from the “front line of politics.”

Two recent milestones have been widely cited as preludes to what is expected to be the world’s first Communist dynastic succession, when Kim’s son, Kim Jong Il, 48, would inherit his father’s mantle after years of grooming.

One was the elder Kim’s 78th birthday, celebrated April 15 in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang with moderate fanfare. The other was a national election for the Supreme People’s Assembly, the rubber-stamp Parliament, balloting for which was moved up--by more than six months--to April 22.

This electoral haste appears to have been less a matter of democratic fervor than a sign that the Pyongyang regime sees the need to consolidate its grasp on power as news seeps in to its isolated populace of dramatic changes in Eastern Europe. Adding to external pressures is South Korea’s dynamic economic success and its diplomatic courtship with the Soviet Union, which along with China has been a major benefactor of the north.

The paramount question is whether a political succession, if one is indeed in the works, would lead the country away from Kim Il Sung’s personal brand of hard-line socialism, a philosophy he identifies with the word juche, or “self-reliance.”

“North Korea has got to change its juche ideology because it needs technology from developed countries to get out of economic stagnation,” said Yu Suk Ryul, dean for research at the South Korean Foreign Ministry’s Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.

“If it abandons juche, it has to turn to Kim Jong Il,” Yu said. “Kim Il Sung would retain power from behind the scenes, but he’d use his son as a new face for a new policy.”

Yet the scenario for a significant move away from autarky may be pure optimism. Kim Il Sung and the official North Korean media have minced no words in denouncing the collapse of socialism in Europe, and they have found ideological soul mates on this score in Beijing. Last month’s election--in which 99.78% of registered voters reportedly went to the polls and unanimously endorsed all the official candidates--did not suggest a drift away from social discipline.

“The elections powerfully demonstrated once again the invincible might of our people rallied around the party and the leader in one mind and the incomparable superiority of our country’s socialist system,” observed Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency, monitored in Tokyo.

The new Parliament could set the stage for Kim to oversee a stable transfer of power to his son “while he’s still healthy and firmly in control,” said Teruo Komaki, a senior researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies in Tokyo. The father could still wield influence informally, like China’s supreme leader Deng Xiaoping, the theory goes.

“But I don’t think there will be any new direction,” Komaki said. “North Korea will reaffirm its adherence to orthodox communism.”

Choe Kwan Ik, an official at the General Assn. of Korean Residents in Japan--which serves as an unofficial contact point for Pyongyang in Tokyo--said the early election may have been linked to efforts to rationalize the North Korean economy or to adjust the current seven-year economic plan.

But the election had “nothing to do with the transfer of power,” Choe said. “I don’t believe President Kim will retire for the moment. He has been the symbol of North Korea and the government, and there’s no reason for him to retire now--he’s still healthy, and there are many things for him to do.”

Kim, who fought the Japanese occupation of Korea in the 1930s, was trained in Moscow before World War II. When Soviet forces occupied the northern half of Korea after the Japanese surrender in 1945, Kim was made chairman of the Soviet-sponsored People’s Commiteee of North Korea, and soon headed the north’s provisional government. Efforts by Moscow and Washington to form a unified government for the entire Korean Peninsula deadlocked, and when the Democratic People’s Republic was established in the north in 1948, Kim was its first premier. He became president when that position was created in 1972.

In a move that added thick frost to the East-West Cold War, Kim led his country against South Korea in 1950. The three-year Korean War brought American and Chinese forces into conflict, then ended in 1953 with an armistice that left suspicion and deep distrust between Seoul and Pyongyang.

Although the Cold War may now be an obsolete concept in Europe, the Korean Peninsula remains one of the world’s prime flash points. South Korean and U.S. officials fret about North Korean troops massed just north of the demilitarized zone dividing the two Koreas and charge that Pyongyang is building a nuclear reprocessing plant that someday could give it enough plutonium to develop nuclear weapons.

The prevailing character profile of Kim Jong Il, the heir apparent, is hardly reassuring. He has been branded by Seoul’s intelligence organs as the inspiration behind the November, 1987, terrorist bombing of a South Korean airliner by Pyongyang’s agents that killed 115 people. The younger Kim also has been described by his biographers in the south as an erratic movie buff who had a South Korean actress and her director husband kidnaped in a crazy plan to develop the film industry in the north.

Meanwhile, in the ritualistic language of the North Korean media, Kim Jong Il has been given a symbolic promotion. In the past, the Korean Central News Agency consistently referred to Kim Il Sung with the title “Great Leader,” while ranking Kim Jong Il as “Dear Leader.”

That distinction became blurred on the occasion of the son’s 48th birthday Feb. 16, in a congratulatory essay carried by Minju Chosun, the parliamentary organ. It conferred the “Great Leader” title on the son, too, and said that holding him in such high esteem is “the highest honor and happiness.” Subsequent media references in the north have echoed the theme.

South Korea’s major news agency, Yonhap, citing “North Korea watchers in Seoul,” commented that “this year’s birthday praises concentrated on wrapping the prince of hard-line Stalinism in accolades that touted his capability as a national leader to audiences at home and abroad.”

ALL IN THE FAMILY

North Korea is one of the world’s few remaining examples of a dynasty, in which significant government power passes from one relative to another. Here are some of the others:

Morocco

The sovereign of this North African land is King Hassan II, who succeeded his father, Mohammed V, in 1961 . . . Heir to the throne is Hassan’s son, Crown Prince Sidi Mohammed . . . Morocco is a constitutional monarchy, with the crown normally passing to the king’s eldest son . . . Political power is highly centralized; the monarch serves as commander in chief, appoints the prime minister and can declare a state of emergency and dissolve the elected Chamber of Representatives.

Jordan

King Hussein, crowned in 1953, inherited power after the assassination of his grandfather, Abdullah, and the deposition of his father, Talal . . . Hussein’s designated heir is his brother, Crown Prince Hassan . . . Under the constitution, executive power is centered in the monarch, who is also armed forces commander . . . He names the prime minister and Cabinet, orders general elections, approves laws and can dissolve the National Assembly.

Saudi Arabia

The current ruler, King Fahd, assumed the throne in 1982 after the death of his half-brother, Khaled . . . He is the fourth member of the House of Saud to rule the desert kingdom since the dynasty was founded by Ibn Saud in 1932 . . . Fahd’s half-brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, is heir . . . Saudi Arabia is a traditional monarchy with all power ultimately vested in the king . . . No national elections have been held, there are no political parties, and legislation is by royal decree.

Brunei

Brunei, a former British protectorate consisting of two enclaves on the island of Borneo, is ruled by Sultan Muda Hassanal Bolkiah, crowned in 1968 following the abdication of his father . . . The crown is expected to pass to his son . . . The sultan, who is also prime minister and defense minister, appoints the legislature . . . The oil-rich sultanate has one of the world’s highest per-capita incomes . . . Much of the constitution has been suspended since 1962; political parties are largely inactive.