Balanced Budget May Hide Painful Cuts to Come : Forecasts: Projected state and federal funding cuts could mean a county shortfall in health and welfare programs.

At a glance, Ventura County’s $653-million budget for the fiscal year beginning in July appears benign.

Released Thursday, it shows a spending increase of $41 million, provides another 190 workers, virtually maintains current levels of service and is balanced.

But the budget is based on optimistic forecasts of state and federal funding, said the analysts who prepared it. And almost surely it will be pared by painful cuts in health and welfare programs before the Board of Supervisors approves it in early August.

“Where we are headed in the immediate near future is to a large degree determined by the federal and, even more so, state government,” Chief Administrative Officer Richard Wittenberg said in a report to the supervisors.

“That direction, much to our dismay, is definitely downward,” he added.

A state budget deficit now estimated at $3 billion for the 1990-91 fiscal year could mean a county shortfall of $1 million in its health and welfare programs, Budget Manager Bert Bigler said.

Mandated cuts in the federal budget could mean additional losses in a variety of social programs next fall, he said.

“This is bad news,” Bigler said. “The fact is that there aren’t sufficient funds to deal totally with what we feel are ongoing needs and requirements. And it doesn’t deal with state reductions either.”

Nor does the budget provide much money--a total of $14 million--to be kept in reserve or spent on a long list of proposals that county department heads say are essential.

Collectively, the departments want equipment and 328 new employees at a cost of $46 million. For the long term they also say they need at least $50 million to build new structures and to keep existing ones in repair.

“The dollar magnitude of these issues is far beyond any financial means the county has of addressing them,” Wittenberg said. But he said the needs are real.

For example, county social services needs $1 million more to meet current demand for welfare payments. The General Services Agency needs $4.9 million to upgrade its computer systems and the Municipal Court needs $246,000 to hire new judges to catch up with a backlog of cases.

Also needed, but not in the budget, is $630,000 for emergency and foster-care services for children, $60,000 to continue assistance for the frail elderly and $29,000 for a full-time dogcatcher to enforce the county leash law in Meiners Oaks, Oak View, Mira Monte and the Ventura beaches.

A district attorney’s program hailed for its success in spotlighting repeat juvenile lawbreakers has lost its state grant and needs $63,000 to continue.

When considering these requests, the supervisors say they will have to make their toughest choices.

The department heads “say they can’t live without all of this,” Chairwoman Madge L. Schaefer said. “We say, ‘Here’s a red pencil, start prioritizing.’ It is painful for everybody. Some of these choices are just awful.”

For example, Schaefer and Supervisor John K. Flynn disagree over whether the county should commit $600,000 to a $4.5-million Camarillo housing project for the homeless mentally ill.

Flynn, who has worked on the project for three years, is trying to gain the commitment before budget hearings. Schaefer and Supervisor Maggie Erickson have insisted on weighing that project against others at budget hearings.

At the same time, pressure grows to protect the county’s buildings by paying for maintenance that has been put off for years, Wittenberg said.

Two weeks ago, Wittenberg presented to the board a five-year building and maintenance plan that ranked by need 97 projects that would cost $132 million.

In his budget summary, the chief administrator asks the supervisors to restrict new hiring, to increase the county’s construction and maintenance budgets and to set up a $3-million fund that would pay the debt on construction bonds.

“We’ve got to do more toward preserving our assets,” Wittenberg said. “We have roof problems and computers that have to be maintained. There is less money for personnel costs, so we are asking the board to limit these things.”

VENTURA COUNTY PRELIMINARY BUDGET

APPROPRIATIONS (in thousands)

FY 89-90 FY 90-91 CHANGE adopted preliminary $ % General Fund General Government $78,714.0 $76,840.2 $(1,873.8) (2.4) Environmental Balance 16,940.8 18,615.9 1,675.1 9.9 Human Resources 125,058.0 140,664.7 15,606.7 12.5 Justice 107,049.4 115,986.8 8,937.4 8.3 Other 20,370.3 25,239.6 4,869.3 23.9 Total General Fund $348,132.5 $377,347.2 $29,214.7 8.4 Total Non-General Fund 264,294.7 276,018.1 11,723.4 4.4 Grand Total $612,427.2 $653,365.3 $40,938.1 6.7